SusquehannaPR: Biden +13 vs. Trump; Newsom +2 vs. DeSantis

[pbrower2a]

An even swing to an election in which the Democratic nominee for President gets a 13% edge in the popular vote looks much like this as an even swing. Of course few elections really are even swings (nobody will ever get 102% of the vote in Dee Cee). Allow 2% for third-party nominees and people writing in such entities as Jesus Christ, Santa Claus, and Darth Vader. and the election goes to 55.26 to 42.26 or so.

 

The closest analogue to that would be a partisan inversion of George H W Bush vs. Dukakis 1988..

To suggest the opposite in which President Biden were getting clobbered by 13%, the map would look much like this:



This would be much like a partisan inversion of Obama vs. Romney in 2012. 

[pbrower2a]

Ohio has typically drifted R until the Ohio Republican party is tripped up in scandal. The rail scandals involve a railroad buying R politicians. I don't see Ohio as more anti-environmentalist than any other state. 

[pbrower2a]

It's clear that until Biden visits OH, it's Lean R, it's always been a 303 map whether or not Brown or Manchin survives remains to be seen

Manchin can still survive and Brown loses I always suspected as much because DeWine but it's split voting anyways like MT and NC

Manchin isn't DOA and if he survives he will ultimately vote for Voting Rights because he would be the 50 the vote not the 49 th vote to certify Voting Rights

President Biden is, so far as I can tell. not a corporate sell-out on the environment or workplace safety. When anti-environment practices start hurting people, environmentalism becomes a personal issue not strictly an elite, arcane concern. It becomes something more than keeping smog away from ski resorts. I expect him to kick some derrieres of people who have put profit maximization above human health and safety.

Environmental concerns include health and safety; those are legitimate concerns of the common man who might never ski or even visit a beach.