Miami Dade

[MillennialModerate]

I’m sure there are a million threads on this but…. it’s on my mind as I’m vacationing in Miami for a week and then Palm Beach County next week.

We all know what’s happened to Florida. And I get that with so many R leaning people moving during Covid. Well a lot of talk was about how DeSantis flipped Miami Dade. But what some don’t realize is…. Rubio won Miami-Dade also. How the hell is that possible?

Culturally Miami-Dade is very different from the rest of Florida - especially North Florida. And the fact Broward and Palm Beach stayed blue but Miami Dade flipped. Any in-depth explanations….?

[Bismarck]

Isn’t it as simple as Miami-Dade being very Cuban?

[Smash255]

I’m sure there are a million threads on this but…. it’s on my mind as I’m vacationing in Miami for a week and then Palm Beach County next week.

We all know what’s happened to Florida. And I get that with so many R leaning people moving during Covid. Well a lot of talk was about how DeSantis flipped Miami Dade. But what some don’t realize is…. Rubio won Miami-Dade also. How the hell is that possible?

Culturally Miami-Dade is very different from the rest of Florida - especially North Florida. And the fact Broward and Palm Beach stayed blue but Miami Dade flipped. Any in-depth explanations….?

The Cuban population shifted hard and it is larger in Miami-Dade than anywhere else is the simplest explanation.    Also important to note that Broward has pretty constantly been the most Democratic of the big three counties in SE Florida.   As far as Palm Beach goes, DeSantis did win Palm Beach Countyand Rubio only lost it by 0.4 points, so it wasn't like it went strongly Democratic in 2022.  It was 9-10 points more Democratic than Miami-Dade in both races, it was about 6 points more Democratic in 2020 (the stronger shift in Miami-Dade likely due to the previously mentioned Cuban shift)

[It’s so Joever]

Palm Beach also is trending R, which is honestly a bit more odd than the Miami Dade thing.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Isn’t it as simple as Miami-Dade being very Cuban?

Not just Cuban, there are many other ethnic hispanic groups. Puerto Ricans, Colombians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Haitians, etc. Cubans are the largest and most prominent hispanic group in the county, but those other ones also swung R heavily which is why the county has moved right significantly especially for Rubio. Unlike 2016 where he won Cubans, and struggled with the other groups, he was able to win all of these in 2022 (except Haitians, but still did better with them) and flip the county.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Palm Beach also is trending R, which is honestly a bit more odd than the Miami Dade thing.

I feel like this can’t be solely due to Don Giovanni’s post-White House retinue. Although I’ll defer to actual South Floridians like Abdullah and Hollywood on precinct-level shifts and trends.

[TML]

Palm Beach also is trending R, which is honestly a bit more odd than the Miami Dade thing.

According to a now-retired FL-based Democratic strategist, this can be partly attributed to Democrats losing ground with white voters without higher education, and there is a substantial share of this demographic group in Palm Beach (especially among retirees).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Palm Beach also is trending R, which is honestly a bit more odd than the Miami Dade thing.

According to a now-retired FL-based Democratic strategist, this can be partly attributed to Democrats losing ground with white voters without higher education, and there is a substantial share of this demographic group in Palm Beach (especially among retirees).

I would expect generational turnover is also a factor here.

[Del Tachi]

Palm Beach also is trending R, which is honestly a bit more odd than the Miami Dade thing.

Northeastern/Midwestern snow birds have been trending R too