How many states will switch? (excluding NM, IO, & NH)
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  How many states will switch? (excluding NM, IO, & NH)
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Poll
Question: Excluding New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire, how many states do you think will switch party vote in the 2008 presidential election from the 2004 results?
#1
None
 
#2
1-2
 
#3
3-4
 
#4
5-6
 
#5
7+
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: How many states will switch? (excluding NM, IO, & NH)  (Read 5217 times)
Reignman
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« on: February 27, 2007, 03:03:30 PM »

Excluding New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire, how many states do you think will switch party vote in the 2008 presidential election from the 2004 results?
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2007, 03:24:53 PM »

5 to  6.
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Reignman
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2007, 03:44:39 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2007, 03:49:28 PM by Reignman »

Missouri has picked the winner since 1960.
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Verily
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2007, 03:45:05 PM »

Missouri Could Switch, but only with a good DEM nominee. And Dems need to figure out a way to win my home state, as no Democratic has EVER won the White House without Missouri in recent times.

Argumentum ad antiquitatem doesn't cut it. Missouri is no more important than any other state.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2007, 04:38:23 PM »

Missouri Could Switch, but only with a good DEM nominee. And Dems need to figure out a way to win my home state, as no Democratic has EVER won the White House without Missouri in recent times.

Argumentum ad antiquitatem doesn't cut it. Missouri is no more important than any other state.

I didn't say it is more important, I am just saying that every Democrat who has won the White House has won missouri..





And Dems need to figure out a way to win my home state.

Huh?

Anyway, 5-6. It's gonna be a way different electoral map with McCain or Guliani as the GOP nominee. Regardless of who wins I think we'll see a lot of switches.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2007, 09:31:51 PM »

James is right.  While voting for the winner every time since JFK in 1960 doesn't make it more important than any other state, it does make it a very important bellwhether state.  Remember, politicians tend to be very superstitious.  The phrase "As goes Missouri, so goes the rest of the country" may or may not be true, but in this case, with that kind of winning record, candidates of BOTH parties need to spend money in Missouri and pay close attention to it.  Its not the "state south of Iowa", it is a very big bellwhether for the country.

That said, its streak has to come to an end sometime, but in the mean time, it needs attention if the candidate knows whats good for them.
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SPC
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2007, 10:50:50 PM »

Missouri has picked the winner since 1960.

And either Missouri or Ohio has gone for the winning candidate since 1848.
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Reignman
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2007, 03:48:25 AM »

Ah, good point.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2007, 04:31:36 AM »

3-4

Ohio could switch to Dems
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin go to GOP
Michigan too close to tell
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: March 03, 2007, 01:13:53 AM »
« Edited: March 03, 2007, 01:16:57 AM by Quincy »

If the Dems win NV and OH Democratic.
If the GOP win PA and NJ go Republican.
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CPT MikeyMike
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« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2007, 05:06:47 PM »

The Dems could also pick up CO and NM.

GOP slight chance could pick up Michigan.

Of course it all depends on who runs. Guiliani could pick up states like MN or NJ perhaps.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2007, 05:13:40 PM »

Michigan might go Republican??

If the GOP ends up winning Michigan, the dems have more trouble on their hands than just that state.
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opebo
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2007, 06:49:21 PM »

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Reignman
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2007, 06:23:01 AM »


I think this is pretty accurate if you add Florida to the tossup list.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2007, 11:52:51 AM »

I can see Ohio going Democrat.

Not sure if it's on anyone's radar, but I can definitely see the states of Virginia and North Carolina possibly voting for a Democrat. Not a person in the Kerry mode, but maybe someone in the Gore mode. The reason simply is that there have been such a change in demographics due to migrating northeasterners, who are assumingly primarily Democrat to areas like Charlotte, the Triad area (Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point) and the Triangle area (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, Cary). The population explosion has been huge.
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Verily
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2007, 01:37:28 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2007, 01:40:04 PM by Verily »

All of the states that could switch to the other party without landslide conditions. Some of these states (Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Ohio) are more likely to switch than others (Oregon, Arkansas, New Hampshire, West Virginia).

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2007, 01:54:39 PM »

I think OH, PA, and FL remains the top priorities for either party and the remaining states are secondary, whoever wins two out of 3 of those states will become the next president and it will be regardless a close election.
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Reignman
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2007, 02:13:06 PM »

Colorado has more evidence of a Democratic trend then New Mexico does.......

I don't know about that. I'm pretty sure New Mexico has a higher hispanic % and I think the whole immigration debate is going to have a lasting effect on hispanics voting in presidential races for a long time.
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Boris
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2007, 02:48:51 PM »

Assuming a close to 50-50 popular vote:



I put West-Virginia at tossup because the way it goes depends upon who the candidates are. Light blue/pink is lean. In a 50-50 race without a spoiler third party candidate, each party probably has a 95% of so chance of retaining the "lean" states. Were the national popular vote margin to increase, then the "lean" states would come into play for the other side.

Unless the Dems can put together a strong organization in Florida, it probably goes GOP in a 50-50 race. Likewise, due to underlying factors, the Dems probably have a slight advantage in Ohio. GOP also might have a slight advantage in Colorado if the state isn't trending Dem fast enough. The other states are pretty much tossups.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2007, 11:04:27 PM »

I know everybody thinks I'm senile for thinking this, but I believe Oklahoma will be a more competitive state in 2008.  If Gov. Bill Richardson is the Democratic Nominee we could very easily come back to being a swing state.  I know one thing we will go Democrat within the next 12 years.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2007, 11:46:16 PM »

Colorado has more evidence of a Democratic trend then New Mexico does.......

I'm just not sure at this point that Colorado is as Democratic as everyone makes it out to be.  Well I guess we'll see in a year and a half or so.

I know everybody thinks I'm senile for thinking this, but I believe Oklahoma will be a more competitive state in 2008.  If Gov. Bill Richardson is the Democratic Nominee we could very easily come back to being a swing state.  I know one thing we will go Democrat within the next 12 years.

I wouldn't bet on it.  It is also very disappointing when you build your state up to be something it isn't, I know from experience.  Oklahoma is FAR right, and 2008 probably won't see any change.

I know more about Oklahoma than you do and we are not far right and we are trending Democrat while our big cities are becoming less conservative.  We will see a change in 2008, more toward the Democratic side.  No Republican will EVER win all 77 counties again.  That was just a horrible Democratic candidate.  Oklahoma can never be truthfully considered a far right state considering we have more Democrats than Republicans in registered voters.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2007, 10:05:57 AM »

I don't know about Oklahoma trending Democratic in the presidential election, but it is trending democratic locally and it will be a matter of time that it will elect a Democratic senator, Brad Carson came close.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2007, 10:48:31 AM »

Missouri has picked the winner since 1960.

And either Missouri or Ohio has gone for the winning candidate since 1848.

Don't forget Tennessee!! Ok so it has the third best record. It's picked the right candidate in almost all elections this century (minus 1960 and 1924)
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MaC
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« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2007, 01:58:59 PM »

only 3, but they'll be the ones you'd least suspect and the ones that are critical to winning.
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TomC
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« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2007, 02:04:19 PM »

Missouri Could Switch, but only with a good DEM nominee. And Dems need to figure out a way to win my home state, as no Democratic has EVER won the White House without Missouri in recent times.

Argumentum ad antiquitatem doesn't cut it. Missouri is no more important than any other state.

I didn't say it is more important, I am just saying that every Democrat who has won the White House has won missouri..



We used to say whichever candidate was taller would win, but I think that's been untrue the last 2 elections.
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