Florida (UNF) Trump+7 vs. Biden, DeSantis+9 vs. Biden
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  Florida (UNF) Trump+7 vs. Biden, DeSantis+9 vs. Biden
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Author Topic: Florida (UNF) Trump+7 vs. Biden, DeSantis+9 vs. Biden  (Read 1135 times)
Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
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« on: March 09, 2023, 12:52:15 PM »
« edited: March 09, 2023, 12:56:41 PM by Arizona Iced Tea »

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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2023, 12:58:08 PM »

Is the average Republican voter really now to the left of the average atlas Republican/conservative on social issues . That’s hard to believe
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2016
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« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2023, 01:24:41 PM »

Is the average Republican voter really now to the left of the average atlas Republican/conservative on social issues . That’s hard to believe
University of Florida is a left-leaning Pollster so you would expect those Results.

However FLORIDA is truly gone for Democrats already if Trump and DeSantis have a 7-9 Point lead respectivly.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2023, 01:32:27 PM »

No one is contesting TX and FL anyways and IA and IN they were double digits
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2023, 01:52:48 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2023, 02:00:54 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

If Biden wins 50/45 it won't be a duplicate 3o3 map it will include NC and OH states we fell short in 3)6 pts in 22 in a Prez yr not Midterm that's why FL and TX and IA aren't contesting

The PVI in 2012/16/22 were between 65)60 M and 80/75M votes

Trump came so close in 2016 due to Benghazi and came close in 2020 due to enhanced Stimulus check that RS now opposes because they didn't raise taxes they just ran up Debt and now we have to raise taxes only on millionaire


FL and TX were so hot due to Demings, Crist and Beto now we have Stella candidate in Mo, proximity to KS, OH and MT and KY, MS, and NC outside of TX and FL we will see how red states outside of TX and FL after 23 we win KS and AK Peltola in 22 in a neutral cycle
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2023, 02:34:20 PM »

Florida is gone for good. Biden and the Democrats shouldn't bother to contest this state.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
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« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2023, 04:28:31 PM »

Is the average Republican voter really now to the left of the average atlas Republican/conservative on social issues . That’s hard to believe
The average Republican is to the left of most never-Trump type conservatives on issues. The never-Trump type conservatives are typically pretty conservative on issues but vote based on personality.
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Spectator
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« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2023, 03:00:53 AM »

Florida is something of a problem for Republicans now, nationally. All the conservative retirees keep flocking there, padding margins in an already safe state at the expense of other Midwest states.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2023, 03:04:19 AM »

Florida is gone for good. Biden and the Democrats shouldn't bother to contest this state.

Good. Florida was almost always a money pit for Democrats.
Now they will get to spend their resources in states where they have an actual chance to win.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2023, 04:31:48 AM »

Florida is something of a problem for Republicans now, nationally. All the conservative retirees keep flocking there, padding margins in an already safe state at the expense of other Midwest states.
I agree with this. For many reasons, Charlie Crist should have won in 2022, which in fact Trump likely believes too.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2023, 06:45:37 AM »

Sounds about right. maybe 5-7 point margin in the end for either. but FL will swing R.
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Spectator
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« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2023, 09:43:56 AM »

Florida is something of a problem for Republicans now, nationally. All the conservative retirees keep flocking there, padding margins in an already safe state at the expense of other Midwest states.
I agree with this. For many reasons, Charlie Crist should have won in 2022, which in fact Trump likely believes too.

There was nothing Charlie Crist could have done, or even Ron DeSantis to lose that race. DeSantis and Scott winning in 2018 solidified that state as impenetrably blue. I do not think the conservative influx of retirees would have ballooned at anywhere near the same pace had Gillum won.
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2023, 01:26:19 PM »

FL and its people have sadly descended into full-blown "fascist mode" and it's gone for Biden & Co. next year.

The swing states are going to be AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, NH, NC and GA.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2023, 01:45:16 PM »

Florida is something of a problem for Republicans now, nationally. All the conservative retirees keep flocking there, padding margins in an already safe state at the expense of other Midwest states.
I agree with this. For many reasons, Charlie Crist should have won in 2022, which in fact Trump likely believes too.

There was nothing Charlie Crist could have done, or even Ron DeSantis to lose that race. DeSantis and Scott winning in 2018 solidified that state as impenetrably blue. I do not think the conservative influx of retirees would have ballooned at anywhere near the same pace had Gillum won.

Could Gillum have stopped the trends with Cubans and Hispanics?
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Spectator
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« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2023, 03:26:28 AM »

Florida is something of a problem for Republicans now, nationally. All the conservative retirees keep flocking there, padding margins in an already safe state at the expense of other Midwest states.
I agree with this. For many reasons, Charlie Crist should have won in 2022, which in fact Trump likely believes too.

There was nothing Charlie Crist could have done, or even Ron DeSantis to lose that race. DeSantis and Scott winning in 2018 solidified that state as impenetrably blue. I do not think the conservative influx of retirees would have ballooned at anywhere near the same pace had Gillum won.

Could Gillum have stopped the trends with Cubans and Hispanics?

I do think a lot of it was in part bc of DeSantis winning and making Florida a conservative safe space haven, yes
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2023, 08:49:20 AM »
« Edited: March 12, 2023, 08:53:41 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Florida is something of a problem for Republicans now, nationally. All the conservative retirees keep flocking there, padding margins in an already safe state at the expense of other Midwest states.
I agree with this. For many reasons, Charlie Crist should have won in 2022, which in fact Trump likely believes too.

There was nothing Charlie Crist could have done, or even Ron DeSantis to lose that race. DeSantis and Scott winning in 2018 solidified that state as impenetrably blue. I do not think the conservative influx of retirees would have ballooned at anywhere near the same pace had Gillum won.

Could Gillum have stopped the trends with Cubans and Hispanics?

I do think a lot of it was in part bc of DeSantis winning and making Florida a conservative safe space haven, yes

FL has always been Conserv it voted only +1 for Obama Bill Nelson was a Mark Kelly D that was an Astronaut if you go back to the Sixties as I said earlier since the Cuban embargo JFK, HHH, Carter and LBJ made TX and CA Battleground not FL hut JFK should of went to Los Angeles not Dallas, the FBI had knowledge Oswald was in Dallas he would of won CA against Goldwater

Jeb owned FL well before DeSantis that's why Bush W became Prez because of 500 votes in FL


The state legislature like TX has hardly ever been D that's why it doesn't matter if Crist or Gillum would of been G the super R majority would never pass tax increase


But TX is a Mexican state not a Cuban state, but Hurricanes affect FL and it's likely another Hurricane before 24 is over will hit FL again not IAN, but a mild one benefits DeSantis again
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2023, 09:53:41 AM »

Safe R is Safe R

At least Dems won't waste tons of ressources yet again just to crash and burn. Invest into GA, AZ, the Rust Belt trio and expand the map with NC and TX. Even if latter doesn't flip, perhaps we can make up more ground downballot.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2023, 03:27:13 PM »

Whatever. F*** this state.

At least this poll looks more accurate than most Florida polls in the past which used to tease Democrats. Though even then it still might be over-estimating Democrats. If Biden can lose by as much as Kerry did, or less, I'd consider it a moral win at this point.

Once and for all this state needs to be abandoned by the Democratic Party and the effort that would have been put into it needs to be placed elsewhere, namely North Carolina, Texas, and the Trump-Biden states.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2023, 03:33:38 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2023, 03:38:09 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Whatever. F*** this state.

At least this poll looks more accurate than most Florida polls in the past which used to tease Democrats. Though even then it still might be over-estimating Democrats. If Biden can lose by as much as Kerry did, or less, I'd consider it a moral win at this point.

Once and for all this state needs to be abandoned by the Democratic Party and the effort that would have been put into it needs to be placed elsewhere, namely North Carolina, Texas, and the Trump-Biden states.

LoL DeSantis won by 20pts, the Ds running for S aren't known yet waves happened at end not beginning they are only 7 not 20 pts that's an improvement

Matt Boswell endorvement by Shontel Brown keeps email me of his supporters
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2023, 09:25:19 PM »

We all know that Florida polls always overestimate Democrats, so Florida is truly gone in that case.

Democrats have a better shot in Ohio at this point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2023, 04:14:21 AM »

We all know that Florida polls always overestimate Democrats, so Florida is truly gone in that case.

Democrats have a better shot in Ohio at this point.


LoL FL isn't gone lead is only 7 with 20 mnths
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2016
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« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2023, 12:56:48 PM »

We all know that Florida polls always overestimate Democrats, so Florida is truly gone in that case.

Democrats have a better shot in Ohio at this point.


LoL FL isn't gone lead is only 7 with 20 mnths
Republicans will have a 500,000+ Registration Advantage by November 2024.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2023, 01:56:28 PM »

It won't matter it's a 303 map with NC and OH as wave insurance like last time Brown, Tester and Kunce just like Presley and Beshear can win, in 50/45 65/60 M Eday we can win 337 EC votes like Obama did and DeWine isn't on the ballot to win by 25.

MT Treasure has WI and PA lean R lol Baldwin won by 10 pts and beat Tommy Thompson and Shapiro is in PA and Sam Brown is running in NV and Maricopa county is D not R under Kelly since McCain death

Biden is gonna station his campaign in Philly and campaign with Shapiro just like he did in 22
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2023, 07:37:05 PM »

The favorite-son effect is worth about 10% in most Presidential elections, so for Duce-Santis to win nationally he really needs to be up about 12% to win nationally. A politician who has connections to the state's political culture has advantages in his state that do not exist in other states.

If you don't believe me.... in 1964, Barry Goldwater barely won Arizona while losing a raft of states that have not since voted for any Democratic nominee for President since then. In 1972 South Dakota was George McGovern's fourth-best state (I'm not counting DC) and he lost South Dakota by 8.63%). Walter Mondale won his own state, Minnesota, just barely, in 1984.

OK, those three are obvious extremes. Ford won Michigan about as strongly as he won Indiana in 1976, so being from Michigan had to be worth something there. In a disastrous bid for re-election in 1980 in which Carter won DC and six states, he decisively won Georgia -- indeed that was his strongest state. He must have had some good vibes or something in Georgia. In 1984 those vibes must have completely vanished, as Mondale lost Georgia by 20%. Texas barely went R in 1992 and 1996... but went to Dubya twice by huge landslides. John McCain, who had no ties to Texas, didn't win it so impressively in 2008. 

I'm going on a limb here, but should Duce-Santis win nationwide he is winning Florida by at least
12% so that he can win four of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2023, 11:35:33 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2023, 11:47:24 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

The problem in FL and TX the blk S candidates running arent star quality they are Shawn Wilson caliber even Kunce has a better shot like Presley does than Shawn Wilson

I am optimistic about our chances other than NC because we won KS 22 we will see what happens in KY and MS Gov OH and MT and MO S are competitive outside NC 303/355 and we won AK too and SC is going first it flirted with Harrison and Cunningham and Harrison is DNC Chair it's a 303 map but as Obama won in 2008/12 355 votes is 52/46 Victory and Biden won by 50)45 K last time 65/60 M we outvote RS since NV, CO, NM and VA flipped in 2006
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