New Jersey 2008

[Kevin]

It's starting to look like this state may be interesting in 08. Polls taken here have recently show Rudy Giuliani ahead of Hillary Clintion. NJ was also closer in 2004.

So does anybody think this could be a swing state in 2008?   

[DownWithTheLeft]

Really only if Rudy is the nominee

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So does anybody think this could be a swing state in 2008?   

Not a swing state, no.  With McCain as the nominee, New Jersey will be within ten points.  If Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, New Jersey will be a lot closer, but a generic Democrat will probably have the advantage when all is said and done.

I certainly would not rule out a Rudy win in either New Jersey or Connecticut, though, for obvious reasons.

[Kevin]

So does anybody think this could be a swing state in 2008?   

Not a swing state, no.  With McCain as the nominee, New Jersey will be within ten points.  If Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, New Jersey will be a lot closer, but a generic Democrat will probably have the advantage when all is said and done.

I certainly would not rule out a Rudy win in either New Jersey or Connecticut, though, for obvious reasons.

Rudy is an old time moderate Republican in may ways so I'd think he'd have some appael in NJ or CT. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

NEW JERSEY -
Clinton (D) 52%
Giuliani (R) 47%

CONNECTICUT -
Clinton (D) 53%
Giuliani (R) 45%

Its hard to see Giuliani winning either New Jersey or Connecticut, however.  Also for the measure:

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

New Jersey

Obama (D) - 51%
Guiliani (R) - 47%

Clinton (D) - 52%
Guiliani (R) - 46%

Guiliani (R) - 49%
Edwards (D) - 49%

[Adlai Stevenson]

New Jersey will probably be somewhat close in 2008. Id say the DEM by 7.

That was basically what it was in 2004.  Delaware could also be an interesting possibility. 

[bullmoose88]

New Jersey will probably be somewhat close in 2008. Id say the DEM by 7.

That was basically what it was in 2004.  Delaware could also be an interesting possibility. 

If Rudy could flip New Castle County, or close the gap there enough to flip delaware, then the Dems have all sorts of problems.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I suppose it's worth noting here that Quinnipiac just came out with a poll on the New Jersey race:

Giuliani leads Clinton, 50%-41%
Gliuliani leads Obama, 50%-39%
Clinton, McCain Dead Heat 45%-45%
Obama leads McCain, 45%-41%

The MOE here is +/- 2.7%.

[Keystone Phil]

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

Only two points better than Bush in 2004?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Giuliani could make it competitive, and might win against Hillary.

IMO, the reason it was so close in 2004 was that Bush got a 9/11 bounce (NJ was one of the hardest-hit states, and "security moms" backed him here even more than in other places) and because Kerry was a terrible candidate who ran an awful campaign.

[Smash255]

No

Bush received a decent sized 9/11 bounce in NJ, which is over and done with as far as the GOP is concerned.

Jersey is known for polling quite a bit more GOP than they actually vote.

Giuliani would make it closer than the others, but his views on Iraq (and its very unlikely it won't be a major issue in 08) will hurt him.

[WalterMitty]

ive given up hope on nj.  look at the awful people they elect!

bottom line:  if the iraq war is over in nov 04, giuliani has an outside shot in nj.  if the war is still raging, forget about it.

[Adlai Stevenson]

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

Only two points better than Bush in 2004?

Given the national climate likely in 2008 thats a very good showing for any Republican. 

[Mr.Phips]

No

Bush received a decent sized 9/11 bounce in NJ, which is over and done with as far as the GOP is concerned.

Jersey is known for polling quite a bit more GOP than they actually vote.

Giuliani would make it closer than the others, but his views on Iraq (and its very unlikely it won't be a major issue in 08) will hurt him.

This is true.  A lot of polls in 2004 showed the state nearly tied between Bush and Kerry and ended up going to Kerry by seven.  Some polls also showed Tom Kean tied or even ahead of Bob Menendez in 2006 and Menendez won by nine points.

[Smash255]

No

Bush received a decent sized 9/11 bounce in NJ, which is over and done with as far as the GOP is concerned.

Jersey is known for polling quite a bit more GOP than they actually vote.

Giuliani would make it closer than the others, but his views on Iraq (and its very unlikely it won't be a major issue in 08) will hurt him.

This is true.  A lot of polls in 2004 showed the state nearly tied between Bush and Kerry and ended up going to Kerry by seven.  Some polls also showed Tom Kean tied or even ahead of Bob Menendez in 2006 and Menendez won by nine points.

Also Forrester, Corzine in 05

[Reignman]

Really only if Rudy is the nominee

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No

Bush received a decent sized 9/11 bounce in NJ, which is over and done with as far as the GOP is concerned.

Jersey is known for polling quite a bit more GOP than they actually vote.

Giuliani would make it closer than the others, but his views on Iraq (and its very unlikely it won't be a major issue in 08) will hurt him.

This is true.  A lot of polls in 2004 showed the state nearly tied between Bush and Kerry and ended up going to Kerry by seven.  Some polls also showed Tom Kean tied or even ahead of Bob Menendez in 2006 and Menendez won by nine points.

Also Forrester, Corzine in 05

I'm pretty sure that there was not a single poll that showed Forrester ahead of Corzine, ever.  There were a few polls that showed it close now and again, but the Forrester campaign's numbers disintegrated once it ran those attack ads about Corzine's ex-wife.

Kean's numbers fell apart once Foley came out, and they never recovered.

If I recall, the final polls in both those races were pretty accurate.

[Verily]

No

Bush received a decent sized 9/11 bounce in NJ, which is over and done with as far as the GOP is concerned.

Jersey is known for polling quite a bit more GOP than they actually vote.

Giuliani would make it closer than the others, but his views on Iraq (and its very unlikely it won't be a major issue in 08) will hurt him.

This is true.  A lot of polls in 2004 showed the state nearly tied between Bush and Kerry and ended up going to Kerry by seven.  Some polls also showed Tom Kean tied or even ahead of Bob Menendez in 2006 and Menendez won by nine points.

Also Forrester, Corzine in 05

I'm pretty sure that there was not a single poll that showed Forrester ahead of Corzine, ever.  There were a few polls that showed it close now and again, but the Forrester campaign's numbers disintegrated once it ran those attack ads about Corzine's ex-wife.

Kean's numbers fell apart once Foley came out, and they never recovered.

If I recall, the final polls in both those races were pretty accurate.

He's right about 2004, though. The polls showed it to be a race of a couple of points at most, but Kerry won by sizeable margin.

What's important to remember about 2006 is that, while Kean was ahead for a while in the polls, he couldn't break his ceiling of around 45% no matter how large his margin was over Menendez in any poll. That sounds to me like a lot of "shy Democrats" who didn't like Menendez (and didn't want to support him in a poll) but liked Kean less.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2004 Presidential:

Quinnipiac (10/27 - 10/31): 48 - 43 Kerry
Rasmussen (10/17 - 10/30): 53 - 41 Kerry
Survey USA (10/27 - 10/29): 54 - 42 Kerry
Rutgers (10/27 - 10/29): 48 - 44 Kerry
FDU (10/21 - 10/28): 47 - 40 Kerry

Final margin: 52.9 - 46.2 Kerry (+6.7%)

I will grant that the race was much closer than expected in September -- which really could have been a genuine Bush lead, who knows -- but by the end of the race Kerry was ahead in the polls by pretty much the same margin he finally won by.

A summary of the 2004 NJ polls can be found here:
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=6097&ShowAllMUPoll=Y

[Smash255]

No

Bush received a decent sized 9/11 bounce in NJ, which is over and done with as far as the GOP is concerned.

Jersey is known for polling quite a bit more GOP than they actually vote.

Giuliani would make it closer than the others, but his views on Iraq (and its very unlikely it won't be a major issue in 08) will hurt him.

This is true.  A lot of polls in 2004 showed the state nearly tied between Bush and Kerry and ended up going to Kerry by seven.  Some polls also showed Tom Kean tied or even ahead of Bob Menendez in 2006 and Menendez won by nine points.

Also Forrester, Corzine in 05

I'm pretty sure that there was not a single poll that showed Forrester ahead of Corzine, ever.  There were a few polls that showed it close now and again, but the Forrester campaign's numbers disintegrated once it ran those attack ads about Corzine's ex-wife.

Kean's numbers fell apart once Foley came out, and they never recovered.

If I recall, the final polls in both those races were pretty accurate.

As far as Forrester was concerned I was referring to polls showing it a bit closer than it really ever was.  Race was quite close in the polls for awhile.  Polls at the end were a bit closer, but I don't think Forrester collapsed at the end as much as the majority of the polls till about 2 weeks out were too GOP friendly, same thing with the Menendez-Kean race

[Verily]

NEW JERSEY -
Clinton (D) 52%
Giuliani (R) 47%

CONNECTICUT -
Clinton (D) 53%
Giuliani (R) 45%

Its hard to see Giuliani winning either New Jersey or Connecticut, however.  Also for the measure:

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

Your making the democrat lead in each of the three states because you are a democrat. I don`t doubt that Giuliani might loose Connecticut because it is heavily democratic. But I think that New Jersey might swing republican. It is always one of the closer states along the east coast, that and New Hampshire.

I think that Giuliani might have a chance in New York and I will tell you why. My history teacher told me that most of New York is conservative but what gives it to the democrats by such a big margin is that New York City is liberal. But, I believe that Giuliani might have an advantage in New York because he was mayor of New York City and the rest of New York is conservative.

Let me remind you, as I have had to remind others before, that New York City holds few fond memories of Giuliani. Let me also remind you that part of the reason upstate New York votes for Republicans is because New York City votes for Democrats. (Upstate hates the city.) They wouldn't vote for a New York City Republican en masse, and Clinton has a very powerful upstate machine anyway. Let me thirdly remind you that the New Jersey NYC commuters also mostly dislike Giuliani for the commuter tax reform during his mayoralty. he stands no chance in New York, and almost certainly no chance in New Jersey. You are the one being hackish.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Gporter, you seem to know nothing.  You say b/c your history teacher told you it must be a fact?  Come on, give me a break.  Guiliani would not win NJ, stick to making an argument for New Jersey which is possible.

[Gabu]

Say what you want about Giuliani`s chances in New York and New Jersey, but I don`t agree with you.

You don't agree with facts?

This explains a lot.

[memphis]

Let me thirdly remind you that the New Jersey NYC commuters also mostly dislike Giuliani for the commuter tax reform during his mayoralty. he stands no chance in New York, and almost certainly no chance in New Jersey. You are the one being hackish.

That may be the case up where you are but in the heavy commuter areas in Somerset/Morris counties he couldn't be more popular.

And Bush won Somerset and Morris in 2004. A lot of good it did him in winning New Jersey.