Why are Springfield, IL and Carson City, NV so Republican?

[maclennanc2]

Why are there cities so conservative despite being the capital cities of blue states?

[I’m not Stu]

Springfield and Carson City are less urbanized.

[TML]

According to data from DRA, the city of Springfield proper is D-leaning, but the outer parts of Sangamon County are strongly R-leaning (and are thus enough to make Sangamon County R-leaning overall).

[Sol]

Carson City is similar to Jefferson City in that it doesn't have much going for it economically except the state capitol and is right by places that would be obviously more attractive for liberals--Lake Tahoe for those with more money, Reno for those with less. The only thing that would make it attractive for liberals is state gov. employees and probably a big chunk of them are enticed by one of those two places.

[Gass3268]

Biden won Springfield, Illinois by ~12 points and I expect Sangamon County to go the way of McLean County here soon.

[Хahar 🤔]

It’s always a given that counties with state capitals are atlas red counties but why Sangamon is not? I’ve always wondered about that.

The same reason that

Oklahoma County, OK
Burleigh County, ND
Hughes County, SD
Kanawha County, WV
Laramie County, WY

all vote Republican

Democratic voting patterns aren't inherent to being a state capital but they're highly correlated due to the presence of large urban areas, large flagship state colleges, and relatively high numbers of non-whites, as well as other factors. These factors are usually enough to make a county blue (Democratic) but not always.

Sangamon County, IL lacks all of these to a significant degree. The colleges of Springfield are pretty small and have relatively low enrollment. Sangamon County is also 77% Non-Hispanic white, much higher than either the statewide average in or the national average. Notably it also is diversifying less quickly than the nation as a whole and even has a shrinking population

Most importantly, though, Springfield itself is a pretty small (and shrinking!) city and cannot quite dominate the rest of the county the same way Tallahassee dominates Leon County, Lansing dominates Ingham County, or Madison dominates Dane County, and there are plenty of small towns and rural areas in the surrounding county that vote Republican and make up a high proportion of the county's population.

You can see this in the USElectionAtlas map of Springfield County, IL voting in the 2020 US Presidential election:


Image Link

Blue = Republican
Red = Democrat