More Republican: English Americans or German Americans

[King of Kensington]

Obviously there really is no "English vote" or "German vote." These are the two largest ancestry groups in the US.  Their vote really reflects their education, degree of religiosity, region etc.

Still, if everyone declaring English ancestry and everyone declaring German ancestry was tallied, would there be a notable difference?

A much higher percentage of English (41%) live in the South than do German (27%) though.  On the other hand, outside the South English may come out as more liberal than German.  English ancestry is common in New England while German ancestry is rare, and it has the most liberal whites in the country.  However it should be noted that only about 5% of Americans of English ancestry live in New England.

[Bismarck]

Probably English Americans since more live in the south, although I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m the same regions Germans are more conservative than English although the overlap between these groups is so heavy to be almost indistinguishable.

[King of Kensington]

The most "English" places outside the South are New England and the Mormon belt.  Both are rather culturally distinct.  

New England Yankees are perhaps 5% of the English/American ancestry population, Mormons maybe 10%.  

Pennsylvania and the Midwest are clearly the "German American heartland."

[King of Kensington]

I suspect the German American vote in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and Dakotas pretty much matches the white vote in those states.

But in Ohio and Pennsylvania, say, they're going to be more R than the white average I think.

[King of Kensington]

Excellent.  I would say "pretty much identical."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Excellent.  I would say "pretty much identical."

I would also pull for Option 3, though I could see arguments for both groups.

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly Dutch and English basically identical.  Dutch American concentrations are notably conservative but there's little Dutch ancestry in the South. 

[King of Kensington]

And Norwegian a bit lower, again a factor of location I think rather than any specific "Norwegian vote."  Close to 20% in Minnesota alone.  A lot in Washington State too.

[Ragnaroni]

I calculated these estimates awhile ago based on the White vote by County project of mine (the granularity is only at the county level, so there is some degree of error here):

It's close, but reagente's analysis gives a slight, slight edge to English Americans for being more Republican at the time of the 2016 US presidential election.

Major props to the man who made this, this is some real high quality stuff. Russian Americans are interesting, what's the deal with them?

[Ragnaroni]

I calculated these estimates awhile ago based on the White vote by County project of mine (the granularity is only at the county level, so there is some degree of error here):

-SNIP-

It's close, but reagente's analysis gives a slight, slight edge to English Americans for being more Republican at the time of the 2016 US presidential election.

Major props to the man who made this, this is some real high quality stuff. Russian Americans are interesting, what's the deal with them?

Judaism

Makes sense, I assume the Rs are probably Eastern Orthodox Russians

[Sol]

I calculated these estimates awhile ago based on the White vote by County project of mine (the granularity is only at the county level, so there is some degree of error here):

-SNIP-

It's close, but reagente's analysis gives a slight, slight edge to English Americans for being more Republican at the time of the 2016 US presidential election.

Major props to the man who made this, this is some real high quality stuff. Russian Americans are interesting, what's the deal with them?

Judaism

Makes sense, I assume the Rs are probably Eastern Orthodox Russians

IIRC a majority of people answering as Russian-American are Jewish; the bulk of the Republicans are going to be Conservative and Orthodox Jewish people from earlier waves of immigration, plus post-1992 Russian immigrants who are also disproportionately Jewish (and Republican).

[King of Kensington]

It's a county-level measure for white voters.  It's not going to perfectly capture Jews, but there are a lots of surveys and studies of Jewish voters.

[Ragnaroni]

I calculated these estimates awhile ago based on the White vote by County project of mine (the granularity is only at the county level, so there is some degree of error here):

-SNIP-

It's close, but reagente's analysis gives a slight, slight edge to English Americans for being more Republican at the time of the 2016 US presidential election.

Major props to the man who made this, this is some real high quality stuff. Russian Americans are interesting, what's the deal with them?

Judaism

Makes sense, I assume the Rs are probably Eastern Orthodox Russians

IIRC a majority of people answering as Russian-American are Jewish; the bulk of the Republicans are going to be Conservative and Orthodox Jewish people from earlier waves of immigration, plus post-1992 Russian immigrants who are also disproportionately Jewish (and Republican).

Interesting!

[King of Kensington]

Regional distribution:


German ancestry

Northeast  15%
Midwest  38%
South  27%
West  20%

English ancestry

Northeast  14%
Midwest  21%
South  41%
West  24%

Irish ancestry

Northeast  24%
Midwest  24%
South  33%
West  19%

Italian ancestry

Northeast  41%
Midwest  17%
South  25%
West  17%

Polish ancestry

Northeast  31%
Midwest  36%
South  20%
West  13%

French/French Canadian ancestry

Northeast  27%
Midwest  21%
South  33%
West  19%

Scottish ancestry

Northeast  14%
Midwest  20%
South  39%
West  27%

Norwegian ancestry

Northeast  6%
Midwest  47%
South  14%
West  33%

Swedish ancestry

Northeast  13%
Midwest  36%
South  18%
West  33%

Dutch ancestry

Northeast  14%
Midwest  38%
South  24%
West  24%