SusquehannaPR: Biden +13 vs. Trump; Newsom +2 vs. DeSantis
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  SusquehannaPR: Biden +13 vs. Trump; Newsom +2 vs. DeSantis
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Author Topic: SusquehannaPR: Biden +13 vs. Trump; Newsom +2 vs. DeSantis  (Read 781 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« on: March 03, 2023, 09:43:29 AM »



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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2023, 09:57:11 AM »
« Edited: March 03, 2023, 10:05:37 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Shapiro obviously, DeSantis isn't electable if he can't win PA
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2023, 10:07:47 AM »

Between this and the Roanoke poll, it's like some pollsters are just giving up post-midterms lol
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2023, 12:23:39 AM »

An even swing to an election in which the Democratic nominee for President gets a 13% edge in the popular vote looks much like this as an even swing. Of course few elections really are even swings (nobody will ever get 102% of the vote in Dee Cee). Allow 2% for third-party nominees and people writing in such entities as Jesus Christ, Santa Claus, and Darth Vader. and the election goes to 55.26 to 42.26 or so.

 

The closest analogue to that would be a partisan inversion of George H W Bush vs. Dukakis 1988..

To suggest the opposite in which President Biden were getting clobbered by 13%, the map would look much like this:



This would be much like a partisan inversion of Obama vs. Romney in 2012. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2023, 10:20:44 AM »

It's clear that until Biden visits OH, it's Lean R, it's always been a 303 map whether or not Brown or Manchin survives remains to be seen

Manchin can still survive and Brown loses I always suspected as much because DeWine but it's split voting anyways like MT and NC

Manchin isn't DOA and if he survives he will ultimately vote for Voting Rights because he would be the 50 the vote not the 49 th vote to certify Voting Rights
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2023, 11:14:01 AM »

Ohio has typically drifted R until the Ohio Republican party is tripped up in scandal. The rail scandals involve a railroad buying R politicians. I don't see Ohio as more anti-environmentalist than any other state. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2023, 03:46:40 PM »

It's clear that until Biden visits OH, it's Lean R, it's always been a 303 map whether or not Brown or Manchin survives remains to be seen

Manchin can still survive and Brown loses I always suspected as much because DeWine but it's split voting anyways like MT and NC

Manchin isn't DOA and if he survives he will ultimately vote for Voting Rights because he would be the 50 the vote not the 49 th vote to certify Voting Rights

President Biden is, so far as I can tell. not a corporate sell-out on the environment or workplace safety. When anti-environment practices start hurting people, environmentalism becomes a personal issue not strictly an elite, arcane concern. It becomes something more than keeping smog away from ski resorts. I expect him to kick some derrieres of people who have put profit maximization above human health and safety.

Environmental concerns include health and safety; those are legitimate concerns of the common man who might never ski or even visit a beach.   
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2023, 03:48:57 PM »

Biden might get 52% of the vote, which is probably the ceiling. No way he or anyone else is going to win by double digits. A 52-46% is the absolute maximum. For Trump or any Republican, the popular vote is difficult to win, though their ceiling is around plus one point or so (which would translate into a solid victory in the Electoral College).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2023, 04:07:39 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2023, 04:11:12 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Biden might get 52% of the vote, which is probably the ceiling. No way he or anyone else is going to win by double digits. A 52-46% is the absolute maximum. For Trump or any Republican, the popular vote is difficult to win, though their ceiling is around plus one point or so (which would translate into a solid victory in the Electoral College).


LoL Obama won a landslide in 20o8/12  with out winning by Double digital

Justice may force Manchin to retire we must target more than OH and MT and AZ so we don't falk short in S which is TX and Mo because Presley and Beshear are Kunce like

Users get caught up in 303 it's a 538 mao Biden ran with Obama in 2008/12 there can be upsets and we lost OH and NC in 22 but won KS
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