How many states will switch? (excluding NM, IO, & NH) (user search)
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  How many states will switch? (excluding NM, IO, & NH) (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Excluding New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire, how many states do you think will switch party vote in the 2008 presidential election from the 2004 results?
#1
None		  
#2
1-2		  
#3
3-4		  
#4
5-6		  
#5
7+		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: How many states will switch? (excluding NM, IO, & NH)  (Read 5234 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,727
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: March 03, 2007, 01:13:53 AM »
« edited: March 03, 2007, 01:16:57 AM by Quincy »
If the Dems win NV and OH Democratic.
If the GOP win PA and NJ go Republican.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,727
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2007, 01:54:39 PM »
I think OH, PA, and FL remains the top priorities for either party and the remaining states are secondary, whoever wins two out of 3 of those states will become the next president and it will be regardless a close election.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,727
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2007, 10:05:57 AM »
I don't know about Oklahoma trending Democratic in the presidential election, but it is trending democratic locally and it will be a matter of time that it will elect a Democratic senator, Brad Carson came close.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,727
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2007, 04:30:10 PM »
I don't see TN, OK, or KY switching. If you want to get technical, KY has a good record as well, with picking the winning presidential candidate except in 1960.  Both TN and KY have picked the winning candidate about the same number of times but Bush carried both of them by double digits, I think NM, NV, FL,  and OH which went about 6 pts or less to the winning candidate will determine the winner of this presidential election.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,727
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2007, 05:21:11 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2007, 05:24:58 PM by Quincy »
I think that if the winning candidate wins by a substantial amount, I can see some of these more conservative states like VA, AR, and even OK switching to the Dems, but if it is another close election, I think that those states  will stay republican. I say at around 1-3 states flipping to the Dems.
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