Assuming a close to 50-50 popular vote:
I put West-Virginia at tossup because the way it goes depends upon who the candidates are. Light blue/pink is lean. In a 50-50 race without a spoiler third party candidate, each party probably has a 95% of so chance of retaining the "lean" states. Were the national popular vote margin to increase, then the "lean" states would come into play for the other side.
Unless the Dems can put together a strong organization in Florida, it probably goes GOP in a 50-50 race. Likewise, due to underlying factors, the Dems probably have a slight advantage in Ohio. GOP also might have a slight advantage in Colorado if the state isn't trending Dem fast enough. The other states are pretty much tossups.
Poll
