1964: Johnson doesn't run

[President Johnson]

LBJ actually considered briefly not running in the summer of 1964. What if he actually announced not to seek a full term? Does Bobby already get the nomination or is he more likely to end up in second place with Hubert Humphrey on top of the ticket?

[Agonized-Statism]

Kennedy would have a much better shot at the nomination than he did in 1968 with his brother's assassination on everyone's minds and early '60s optimism still in full swing. I suspect he goes for it, losing a bit of ground especially in the South but still winning big. Humphrey's map would look about the same, losing a bit of Johnson and to a lesser extent RFK's rally round the flag effect.


Attorney General Robert Kennedy (D-MA) / Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC)
Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) / Congressman William Miller (R-NY) ✔

[Sir Mohamed]

Kennedy would have a much better shot at the nomination than he did in 1968 with his brother's assassination on everyone's minds and early '60s optimism still in full swing. I suspect he goes for it, losing a bit of ground especially in the South but still winning big. Humphrey's map would look about the same, losing a bit of Johnson and to a lesser extent RFK's rally round the flag effect.


Attorney General Robert Kennedy (D-MA) / Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC)
Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) / Congressman William Miller (R-NY) ✔

Yup, that sounds pretty good.

I read about Johnson considering not running as well, but is that really true? He was one of the most power hungry and politically skilled leaders of this country, I can't believe he would have given up being prez after 14 months and while a landslide reelection was pretty much assured. If he was more popular and in better health, he would have gone for another term in 1968.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If RFK was going to be the candidate, Richard Nixon would have been nominated.


RFK's task would be to hold some combination of the Southern states, particularly the Carolinas and Georgia and be competitive in Louisiana and Texas.  Nixon had lots of friends in the petroleum industry, and I think that would have made a BIG difference.