pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,839
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« on: March 16, 2023, 07:37:05 PM » |
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The favorite-son effect is worth about 10% in most Presidential elections, so for Duce-Santis to win nationally he really needs to be up about 12% to win nationally. A politician who has connections to the state's political culture has advantages in his state that do not exist in other states.
If you don't believe me.... in 1964, Barry Goldwater barely won Arizona while losing a raft of states that have not since voted for any Democratic nominee for President since then. In 1972 South Dakota was George McGovern's fourth-best state (I'm not counting DC) and he lost South Dakota by 8.63%). Walter Mondale won his own state, Minnesota, just barely, in 1984.
OK, those three are obvious extremes. Ford won Michigan about as strongly as he won Indiana in 1976, so being from Michigan had to be worth something there. In a disastrous bid for re-election in 1980 in which Carter won DC and six states, he decisively won Georgia -- indeed that was his strongest state. He must have had some good vibes or something in Georgia. In 1984 those vibes must have completely vanished, as Mondale lost Georgia by 20%. Texas barely went R in 1992 and 1996... but went to Dubya twice by huge landslides. John McCain, who had no ties to Texas, didn't win it so impressively in 2008.
I'm going on a limb here, but should Duce-Santis win nationwide he is winning Florida by at least
12% so that he can win four of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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