Florida (UNF) Trump+7 vs. Biden, DeSantis+9 vs. Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is contesting TX and FL anyways and IA and IN they were double digits

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden wins 50/45 it won't be a duplicate 3o3 map it will include NC and OH states we fell short in 3)6 pts in 22 in a Prez yr not Midterm that's why FL and TX and IA aren't contesting

The PVI in 2012/16/22 were between 65)60 M and 80/75M votes

Trump came so close in 2016 due to Benghazi and came close in 2020 due to enhanced Stimulus check that RS now opposes because they didn't raise taxes they just ran up Debt and now we have to raise taxes only on millionaire


FL and TX were so hot due to Demings, Crist and Beto now we have Stella candidate in Mo, proximity to KS, OH and MT and KY, MS, and NC outside of TX and FL we will see how red states outside of TX and FL after 23 we win KS and AK Peltola in 22 in a neutral cycle

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida is something of a problem for Republicans now, nationally. All the conservative retirees keep flocking there, padding margins in an already safe state at the expense of other Midwest states.

I agree with this. For many reasons, Charlie Crist should have won in 2022, which in fact Trump likely believes too.

There was nothing Charlie Crist could have done, or even Ron DeSantis to lose that race. DeSantis and Scott winning in 2018 solidified that state as impenetrably blue. I do not think the conservative influx of retirees would have ballooned at anywhere near the same pace had Gillum won.

Could Gillum have stopped the trends with Cubans and Hispanics?

I do think a lot of it was in part bc of DeSantis winning and making Florida a conservative safe space haven, yes

FL has always been Conserv it voted only +1 for Obama Bill Nelson was a Mark Kelly D that was an Astronaut if you go back to the Sixties as I said earlier since the Cuban embargo JFK, HHH, Carter and LBJ made TX and CA Battleground not FL hut JFK should of went to Los Angeles not Dallas, the FBI had knowledge Oswald was in Dallas he would of won CA against Goldwater

Jeb owned FL well before DeSantis that's why Bush W became Prez because of 500 votes in FL


The state legislature like TX has hardly ever been D that's why it doesn't matter if Crist or Gillum would of been G the super R majority would never pass tax increase


But TX is a Mexican state not a Cuban state, but Hurricanes affect FL and it's likely another Hurricane before 24 is over will hit FL again not IAN, but a mild one benefits DeSantis again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whatever. F*** this state.

At least this poll looks more accurate than most Florida polls in the past which used to tease Democrats. Though even then it still might be over-estimating Democrats. If Biden can lose by as much as Kerry did, or less, I'd consider it a moral win at this point.

Once and for all this state needs to be abandoned by the Democratic Party and the effort that would have been put into it needs to be placed elsewhere, namely North Carolina, Texas, and the Trump-Biden states.

LoL DeSantis won by 20pts, the Ds running for S aren't known yet waves happened at end not beginning they are only 7 not 20 pts that's an improvement

Matt Boswell endorvement by Shontel Brown keeps email me of his supporters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all know that Florida polls always overestimate Democrats, so Florida is truly gone in that case.

Democrats have a better shot in Ohio at this point.

LoL FL isn't gone lead is only 7 with 20 mnths

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter it's a 303 map with NC and OH as wave insurance like last time Brown, Tester and Kunce just like Presley and Beshear can win, in 50/45 65/60 M Eday we can win 337 EC votes like Obama did and DeWine isn't on the ballot to win by 25.

MT Treasure has WI and PA lean R lol Baldwin won by 10 pts and beat Tommy Thompson and Shapiro is in PA and Sam Brown is running in NV and Maricopa county is D not R under Kelly since McCain death

Biden is gonna station his campaign in Philly and campaign with Shapiro just like he did in 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem in FL and TX the blk S candidates running arent star quality they are Shawn Wilson caliber even Kunce has a better shot like Presley does than Shawn Wilson

I am optimistic about our chances other than NC because we won KS 22 we will see what happens in KY and MS Gov OH and MT and MO S are competitive outside NC 303/355 and we won AK too and SC is going first it flirted with Harrison and Cunningham and Harrison is DNC Chair it's a 303 map but as Obama won in 2008/12 355 votes is 52/46 Victory and Biden won by 50)45 K last time 65/60 M we outvote RS since NV, CO, NM and VA flipped in 2006