Prince Edward Island provincial election - April 3, 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

It seems Premier Dennis King is considering calling the election this month.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-nomination-season-begins-1.6742868

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the odds it's going to be 26 PCs and 1 Green?

[Njall]

The election was called last night - the election date will be April 3rd. According to the CBC, as of last night, only the PCs have nominated a full slate of candidates so far. The Liberals have nominated candidates in about 2/3rds of the districts and the Greens and NDP each have candidates nominated in about half of the districts. The Island Party is also registered and eligible to run candidates. The deadline for candidate nominations is March 17th.

Also, as a point of interest, the PEI NDP are once again targeting the seat of O'Leary-Inverness by running former MLA Herb Dickieson, who held the seat between 1996-2000 and is the only New Democrat who has ever been elected to the PEI Legislature. Although he has been out of the Legislature for over two decades, he clearly still has a personal following in the area - he ran in the same district in the 2019 election and finished second with around 33%, slightly more than 200 votes behind the victorious Liberal MLA.

[Tintrlvr]

The Liberals running their leader against the Green leader does seem to make it clear that they don't think they have any chance at all.

Last time the PCs didn't lead a single poll before or during the campaign until one right before election day and won a majority, so polling shouldn't be taken too seriously.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Once again stating for the record that I am not from PEI, so don’t think I’m an expert here.

That aside, I’d guess that the PCs will curbstomp their opponents. NDP will continue to be an embarrassment and the Greens will likely come out ahead of the Liberals (that’s not saying much though).

[DL]

A PEI poll was just released by Narrative:

PCs - 49% (up 12% from 2019 election)
Greens - 22% (down 9%)
Liberals - 19% (down 10%)
NDP - 9% (up 6%)

https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-king-government-remains-strong-in-pei/

[Benjamin Frank]

The Liberals running their leader against the Green leader does seem to make it clear that they don't think they have any chance at all.

Last time the PCs didn't lead a single poll before or during the campaign until one right before election day and won a majority, so polling shouldn't be taken too seriously.

They actually won a minority on election day.

[DL]

Once again stating for the record that I am not from PEI, so don’t think I’m an expert here.

That aside, I’d guess that the PCs will curbstomp their opponents. NDP will continue to be an embarrassment and the Greens will likely come out ahead of the Liberals (that’s not saying much though).

I'm not expecting any miracles but the PEI NDP seems to have its act together more this time than in the last few elections. They already have candidates in 17/27 ridings and they seem to have brought in organizers from Nova Scotia etc... so maybe there could be a three way tie for official opposition if the Liberals, Greens and NDP each win one seat!

[Tintrlvr]

The Liberals running their leader against the Green leader does seem to make it clear that they don't think they have any chance at all.

Last time the PCs didn't lead a single poll before or during the campaign until one right before election day and won a majority, so polling shouldn't be taken too seriously.

They actually won a minority on election day.

Fair correction, thanks.

[adma]

A PEI poll was just released by Narrative:

PCs - 49% (up 12% from 2019 election)
Greens - 22% (down 9%)
Liberals - 19% (down 10%)
NDP - 9% (up 6%)

https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-king-government-remains-strong-in-pei/

Given the general history of PEI elections, that's getting into sweeping-the-legislature territory--or, as mentioned, 1-1-1 opposition territory.  (Ah, the government-in-waiting buzz about the Greens last time has *really* faded)

[Benjamin Frank]

A PEI poll was just released by Narrative:

PCs - 49% (up 12% from 2019 election)
Greens - 22% (down 9%)
Liberals - 19% (down 10%)
NDP - 9% (up 6%)

https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-king-government-remains-strong-in-pei/

Given the general history of PEI elections, that's getting into sweeping-the-legislature territory--or, as mentioned, 1-1-1 opposition territory.  (Ah, the government-in-waiting buzz about the Greens last time has *really* faded)

In the 1935 election, the Liberals won all 30 seats.

[MaxQue]

A PEI poll was just released by Narrative:

PCs - 49% (up 12% from 2019 election)
Greens - 22% (down 9%)
Liberals - 19% (down 10%)
NDP - 9% (up 6%)

https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-king-government-remains-strong-in-pei/

Given the general history of PEI elections, that's getting into sweeping-the-legislature territory--or, as mentioned, 1-1-1 opposition territory.  (Ah, the government-in-waiting buzz about the Greens last time has *really* faded)

In the 1935 election, the Liberals won all 30 seats.

While only winning 58-42 and despite having a bedridden leader who died months not long after.

[adma]

A PEI poll was just released by Narrative:

PCs - 49% (up 12% from 2019 election)
Greens - 22% (down 9%)
Liberals - 19% (down 10%)
NDP - 9% (up 6%)

https://narrativeresearch.ca/satisfaction-with-king-government-remains-strong-in-pei/

Given the general history of PEI elections, that's getting into sweeping-the-legislature territory--or, as mentioned, 1-1-1 opposition territory.  (Ah, the government-in-waiting buzz about the Greens last time has *really* faded)

In the 1935 election, the Liberals won all 30 seats.

While only winning 58-42 and despite having a bedridden leader who died months not long after.

And more recently, the opposition party (first Lib, then PC x 2) in '03/07/11 getting 4/5 seats to the victor's 22/23 seats despite managing over 40% of the vote (and as high as 42.9% in '03)

[Hatman 🍁]

Once again stating for the record that I am not from PEI, so don’t think I’m an expert here.

That aside, I’d guess that the PCs will curbstomp their opponents. NDP will continue to be an embarrassment and the Greens will likely come out ahead of the Liberals (that’s not saying much though).

I'm not expecting any miracles but the PEI NDP seems to have its act together more this time than in the last few elections. They already have candidates in 17/27 ridings and they seem to have brought in organizers from Nova Scotia etc... so maybe there could be a three way tie for official opposition if the Liberals, Greens and NDP each win one seat!

Which seat exactly would be the lone Liberal seat? Their leader is running against Bevan-Baker, so it's not going to be her.

The Liberals lost their safest seat in the province in a by-election in 2021, so it's not going to be it, either.

[lilTommy]

Once again stating for the record that I am not from PEI, so don’t think I’m an expert here.

That aside, I’d guess that the PCs will curbstomp their opponents. NDP will continue to be an embarrassment and the Greens will likely come out ahead of the Liberals (that’s not saying much though).

I'm not expecting any miracles but the PEI NDP seems to have its act together more this time than in the last few elections. They already have candidates in 17/27 ridings and they seem to have brought in organizers from Nova Scotia etc... so maybe there could be a three way tie for official opposition if the Liberals, Greens and NDP each win one seat!

Which seat exactly would be the lone Liberal seat? Their leader is running against Bevan-Baker, so it's not going to be her.

The Liberals lost their safest seat in the province in a by-election in 2021, so it's not going to be it, either.

Looks like Tignish-Palmer Road might be the next "safest" Liberal seat maybe?

For the NDP it MIGHT be O'Leary-Inverness on Herb's personal vote and a general up-swing for the NDP, that's the most likely. But it could be leader Michelle Neill's seat of Charlottetown-Brighton. The current Green MLA lost re-nomination so there is no incumbent running, odds are not in here favour but you never know.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tignish-Palmer Road will probably remain Liberal, as Hal Perry is running again and won easily last time. But, I wouldn't call it a safe Liberal seat. It was Gail Shea's provincial riding after all. And Perry won it as a Tory in 2011 before crossing the aisle. It's a fairly culturally conservative riding, as it's opposed electoral reform fairly strongly in all of PEI's referendums. Generally the further from Charlottetown a riding is, the less likely it is to support electoral reform.

Herb Dickieson will likely lose again, but he has a large personal vote in his home area that he always does well in.  But, he definitely has a better shot of winning than the leader. The PEI NDP isn't really considered seriously by voters anymore (if it ever had been). Progressives in Charlottetown will continue to vote Green.

[DL]

The PEI NDP isn't really considered seriously by voters anymore (if it ever had been). Progressives in Charlottetown will continue to vote Green.

Its worth noting that in the 2015 PEI election the Greens and the NDP each won about the same share of the provincial popular vote. But the Green leader won his seat narrowly and the NDP leader lost his seat narrowly. Its worth speculating whether if the reverse had happened, the NDP would have become the main "progressive alternative" in PEI while the Greens would have ended up in oblivion. Much the same thing happened in the 2014 NB election.

[adma]

Once again stating for the record that I am not from PEI, so don’t think I’m an expert here.

That aside, I’d guess that the PCs will curbstomp their opponents. NDP will continue to be an embarrassment and the Greens will likely come out ahead of the Liberals (that’s not saying much though).

I'm not expecting any miracles but the PEI NDP seems to have its act together more this time than in the last few elections. They already have candidates in 17/27 ridings and they seem to have brought in organizers from Nova Scotia etc... so maybe there could be a three way tie for official opposition if the Liberals, Greens and NDP each win one seat!

Which seat exactly would be the lone Liberal seat? Their leader is running against Bevan-Baker, so it's not going to be her.

The Liberals lost their safest seat in the province in a by-election in 2021, so it's not going to be it, either.

Looks like Tignish-Palmer Road might be the next "safest" Liberal seat maybe?

For the NDP it MIGHT be O'Leary-Inverness on Herb's personal vote and a general up-swing for the NDP, that's the most likely. But it could be leader Michelle Neill's seat of Charlottetown-Brighton. The current Green MLA lost re-nomination so there is no incumbent running, odds are not in here favour but you never know.

Amidst this quasi-whimsical speculation, just to interject to remind one and all that the classic "1-1-1 opposition" result of our time was in Scotland in the '15 UK election (i.e. everything SNP but for one Labour, one Tory, one Lib Dem)

[DistingFlyer]

Latest poll (from Mainstreet, their first since the last election) has the Tories at 59%, Grits at 23%, Greens at 14% & NDP at 4%.

The campaign will likely see the Tory lead narrow a bit, but - especially since their numbers have been so high for the entirety of this past term - I can't see them doing anything but winning heavily unless they screw up spectacularly in the next few weeks.

[Njall]

The candidate nomination deadline has now passed. Based on what I've seen, it looks like only the PCs and NDP will be running full slates of candidates. The Greens and Liberals are each running 25 candidates, the Island Party is running 11, and there are 4 independents.

The Liberals and Greens both failed to nominate candidates in Stanhope-Marshfield. There will be no Liberal candidate in Borden-Kinkora, and no Green candidate in Tignish-Palmer Road.

[DL]

I'm actually impressed that the previously moribund PEI NDP has managed to put together a full slate of candidates

[MaxQue]

Stanhope-Marshfield will actually be a PC-NDP duel. No other candidates.

[Krago]

Stanhope-Marshfield will actually be a PC-NDP duel. No other candidates.

I wonder if the person who named that riding is a South Park fan.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Based on current polling Dennis King's PCs can be expected to win with an overwhelming majority and 60% of the popular vote.

[DL]

Based on current polling Dennis King's PCs can be expected to win with an overwhelming majority and 60% of the popular vote.

Shows how well the Tories can do when they position themselves as amiable middle of the road centrists with no discernable ideology and totally indistinguishable from the Liberals.