Prince Edward Island provincial election - April 3, 2023

[Harlow]

This is one of the sleepiest Canadian provincial elections I've ever seen. Election day is a week from now and I've heard/seen extremely little about it. I know it's just PEI, but there was definitely more buzz around the election last time--granted, the outcome seems all but guaranteed this time. But there has only been one poll released since the election was called.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Based on current polling Dennis King's PCs can be expected to win with an overwhelming majority and 60% of the popular vote.

Shows how well the Tories can do when they position themselves as amiable middle of the road centrists with no discernable ideology and totally indistinguishable from the Liberals.

Yeah that's the right approach for a province like PEI, but would flop hard federally, Liberal or Tory. The mayor of Sudbury has jurisdiction over a larger population than the Premier of PEI. It's a very close-knit and isolated island with a very homogenous population. Being an ideological firebreather on either end of the spectrum has no relevance to their politics, when really the job of a PEI premier is to just keep the basic services running and have a good relationship with Ottawa. Their politics is charmingly small-time and wholesome, the leaders literally hugged it out after the debate last election (I believe Bevan-Baker is/was Dennis King's dentist).

Imagine Poilievre and Trudeau hugging each other after a debate while presumably scheduling a root canal treatment at the other guy's clinic.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is one of the sleepiest Canadian provincial elections I've ever seen. Election day is a week from now and I've heard/seen extremely little about it. I know it's just PEI, but there was definitely more buzz around the election last time--granted, the outcome seems all but guaranteed this time. But there has only been one poll released since the election was called.

The last election was the most competitive in generations, a genuine three-party race, and during the writ period there were a grand total of...four polls! Not surprising that nobody's bothering to poll this one when a PC landslide seems inevitable.

[Benjamin Frank]

Prediction
P.C 21
Green 4
Liberal 2

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Today’s the day! Once again, I’ve never been to PEI, so take everything I say with a grain of salt!

I think that we should keep an eye on Stanhope-Marshfield though. It’s a PC-NDP head-to-head matchup held by the PC incumbent, who got about 39.5% last election. The NDP was only at 1.4%, so it would be a big swing.

Otherwise, this seems like a good write-up.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP doesn't stand a chance in Stanhope. If they're going to win a seat, it will be O'Leary-Inverness where Herb Dickieson is running again. He has a large personal following in his part of the riding.

[mileslunn]

My guess is any Liberal or Green seats will be more due to popularity of local candidate as PCs have pretty big lead and due to how small island is, regional variations smaller than most provinces.  Heck Tories nationally usually only get 2-3% less than they do overall yet federally usually shut out.  At same time provincial ridings only 4,000 people per riding so a popular candidate can buck overall trend.

[Logical]

Glorified island council. Should never have been made a province.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls closed. turnout is high compared to other provincial elections cause its a insular community where everyone knows what is going on.

[Benjamin Frank]

CBC live coverage here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM2nZSZwlGg

2 Advanced polls already in. PCs lead (win) both handily. At least one Green incumbent is going down to defeat.

[DistingFlyer]

A dozen ridings now reporting advance polls; Tories doing well so far, leading in ten of them (and tied with the Greens in another) with 58%, while the Greens & Grits trail with one riding & 19% of the vote apiece.

That the Tories are winning again, and winning well, isn't exactly a shock; the real interest is who will form the Opposition, and there's no clear sign yet on that.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP doesn't stand a chance in Stanhope. If they're going to win a seat, it will be O'Leary-Inverness where Herb Dickieson is running again. He has a large personal following in his part of the riding.

He finished second to the Liberals there, and considering the Liberal vote share is expected to slide even further, that might also help him.

Screw it, I may be a conservative but I'm rooting for the NDP tonight, for no reason other than to get a slightly more colourful map.

[DistingFlyer]

CBC has just declared a majority for the Tories; current standings are as follows:

PC - 19 MLAs, 57%
Lib - 3 MLAs, 19%
GP - 1 MLA*, 19%
NDP - 4%

*Still a Tory-Green tie in Bevan-Baker's seat.

[Oryxslayer]

The 27-0 dream (if it was ever alive) is dead with the Libs getting a seat called for them.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Bad night for the Greens so far. What are the chances PEI goes back to traditional red/blue politics if Bevan-Baker can't hold onto his own seat?

[DistingFlyer]

Greens look to take second place in terms of votes but the Liberals will probably win Official Opposition. If Bevan-Baker claws his way back then the two parties will be tied and he'll probably keep his job.

[MaxQue]

The 5 tightest seats right now are the 3 Green ones (Bevan-Baker is back in the lead by 19 votes), then 2 of the 3 Liberal ones.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like its going to be 22-3-2 in the end. BB now looks secure. So while the PCs swept, both opposition parties still have somewhere to build off for the future.

[VPH]

Looks like Bevan-Baker won his seat but this probably signals a need for change in the Green Party.

[DistingFlyer]

Still only unofficial returns, of course, but here's how the rough regions break down:

Cardigan
PC - 60.2% (+14%), 7 MLAs (+1)
GP - 22.5% (-5%) (-1 MLA)
Lib - 13.7% (-11%)
NDP - 2.4% (+1%)

Charlottetown
PC - 49.5% (+23%), 4 MLAs (+3)
GP - 23.9% (-12%), 1 MLA (-2)
Lib - 20.9% (-12%), 1 MLA (-1)
NDP - 4.6% (+1%)

Malpeque
PC - 62.3% (+20%), 6 MLAs (+1)
GP - 22.3% (-10%), 1 MLA
Lib - 10.1% (-14%) (-1 MLA)
NDP - 4.8% (+4%)

Egmont
PC - 49.7% (+21%), 5 MLAs (+4)
Lib - 26.0% (-11%), 2 MLAs (-1)
GP - 17.6% (-10%) (-3 MLAs)
NDP - 6.3% (+0%)

OVERALL
PC - 55.9% (+19%), 22 MLAs (+9)
GP - 21.6% (-9%), 2 MLAs (-6)
Lib - 17.2% (-12%), 3 MLAs (-3)
NDP - 4.5% (+2%)

[Benjamin Frank]

Possibly record low turnout at 68.5%, a full 10% decline (from 78%) from 2019.

[DistingFlyer]

Breaking ridings down by how they voted last time (&/or whether or not the incumbent ran again), here's how things look:

PC (incumbent re-offering) (11)
PC - 67.0% (+17%), 11 MLAs
GP - 15.2% (-10%)
Lib - 12.0% (-11%)
NDP - 4.8% (+3%)

PC (open) (2)
PC - 53.8% (+10%), 2 MLAs
GP - 28.1% (+1%)
Lib - 16.7% (-12%)
NDP - 1.1% (+1%)

PC (total) (13)
PC - 64.9% (+16%), 13 MLAs
GP - 17.2% (-8%)
Lib - 12.8% (-11%)
NDP - 4.3% (+3%)


GP (incumbent re-offering) (6)
PC - 47.4% (+19%), 4 MLAs (+4)
GP - 38.2% (-4%), 2 MLAs (-4)
Lib - 11.2% (-15%)
NDP - 2.4% (-1%)

GP (open) (2)
PC - 47.1% (+23%), 2 MLAs (+2)
GP - 27.3% (-13%) (-2 MLAs)
Lib - 19.0% (-13%)
NDP - 6.1% (+3%)

GP (total) (
PC - 47.3% (+20%), 6 MLAs (+6)
GP - 35.5% (-6%), 2 MLAs (-6)
Lib - 13.1% (-15%)
NDP - 3.3% (+0%)


Lib (incumbent re-offering) (3)
Lib - 47.2% (+6%), 3 MLAs
PC - 35.4% (+12%)
GP - 4.9% (-16%)
NDP - 11.7% (+0%)

Lib (open) (1)
PC - 61.7% (+38%), 1 MLA (+1)
Lib - 24.2% (-20%) (-1 MLA)
GP - 12.1% (-19%)
NDP - 2.0% (+1%)

Lib (lost in by-elections) (2)
PC - 57.6% (+36%), 2 MLAs (+2)
Lib - 18.4% (-27%) (-2 MLAs)
GP - 21.2% (-12%)
NDP - 2.2% (+1%)

Lib (total) (6)
PC - 47.6% (+25%), 3 MLAs (+3)
Lib - 32.9% (-10%), 3 MLAs (-3)
GP - 12.2% (-14%)
NDP - 6.7% (+0%)

[DistingFlyer]

In addition to a record provincewide vote lead (34.4%, beating the 24.9% Liberal lead in 1989), Matthew MacKay set a record for personal victories, beating his Green opponent by 61.2% (beating Liberal Sonny Gallant's 58.5% lead in Evangeline - Miscouche in 2011).

[Benjamin Frank]

This isn't anywhere near as significant as it sounds, but since (up to now) it was a Green Party talking point, this is the first election in Canadian history where a Green Party MLA was defeated.

[adma]

This isn't anywhere near as significant as it sounds, but since (up to now) it was a Green Party talking point, this is the first election in Canadian history where a Green Party MLA was defeated.

*Federally*, though, Paul Manly was defeated in 2011 (and I'm not including party-jumpers like Bruce Hyer)