If Ossoff loses but Maine flips Dem for Senate in 2026,

[Gopchick]

Why do you think this outcome happened? (Also all other senate seats stay the same party)

[Tekken_Guy]

If it's an R midterm: Kemp definitely ran, he's pretty much the only person who can beat Ossoff outside of a red wave.

If it's a D midterm: Collins retires, she'd only lose re-election in a blue wave.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If it's an R midterm: Kemp definitely ran, he's pretty much the only person who can beat Ossoff outside of a red wave.

If it's a D midterm: Collins retires, she'd only lose re-election in a blue wave.

Raffensperger could also run, he might even be a better fit for the suburbs than Kemp.

[Pink Panther]

People are overestimating Kemp, but either he or Raffensberger would be the GOP's best shot at Ossoff, so they win after Ossoff gets embroiled in scandal.

As for Maine, Collins retires and LePage is the nominee(for some reason), where Golden easily wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Warnock won in a D Midterm why would Ossoff lose this forum thinks GA is Lean R and Trafalgar polled Walker winning the S race last Time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are overestimating Kemp, but either he or Raffensberger would be the GOP's best shot at Ossoff, so they win after Ossoff gets embroiled in scandal.

As for Maine, Collins retires and LePage is the nominee(for some reason), where Golden easily wins.

Kemp is too old and he only beat Abrams and he is the same age as Perdue and Ossoff is 35 Kemp hadnt even said he was running yeah Trafalgar sure had GA right in the spot when it wrongly predicted Walker 49/45

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Why do you think this outcome happened? (Also all other senate seats stay the same party)

Biden won reelection. Collins retired.

Candidate quality cost the GOP MI

There really aren't a lot of pickup opportunity for either party in 2026

For the GOP its GA, MI, NH (stretch)   
For the Dems its ME, NC, TX (stretch) 

[Ferguson97]

Kemp ran and Collins retired.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp ran and Collins retired.

For the last time Collins isn't retiring, she said if D's get a Filibuster proof Trifecta after any Eday she won't vote for the rule but will vote for Voting Rights AZ, MT, and OH, MO and WV as wave insurance gives us 52)48 we don't need TX and FL

If Perdue couldn't beat Ossoff Kemp won't beat him either because Ossoff is 35 and white women like him it's not  a white man Eday

[Vosem]

Seats flipping in both directions implies a fairly mild midterm to me. I don't think Collins would retire or lose in a Democratic midterm, so that suggests to me that this is a fairly mild Republican midterm, like a reverse 2022 or even slightly worse for Democrats.

There really aren't a lot of pickup opportunity for either party in 2026

For the GOP its GA, MI, NH (stretch)   
For the Dems its ME, NC, TX (stretch) 

Underrated point that Class II has fewer swing states than Class I or III does, and so really large swings in Senate seats are less likely in 2026 than in 2024 or 2028. If the Senate is competitive at all in 2026 (implies either an absolutely disastrous Republican midterm, like worse than 2018, or a large Democratic victory in 2024), we can expect the key states to end up hosting ridiculously expensive races.

[Xing]

It's a Democratic midterm and a Republican-leaning environment overall, but Republicans bombed with Senate recruitment outside of Georgia, and Collins retired.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Democratic midterm and a Republican-leaning environment overall, but Republicans bombed with Senate recruitment outside of Georgia, and Collins retired.

Collins isn't retiring if she voted for Voting Rights as I keep saying she said along with Murkowski if D's get the Filibuster proof Trifecta she won't vote for the rule change but will vote for Voting Rights AZ,MT OH or WV and 5 seats in H gets us there

When we get rid of Sinema whom is Tulsi Gabby 2.0 and get Gallego no Filibuster reform blockage.

[Mr. Smith]

It's a Republican midterm and Dems are hyped.

Both get primaried, or Collins retires.

[Zedonathin2020]

It's a Republican midterm and Dems are hyped.

Both get primaried, or Collins retires.

I have a hard time believing that Ossoff would lose in a GOP midterm

[Sir Mohamed]

Kemp ran in a Biden midterm and narrowly ousted Ossoff. In ME, Collins retired and the GOP nominated a right-wing weirdo against Jared Golden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp ran in a Biden midterm and narrowly ousted Ossoff. In ME, Collins retired and the GOP nominated a right-wing weirdo against Jared Golden.

Collins isn't retiring and she said along with Murkowski that if Ds have the votes to end the Filibuster she will vote for Voting Rights Gallego is leading Lake and Tester is winning wave insurance seats are OH, MO, WV, FL and TX and Ossoff is lbt losing just because Kemp beat Abrams whom is a socialist there hasn't been 1 blk female Gov that does not count

RS make these threads of course they don't believe Ds are gonna win the Filibuster proof Trifecta because Tester and Brown are gone that's 48;Ds in their book and it's 2 yrs till Eday never underestimate Brown that's why I have OH Lean D I thought Brown was gonna lose to ReWinr and he was behind in Rassy polls too in 2006 that's why DeWine thought he was still gonna win
.
Every swing state voted to the left of FL including TX due to Hurricane IAN that's why it's a 303 map with TX, MO, OH, NC and SC, SCreplacement of IA as a swing state 26 black  as wave 🌊

[Spectator]

Why do you think this outcome happened? (Also all other senate seats stay the same party)

Biden won reelection. Collins retired.

Candidate quality cost the GOP MI

There really aren't a lot of pickup opportunity for either party in 2026

For the GOP its GA, MI, NH (stretch)   
For the Dems its ME, NC, TX (stretch) 

There’s not completely implausible scenarios where Alaska (Peltola), Kansas (with Laura Kelly), or Iowa (Rob Sand) could be on the board under certain conditions, namely a Trump second term. Or Delaware or Virginia for the GOP. But all those scenarios are very limited and not realistic.

[Mr. Smith]

It's a Republican midterm and Dems are hyped.

Both get primaried, or Collins retires.

I have a hard time believing that Ossoff would lose in a GOP midterm

What of primaried do you not get? And if Trump's back and Ossoff is too centrist or conciliatory on race issues [because with Trump that's probably back in the spotlight], this is plausible.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

All I'll say is this, GOP needs to beg Collins to run again. Generic R is not palatable to ME voters at this point

[President Johnson]

All I'll say is this, GOP needs to beg Collins to run again. Generic R is not palatable to ME voters at this point

I think the Democrats can beat Collins in 2026.