Was Gerald Ford's 1976 performance in the general election actually impressive?

[President Johnson]

Given all circumstances and fundamentals in the 1976 election, is it fair to say that Gerald Ford's performance in the general election was actually extremely impressive?

Consider that was an an unelected president that was never even elected vice president on a national ticket. He came into office after one of the most significant scandals in American political history, pardoned Nixon (which was extremely controversial) had strong primary challenge that almost succeeded at an open convention, yet he managed to lose by only two points and still cleared 240 electoral votes while taking 27 states outright. Ford trailed by double digits in summer and made up a lot of ground over the fall just to fall short by a fraction. Heck, if the campaign went on for another week or two or he just didn't do the "no Soviet domination" gaffe, he might have won. Democrats also got lucky with Carter appealing to Southern voters. I guess Ford could have beaten most other Democratic candidates.

It's a disappointment Republicans didn't draft him in 1980 again. I guess he would have won a bigger popular vote victory than Reagan and still around 400 electoral votes since Anderson wouldn't have run with Ford leading the Republican ticket (and presumably a conservative running mate). Also, Reagan would never have happened, though I'm skeptical the conservative power taking in the Republican could have been prevented. I guess the inevitable would just have been delayed, though that's another topic to discuss.

Thoughts?

[Alben Barkley]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

[President Johnson]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

Agreed. Or if Johnson just leaked information that Nixon was sabotaging the peace talks. Something that was actually worse than Watergate.

[Alben Barkley]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

Agreed. Or if Johnson just leaked information that Nixon was sabotaging the peace talks. Something that was actually worse than Watergate.

That was partly Humphrey's fault. He advised Johnson not to release it, thinking he already had the election in the bag by that point. He would later admit it was his biggest regret.

[Ragnaroni]

He kept California which is surprising. He did well in Michigan too. It was close which is impressive considering the damage to the GOP that Nixon caused.

[Alben Barkley]

He kept California which is surprising. He did well in Michigan too. It was close which is impressive considering the damage to the GOP that Nixon caused.

Perhaps Ford being almost shot by two California women twice within a month while campaigning there helped him out lol

One of the more bizarre sequence of events in US history.

[Mr.Phips]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

Agreed. Or if Johnson just leaked information that Nixon was sabotaging the peace talks. Something that was actually worse than Watergate.

That was partly Humphrey's fault. He advised Johnson not to release it, thinking he already had the election in the bag by that point. He would later admit it was his biggest regret.

From what I read about the Humphrey campaign was that they were never confident they would win and viewed it as a somewhat uphill battle right until the end.  They were behind in polling in Texas and Pennsylvania the whole time, which they ended up winning.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Yes. Jimmy Carter led the polls after the conventions but did an interview with playboy

[darklordoftech]

Yes, especially when you consider how bad inflation was and that the GOP had already held the White House for two terms.

[Alben Barkley]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

Agreed. Or if Johnson just leaked information that Nixon was sabotaging the peace talks. Something that was actually worse than Watergate.

That was partly Humphrey's fault. He advised Johnson not to release it, thinking he already had the election in the bag by that point. He would later admit it was his biggest regret.

From what I read about the Humphrey campaign was that they were never confident they would win and viewed it as a somewhat uphill battle right until the end.  They were behind in polling in Texas and Pennsylvania the whole time, which they ended up winning.

My source:

Johnson did make information available to Humphrey, but at this point Humphrey thought he was going to win the election, so he did not reveal the information to the public. Humphrey later regretted this as a mistake.

[Ragnaroni]

He kept California which is surprising. He did well in Michigan too. It was close which is impressive considering the damage to the GOP that Nixon caused.

Perhaps Ford being almost shot by two California women twice within a month while campaigning there helped him out lol

One of the more bizarre sequence of events in US history.

Was it that lady who was in a cult right? I don't fully remember.

[darklordoftech]

He kept California which is surprising. He did well in Michigan too. It was close which is impressive considering the damage to the GOP that Nixon caused.

Perhaps Ford being almost shot by two California women twice within a month while campaigning there helped him out lol

One of the more bizarre sequence of events in US history.

Was it that lady who was in a cult right? I don't fully remember.

The first woman to try to shoot Ford was Squeaky Fromme, who was a member of the Manson Family.

[Ragnaroni]

He kept California which is surprising. He did well in Michigan too. It was close which is impressive considering the damage to the GOP that Nixon caused.

Perhaps Ford being almost shot by two California women twice within a month while campaigning there helped him out lol

One of the more bizarre sequence of events in US history.

Was it that lady who was in a cult right? I don't fully remember.

The first woman to try to shoot Ford was Squeaky Fromme, who was a member of the Manson Family.

That's the one. I'm behind on my cult readings for this month!

[President Johnson]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

Agreed. Or if Johnson just leaked information that Nixon was sabotaging the peace talks. Something that was actually worse than Watergate.

That was partly Humphrey's fault. He advised Johnson not to release it, thinking he already had the election in the bag by that point. He would later admit it was his biggest regret.

From what I read about the Humphrey campaign was that they were never confident they would win and viewed it as a somewhat uphill battle right until the end.  They were behind in polling in Texas and Pennsylvania the whole time, which they ended up winning.

My source:

Johnson did make information available to Humphrey, but at this point Humphrey thought he was going to win the election, so he did not reveal the information to the public. Humphrey later regretted this as a mistake.

For most of the time I actually thought Johnson refrained because he feared Nixon would still win and enter office very damaged.

But I'm sure LBJ would have leaked it, if he himself was the candidate. He wasn't a guy that was playing softball.

[Mr.Phips]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

Agreed. Or if Johnson just leaked information that Nixon was sabotaging the peace talks. Something that was actually worse than Watergate.

That was partly Humphrey's fault. He advised Johnson not to release it, thinking he already had the election in the bag by that point. He would later admit it was his biggest regret.

From what I read about the Humphrey campaign was that they were never confident they would win and viewed it as a somewhat uphill battle right until the end.  They were behind in polling in Texas and Pennsylvania the whole time, which they ended up winning.

My source:

Johnson did make information available to Humphrey, but at this point Humphrey thought he was going to win the election, so he did not reveal the information to the public. Humphrey later regretted this as a mistake.

That was pretty presumptuous for Humphrey and also did not reflect polling reality.  Even at the very end, Nixon led in states worth 299 EVs:

https://dks.library.kent.edu/?a=d&d=dks19681105-01.2.2&e=-------en-20--1--txt-txIN-------

If Humphrey was going to win, he needed something like this tape being released to give him a final boost.

[Mr.Phips]

Very much so considering where he started. Good chance he would have won if the race went on a little longer. The same is true for Humphrey in 1968 by the way.

Agreed. Or if Johnson just leaked information that Nixon was sabotaging the peace talks. Something that was actually worse than Watergate.

That was partly Humphrey's fault. He advised Johnson not to release it, thinking he already had the election in the bag by that point. He would later admit it was his biggest regret.

From what I read about the Humphrey campaign was that they were never confident they would win and viewed it as a somewhat uphill battle right until the end.  They were behind in polling in Texas and Pennsylvania the whole time, which they ended up winning.

My source:

Johnson did make information available to Humphrey, but at this point Humphrey thought he was going to win the election, so he did not reveal the information to the public. Humphrey later regretted this as a mistake.

For most of the time I actually thought Johnson refrained because he feared Nixon would still win and enter office very damaged.

But I'm sure LBJ would have leaked it, if he himself was the candidate. He wasn't a guy that was playing softball.

Why would Johnson care if Nixon entered office damaged?  Thinking this way is why Democrats lost so many times during 1968-2000.

[dw93]

Let's not forget to that LBJ could've landed himself in hotwater leaking the info about Nixon sabotaging the peace talks due to the fact that how LBJ obtained the info was illegal wire taps. Granted, he wouldn't have gotten in nearly as much trouble as Nixon, but still that might've played a role in it.

[Mr.Phips]

Let's not forget to that LBJ could've landed himself in hotwater leaking the info about Nixon sabotaging the peace talks due to the fact that how LBJ obtained the info was illegal wire taps. Granted, he wouldn't have gotten in nearly as much trouble as Nixon, but still that might've played a role in it.

Not if it was an anonymous leak to the major newspapers. He likely would have been dead by the time he was implicated in it.

[oldtimer]

No.

That Carter won was no suprise, but Republicans could have had their standard victory if Reagan had been the nominee.

The political base of Carter and Reagan where almost identical.
Reagan would have denied Carter his southern sweep while also keeping the west.

1980 could have happened in 1976.

[dw93]

No.

That Carter won was no suprise, but Republicans could have had their standard victory if Reagan had been the nominee.

The political base of Carter and Reagan where almost identical.
Reagan would have denied Carter his southern sweep while also keeping the west.

1980 could have happened in 1976.

Any Reagan win in 76 would've been close given that 1976 was a very Democratic year, and Carter likely would've carried the states in the midwest that Ford only narrowly carried in a matchup with Reagan, softening the blow (or at least somewhat softening) of any loses in the south, which I doubt would've been many if any as keep in mind also that even in 1980 Carter only narrowly lost the south. In a much more favorable environment, Carter still would've likely held most of the south. Also keep in mind too that most of the general electorate (and even some Republicans) still saw Reagan as a fringe wing nut in 1976 and that would've hurt him against moderate southerner Carter.

I'd also add that even if Reagan were to narrowly win in 1976, it wouldn't have been 1980 and Reagan would've likely been crushed in 1980 much like Carter was as I think Reagan would've been even less equipped than Carter at mitigating the malaise of the late 70s.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Very much so. The headwinds were against a Republican victory that year. Watergate created a huge "mood for change" factor, and Ford got his share of backlash for pardoning Nixon (although it probably was the smarter move politically - moral victory be damned, getting Nixon out of the public eye and avoiding a prolonged legal battle definitely helped the GOP, and it kept the party united).

Beyond that, America was not in a particularly good place. The economy did bounce back in 1976 and that helped Ford, but the state of the American economy was still pretty weak compared to the 50s and 60s. Nixon had been elected on a law and order platform, but crime was getting worse. The crown jewel of the American empire, New York City, was bankrupt and needed a bailout - this reflected poorly on the state of the American economy, and spending billions of taxpayer dollars bailing out a Democrat-run city wasn't exactly a crowd pleaser among Ford's Republican base. The Vietnam War had ended in humiliation, and the Cold War was in detente, so hawkish anti-Communism wasn't going to rally as many voters.

Democrats basically nominated the perfect guy that year. Southern Democrats had all but abandoned Humphrey and McGovern, but Carter was able to win that base back, taking a huge bite right out of the GOP's Southern Strategy. He was an evangelical with broadly centrist views on social policy, so not exactly "Acid, Amnesty and Abortion". His biography was perfect for a Democratic challenger that year - an outsider from the South (but not a segregationist) who was going to clean up Washington, exactly what voters wanted that year. The Playboy interview hurt him, but overall, everything was in Carter's favor.

So the fact that Ford - an uncharismatic, unpopular president who was never elected to the office and had the baggage of his predecessor - was still able to keep the election that close is pretty impressive. I think it reflects the strength of the Republican Party at the time.

[Mr. Smith]

He kept California which is surprising. He did well in Michigan too. It was close which is impressive considering the damage to the GOP that Nixon caused.

No it isn't. Carter was a garbage choice for California.

McGovern sent that state very far left of the nation, but since he got trashed and didn't pull a Goldwater sort of loss to it [a pity it wasn't Montana, South Dakota, or Oregon that was the odd one], no one seemed to care.

But Dems decided to chase an antiquated and fading base rather than build to the future, because the math was still there for The South, and The Midwest was too shaky. Fair enough, but not helpful come 1980.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

He kept California which is surprising. He did well in Michigan too. It was close which is impressive considering the damage to the GOP that Nixon caused.

No it isn't. Carter was a garbage choice for California.

McGovern sent that state very far left of the nation, but since he got trashed and didn't pull a Goldwater sort of loss to it [a pity it wasn't Montana, South Dakota, or Oregon that was the odd one], no one seemed to care.

But Dems decided to chase an antiquated and fading base rather than build to the future, because the math was still there for The South, and The Midwest was too shaky. Fair enough, but not helpful come 1980.

Well tbf, California was a pretty red state during the Cold War era. Not unwinnable by any means, but also not the California we know today, it was a fairly Republican-leaning state. It hadn't really even shown any signs of trending left yet, the suburbs were the fastest-growing part, and 1970s California suburbanites were a pretty right-wing set.

It's true that the South was fading away from the Democrats, and maybe Democrats were in denial about it. Yet at the same time, during the time between the passing of the Civil Rights Act and the end of the Cold War, there simply weren't enough Democrats elsewhere to replace Southern support. Humphrey and McGovern before Carter, and Mondale and Dukakis afterwards, had little appeal to Dixiecrats, and the rest of the country wasn't particularly liberal either.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think strong economic growth in the election year is what helped. True, it came on the heels of a bad recession, but voters often do respond to the direction the economy is going rather than where it's been.

[Pericles]

I think strong economic growth in the election year is what helped. True, it came on the heels of a bad recession, but voters often do respond to the direction the economy is going rather than where it's been.

You might be onto something, Ford's approval rating was just average. This makes him closer to Trump than the outright unpopular incumbents like Carter and HW Bush who got blown out.

He was also polling competitively in early 1976, so part of Carter's surge might have been a big convention bounce and so it just reflected the volatility of opinion polling at the time.