More conservative county: Orange County, CA or Maricopa County, AZ?

[Cyrusman]

While both are not as conservative as they used to be, which county is more conservative?

[ottermax]

Both counties vote similarly with Orange County being slightly more Democratic...

however their voting coalitions are quite different in meaningful ways.

Orange County has much more of a college-educated, high wealth demographic, and significantly more Asian. Maricopa has a much larger middle class and overall socioeconomic diversity, but is much more white than Orange County.

From a social perspective on many issues one might consider "liberal" today like LGBTQ rights, race, education, covid policy, Maricopa has a much more open-minded base to these issues.

Overall Orange County may vote more for Democrats, but I believe their Democratic coalition which is largely dominated by Latinos, Asians, and college-educated whites, is not a monolithic in their views as the Democratic coalition in Maricopa.

By and large though they have remarkably similar voting patterns.

[Cyrusman]

Poll results are nearly even! Curious as to anymore replies and opinion.

[Biden his time]

Harvard University's 2020 Cooperative Election Study sheds some light on the answer.


841 adults in Maricopa County, AZ were asked their ideology and they responded:

23.1% Liberal
32.1% Moderate
34.0% Conservative
10.7% Unsure


366 adults in Orange County, CA were asked their ideology and they responded:

37.9% Liberal
32.5% Moderate
25.4% Conservative
4.1% Unsure


Ask the people living there themselves and it's not much of a contest.

[kwabbit]

Both counties vote similarly with Orange County being slightly more Democratic...

however their voting coalitions are quite different in meaningful ways.

Orange County has much more of a college-educated, high wealth demographic, and significantly more Asian. Maricopa has a much larger middle class and overall socioeconomic diversity, but is much more white than Orange County.

From a social perspective on many issues one might consider "liberal" today like LGBTQ rights, race, education, covid policy, Maricopa has a much more open-minded base to these issues.

Overall Orange County may vote more for Democrats, but I believe their Democratic coalition which is largely dominated by Latinos, Asians, and college-educated whites, is not a monolithic in their views as the Democratic coalition in Maricopa.

By and large though they have remarkably similar voting patterns.

How educated is the Asian population in Orange County? It's my understanding that the Vietnamese there are fairly working class.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Both counties vote similarly with Orange County being slightly more Democratic...

however their voting coalitions are quite different in meaningful ways.

Orange County has much more of a college-educated, high wealth demographic, and significantly more Asian. Maricopa has a much larger middle class and overall socioeconomic diversity, but is much more white than Orange County.

From a social perspective on many issues one might consider "liberal" today like LGBTQ rights, race, education, covid policy, Maricopa has a much more open-minded base to these issues.

Overall Orange County may vote more for Democrats, but I believe their Democratic coalition which is largely dominated by Latinos, Asians, and college-educated whites, is not a monolithic in their views as the Democratic coalition in Maricopa.

By and large though they have remarkably similar voting patterns.

How educated is the Asian population in Orange County? It's my understanding that the Vietnamese there are fairly working class.

Probably lower than LA County or San Diego County but possibly higher than NYC? I can see on Statistical Atlas that the >40% Vietnamese cluster around Garden Grove and Westminster averages 25-30% college+, while the >40% Korean cluster aroudn Fullerton averages 60-70% college+. Irvine has relatively more ethnic Chinese and Indians and is something like 80% college+ among >25 year olds.

Possible sample size issues aside, I'm not surprised by Abdullah's post showing that Orange County is significantly more liberal than Maricopa.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Harvard University's 2020 Cooperative Election Study sheds some light on the answer.


841 adults in Maricopa County, AZ were asked their ideology and they responded:

23.1% Liberal
32.1% Moderate
34.0% Conservative
10.7% Unsure


366 adults in Orange County, CA were asked their ideology and they responded:

37.9% Liberal
32.5% Moderate
25.4% Conservative
4.1% Unsure


Ask the people living there themselves and it's not much of a contest.

This is a super interesting data set. How were you able to match up the columns (ie, CC20_300b_3) with the questions?

[Biden his time]

Harvard University's 2020 Cooperative Election Study sheds some light on the answer.


841 adults in Maricopa County, AZ were asked their ideology and they responded:

23.1% Liberal
32.1% Moderate
34.0% Conservative
10.7% Unsure


366 adults in Orange County, CA were asked their ideology and they responded:

37.9% Liberal
32.5% Moderate
25.4% Conservative
4.1% Unsure


Ask the people living there themselves and it's not much of a contest.

This is a super interesting data set. How were you able to match up the columns (ie, CC20_300b_3) with the questions?

I downloaded the .CSV file and imported it into SPSS, which you can get here:

https://getintopc.com/

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Harvard University's 2020 Cooperative Election Study sheds some light on the answer.


841 adults in Maricopa County, AZ were asked their ideology and they responded:

23.1% Liberal
32.1% Moderate
34.0% Conservative
10.7% Unsure


366 adults in Orange County, CA were asked their ideology and they responded:

37.9% Liberal
32.5% Moderate
25.4% Conservative
4.1% Unsure


Ask the people living there themselves and it's not much of a contest.

This is a super interesting data set. How were you able to match up the columns (ie, CC20_300b_3) with the questions?

I downloaded the .CSV file and imported it into SPSS, which you can get here:

https://getintopc.com/

Thank you!

[Biden his time]

Anytime!

-SNIP-

This is a super interesting data set. How were you able to match up the columns (ie, CC20_300b_3) with the questions?

You're definitely right about the data set being interesting

I've been awaiting the 2022 results pretty eagerly TBH.
They should be out within the next month or so.

[TDAS04]

Maricopa.

[Cyrusman]

Harvard University's 2020 Cooperative Election Study sheds some light on the answer.


841 adults in Maricopa County, AZ were asked their ideology and they responded:

23.1% Liberal
32.1% Moderate
34.0% Conservative
10.7% Unsure


366 adults in Orange County, CA were asked their ideology and they responded:

37.9% Liberal
32.5% Moderate
25.4% Conservative
4.1% Unsure


Ask the people living there themselves and it's not much of a contest.

It's a small sample size, but the OC results surprise me. I wouldn't have expected liberals to score over 10% more than conservatives considering that OC is still a light red county without Trump and a lot of so called "moderates" vote Democrat.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Harvard University's 2020 Cooperative Election Study sheds some light on the answer.


841 adults in Maricopa County, AZ were asked their ideology and they responded:

23.1% Liberal
32.1% Moderate
34.0% Conservative
10.7% Unsure


366 adults in Orange County, CA were asked their ideology and they responded:

37.9% Liberal
32.5% Moderate
25.4% Conservative
4.1% Unsure


Ask the people living there themselves and it's not much of a contest.

It's a small sample size, but the OC results surprise me. I wouldn't have expected liberals to score over 10% more than conservatives considering that OC is still a light red county without Trump and a lot of so called "moderates" vote Democrat.

A lot of SoCal counties look redder in non-presidential elections than they actually are.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maricopa.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Harvard University's 2020 Cooperative Election Study sheds some light on the answer.


841 adults in Maricopa County, AZ were asked their ideology and they responded:

23.1% Liberal
32.1% Moderate
34.0% Conservative
10.7% Unsure


366 adults in Orange County, CA were asked their ideology and they responded:

37.9% Liberal
32.5% Moderate
25.4% Conservative
4.1% Unsure


Ask the people living there themselves and it's not much of a contest.

It's a small sample size, but the OC results surprise me. I wouldn't have expected liberals to score over 10% more than conservatives considering that OC is still a light red county without Trump and a lot of so called "moderates" vote Democrat.

There’s no chance those results are close to accurate. In 2020, the entire state of California was 29/41/30 per exit polls.

[RINO Tom]

I have never been to Orange County, but I will say that Maricopa felt surprisingly conservative in "vibe."  Granted, I was based in Scottsdale, but even it voted the lightest shade of (non-Atlas) blue, IIRC.  I actually felt the same way in San Diego, I know how it votes in a pure numbers sense but it really had a much more conservative atmosphere than I was expecting.

[Хahar 🤔]

the lightest shade of (non-Atlas) blue

Wouldn't it be easier to just say "Republican" than to try to dance around it like this?

[RINO Tom]

the lightest shade of (non-Atlas) blue

Wouldn't it be easier to just say "Republican" than to try to dance around it like this?

I mean, I'm literally saying it voted slightly Democratic.

[SevenEleven]

I accidentally voted for Orange County. Maricopa is more conservative.