California Gubernatorial Election, 2010

[SPC]

Given that Schwarzenegger is term-limited, this is sure to be the most crowded governor election since 2003. Here are some potential candidates from both sides:

Democrats:

*Fmr. Lt. Gov., 2003 nominee, and 2006 nominee for Insurance Commisioner Cruz Bustamante

*Fmr. Treasurer and 2006 nomnee Phil Angiledes

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

Republicans:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*Fmr. Congressman and SEC Chairman Chris Cox

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*Congressman Darrell Issa

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

*Governor's Wife Maria Shriver (though Schwarzenegger has said that she would not run, there is still speculation)

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats would be favoured, obviously, and I believe that the next Governor of California is likely to be a Hispanic.  Therefore either Villagorossa or Sanchez.

[RBH]

Schwarzenegger might be eligible in 2010, depending on how you define "terms"

[sethm0]

 Villaraigosa and Westly would both be very good candidates.

[SPC]

I will be adding more to the list shortly.

[AndrewTX]

I think a good race would be Mayor Antonio Villagorossa (D), versus Rep. Darrell Issa (R).

If I were there, and could vote, I'd probably go with Villagorossa.

[SPC]

I will be rating the candidates either first-tier, second-tier, or third-tier:

Democrats:

First Tier:

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

Second Tier:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

Third Tier:

*Fmr. Lt. Gov., 2003 nominee, and 2006 nominee for Insurance Commisioner Cruz Bustamante

*Fmr. Treasurer and 2006 nomnee Phil Angiledes

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

Republicans:


First Tier:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Congressman Darrell Issa

Second Tier:

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*Fmr. Congressman and SEC Chairman Chris Cox

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

Third Tier:

*Governor's Wife Maria Shriver (though Schwarzenegger has said that she would not run, there is still speculation)
[/quote]

[© tweed]

Gavin Newsom?

The scandal hurts him but be still deserves a mention if we're mentioning Angelides.

[SPC]

I'm updating this:

Democrats:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

*San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom

Republicans:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*Congressman Darrell Issa

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

[bullmoose88]

Schwarzenegger might be eligible in 2010, depending on how you define "terms"

Does anyone from California know its rule/definition of term?

Though i suspect it would be best for Arnold and the GOP for him to not run...he's been in there 7 years...still seems popular...the other shoe has to drop...best, politically, to let the bottom fall out under a democrat...rather than him.

Shrug

[SPC]

Schwarzenegger might be eligible in 2010, depending on how you define "terms"

Does anyone from California know its rule/definition of term?

Though i suspect it would be best for Arnold and the GOP for him to not run...he's been in there 7 years...still seems popular...the other shoe has to drop...best, politically, to let the bottom fall out under a democrat...rather than him.

Shrug

I believe that he can't serve for more than 10 years. His term would end in 2015 if he were to run for reelection, and he was sworn in in 2003, so no, he couldn't run again.

[socaldem]

I will be rating the candidates either first-tier, second-tier, or third-tier:

Democrats:

First Tier:

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

Second Tier:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

Third Tier:

*Fmr. Lt. Gov., 2003 nominee, and 2006 nominee for Insurance Commisioner Cruz Bustamante

*Fmr. Treasurer and 2006 nomnee Phil Angiledes

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

Republicans:


First Tier:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Congressman Darrell Issa

Second Tier:

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*Fmr. Congressman and SEC Chairman Chris Cox

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

Third Tier:

*Governor's Wife Maria Shriver (though Schwarzenegger has said that she would not run, there is still speculation)

[/quote]

How are you determining tiers?  Because, imo, the GOP tiers are all messed up.  Rep. Darrell Issa would never ever win statewide in CA so I don't see him as first tier material.  Having lost Sec. State, Bruce McPherson should also, imho, be demoted. 

The top tier GOP candidates, it seems to me, would be SD Mayor Jerry Sanders and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.  They would still have a very tough time of it.  Plus I don't really see Jerry Sanders, a somewhat lackluster mayoral candidate who benefited from a weak opponent, running for higher office. 

As for the Dems, I've heard Garamendi is going to run but he's been such a frequent gubernatorial candidate, I can't take him seriously: third tier.

Don't forget Treasurer and former AG Bill Lockyer probably wants to be governor, too.

[SPC]

I will be rating the candidates either first-tier, second-tier, or third-tier:

Democrats:

First Tier:

*LA Mayor Antonio Villagorossa

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

Second Tier:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

Third Tier:

*Fmr. Lt. Gov., 2003 nominee, and 2006 nominee for Insurance Commisioner Cruz Bustamante

*Fmr. Treasurer and 2006 nomnee Phil Angiledes

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

Republicans:


First Tier:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Congressman Darrell Issa

Second Tier:

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*Fmr. Congressman and SEC Chairman Chris Cox

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

Third Tier:

*Governor's Wife Maria Shriver (though Schwarzenegger has said that she would not run, there is still speculation)

How are you determining tiers?  Because, imo, the GOP tiers are all messed up.  Rep. Darrell Issa would never ever win statewide in CA so I don't see him as first tier material.  Having lost Sec. State, Bruce McPherson should also, imho, be demoted. 

The top tier GOP candidates, it seems to me, would be SD Mayor Jerry Sanders and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.  They would still have a very tough time of it.  Plus I don't really see Jerry Sanders, a somewhat lackluster mayoral candidate who benefited from a weak opponent, running for higher office. 

As for the Dems, I've heard Garamendi is going to run but he's been such a frequent gubernatorial candidate, I can't take him seriously: third tier.

Don't forget Treasurer and former AG Bill Lockyer probably wants to be governor, too.
[/quote]

I was ranking them based on their ability to win a primary.

[Jaggerjack]

As much as I hate to say it, the GOP has literally never had a problem keeping CA's governorship.

[SPC]

My prediction:

I predict that the Democratic primary will ultimately come down to Newsom and Villagorossa, with Brown and Wesley being logshots. As for the Republicans, I think that it will come down to Poizner, Issa, and McClintock, with McClintock ultimately getting the nomination.

In the GE, Newsom beats McClintock 53-44.

[Verily]

My prediction:

I predict that the Democratic primary will ultimately come down to Newsom and Villagorossa, with Brown and Wesley being logshots. As for the Republicans, I think that it will come down to Poizner, Issa, and McClintock, with McClintock ultimately getting the nomination.

In the GE, Newsom beats McClintock 53-44.

I'm not sure why Issa would be a serious candidate again, having been defeated in the 1998 primary and only gotten more controversial since. Also, I can't see Newsom defeating Villaraigosa in a head-to-head primary simply because there would be a lot of voting on regional and ethnic lines to Villaraigosa's benefit. Newsom could win if Loretta Sanchez made a serious run, though.

McClintock against Issa or Poizner would quickly descend into dirty tactics and accusations of being a terrorist supporter (to Issa) or an extremist liberal (to Poizner) on McClintock's part. Of course, that would probably ensure McClintock victory in the rather off-the-wall California GOP that's more often at war with Schwarzenegger and Poizner than with the Democrats these days.

[Jaggerjack]

I'm not exactly optimistic that we'll reclaim California's governorship.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

What about former Governor and current Attorney-General, Jerry Brown. Is he considering a run or is his term restricted?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Where can I pick up my CONSERVATIVE PERENNIAL CANDIDATE WHO WILL LOSE BY 4 POINTS/UNINSPIRING MODERATE RUNNING MATE '10 bumper stickers?

[SPC]

What about former Governor and current Attorney-General, Jerry Brown. Is he considering a run or is his term restricted?

My prediction:

I predict that the Democratic primary will ultimately come down to Newsom and Villagorossa, with Brown and Wesley being logshots. As for the Republicans, I think that it will come down to Poizner, Issa, and McClintock, with McClintock ultimately getting the nomination.

In the GE, Newsom beats McClintock 53-44.

Does this answer your question?

[The Duke]

Jack O'Connell and Bill Lockyer have to on the list of Democratic candidates.  Carly Fiorina has talked about running for Governor on the Republican side.  I'd rank the candidates as follows:

Democratic
First Tier
Antonio Villaraigosa
Jack O'Connell
Bill Lockyer
Second Tier
Jerry Brown
Steve Westly
Third Tier]
Lorretta Sanchez
Gavin Newsome
Fabian Nunez
John Garamendi
Phil Angelides
Cruz Bustamante

Republican
First Tier
Christopher Cox
Tom McClintock
Steve Poizner
Second Tier
Darell Issa
Bruce McPherson
Third Tier
Carly Firorina
Jerry Sanders
Dick Ackerman

The Democrat will be favored in the General Election, though the Republican will have a pretty good shot at it.  Memories of Gray Davis are bitter, and the state will not elect a Democrat to the Governoship if they don't believe that person can keep in check the crazier instincts of the legislature.

[SPC]

I'm updating this:

Democrats:

*Lt. Gov. John Garamendi

*Fmr. State Controller Steve Westly

*Fmr. Gov., Fmr. Oakland Myr., and State Attorney General Jerry Brown

*Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

*Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa

*State Assembly Spkr. Fabian Nunez

*San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom

*State Treasurer and Former Attorney General Bill Lockyer

Republicans:

*Fmr. Sec. of State Bruce McPhearson

*State Sntr., 2003 Gov. candidate, and 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee Tom McClintock

*Insurance Commisioner Steve Poizner

*San Diego Myr. Jerry Sanders

*Congressman Darrell Issa

*State Sen. Min. Ldr. Dick Ackerman

Here are my tiers:

First Tier
Democrats
Villaraigosa
Newsom
Lockyer

Republicans
McClintock
Poizner
Issa

Second Tier
Democrats
Brown
Westley
Sanchez

Republicans
Ackerman
McPherson

Third Tier
Democrats
Garamendi
Nunez

Republicans
Sanders

[© tweed]

lol, is Jerry Brown seriously going to run again?  if he does, I'd probably support him for nostalgia's sake, even though Jello Biafra probably wouldn't. 

[SPC]

lol, is Jerry Brown seriously going to run again?  if he does, I'd probably support him for nostalgia's sake, even though Jello Biafra probably wouldn't. 

He's probably thinking about it. Politics is his life. He's run for Governor twice before, President thrice, Oakland mayor once, and he's now the state Attorney General.

[Kevin]

How liberal is Steve Poizner exactly? I know he is a very liberal Republican but how liberal is he really?