New England

[King of Kensington]

The rest of the US seems to pretty much have demographic-driven voting at this point (education, race, religiosity, with region really playing little to no role).  Is New England just demographic-driven - or is the WWC more Democratic than one would expect on demographics alone?

[Skill and Chance]

Like 2/5 people went to college New England wide, so the WWC just isn't that large anymore there.  Keep in mind that the Northern WWC is only like 50-something R to 30-something D.  The one area they do dominate within New England (ME-02) does now vote Republican.

[King of Kensington]

Indeed.  Every New England state is in the top 17 states.

College graduates

Massachusetts 46.62%
Vermont 44.44%
Connecticut 42.13%
New Hampshire 40.25%
Rhode Island 36.5%
Maine 35.99%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Rural New England is also extremely secular relative to rural regions in most of the rest of the country.  Suburban New England doesn't really have the evangelical megachurches you see in the suburbs in the South, Midwest, and even the West, either.

[King of Kensington]

Indeed:

Massachusetts

Evangelical Protestant  9%
Mainline Protestant  10%
Catholic  34%
Unaffiliated  32%

Vermont

Evangelical Protestant  11%
Mainline Protestant  19%
Catholic  22%
Unaffiliated  37%

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/state/massachusetts/

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/state/vermont/

[King of Kensington]

Noncollege whites voted for Biden in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont.

[King of Kensington]

According to the Pew Forum, Congregationalists - the traditional religion of New England Yankees - only make up 3% of the population of Massachusetts (Episcopalians are 2%).  So it seems like a lot of New England Yankee descendants no longer identify with a religion at all.

[Skill and Chance]

According to the Pew Forum, Congregationalists - the traditional religion of New England Yankees - only make up 3% of the population of Massachusetts (Episcopalians are 2%).  So it seems like a lot of New England Yankee descendants no longer identify with a religion at all.

Oh wow, they are basically extinct now!  The same thing seems to be playing out with the Anglican church in old England today. 

[MT Treasurer]

Like 2/5 people went to college New England wide, so the WWC just isn't that large anymore there.  Keep in mind that the Northern WWC is only like 50-something R to 30-something D.  The one area they do dominate within New England (ME-02) does now vote Republican.

Do you still think New England is the modern-day equivalent of the old Solid South (with ME-02 being comparable to a place like East Tennessee)? You made that comment in September 2010, and surprisingly (probably even to you), it has held up so far, at least at the federal level.

[Skill and Chance]

Like 2/5 people went to college New England wide, so the WWC just isn't that large anymore there.  Keep in mind that the Northern WWC is only like 50-something R to 30-something D.  The one area they do dominate within New England (ME-02) does now vote Republican.

Do you still think New England is the modern-day equivalent of the old Solid South (with ME-02 being comparable to a place like East Tennessee)? You made that comment in September 2010, and surprisingly (probably even to you), it has held up so far, at least at the federal level.

Right for the wrong reasons.

[kwabbit]

I suspect that even if you control for every demographic variable, there is still a Democratic residual in New England. That's what it really means for something to be ancestrally Democratic/Republican.

For example, is Collin County ancestrally Republican? Or did it just used to be a Whiter, more exurban county and is now diverse and suburban? I'd imagine that Orange County still has a significant GOP residual, although somewhat less so than before, but Collin no longer does and never had much of one.

[King of Kensington]

According to the Pew Forum, Congregationalists - the traditional religion of New England Yankees - only make up 3% of the population of Massachusetts (Episcopalians are 2%).  So it seems like a lot of New England Yankee descendants no longer identify with a religion at all.

Oh wow, they are basically extinct now!  The same thing seems to be playing out with the Anglican church in old England today. 

This point dawned on me when I saw that Trump edged out Biden among white Protestants in Massachusetts (50-48).  Looking further, 10% of the electorate were white evangelicals and only 17% were white Protestants - in other words a majority of self-reported white Protestants were evangelical. Obviously you can't look at white Protestant as proxy for the "WASP" vote, the children and grandchildren of Congregationalists and Episcopalians are very much in the none category.

[King of Kensington]

Interesting to compare the New England states in religion.  Mass is "urban Catholic" rather than "rural Yankee" but it has a much higher level of irreligiosity than Connecticut and Rhode Island.

Connecticut

Christian  70%
Protestant  35%
Catholic  33%
None  23%

Rhode Island

Christian  72%
Protestant  30%
Catholic  42%
None  20%

Massachusetts

Christian  58%
Protestant  21%
Catholic  34%
None  32%

Vermont

Christian  54%
Protestant  30%
Catholic  22%
None  37%

New Hampshire

Christian  59%
Protestant  30%
Catholic  26%
None  36%

Maine

Christian  60%
Protestant  37%
Catholic  21%
None  31%

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting to compare the New England states in religion.  Mass is "urban Catholic" rather than "rural Yankee" but it has a much higher level of irreligiosity than Connecticut and Rhode Island.

Connecticut

Christian  70%
Protestant  35%
Catholic  33%
None  23%

Rhode Island

Christian  72%
Protestant  30%
Catholic  42%
None  20%

Massachusetts

Christian  58%
Protestant  21%
Catholic  34%
None  32%

Vermont

Christian  54%
Protestant  30%
Catholic  22%
None  37%

New Hampshire

Christian  59%
Protestant  30%
Catholic  26%
None  36%

Maine

Christian  60%
Protestant  37%
Catholic  21%
None  31%

I wonder what abortion referendums vs. would look like vs. presidential vote in states like MA and RI?  I suspect they would both be pro-life > generic R states like LA, but obviously not by enough to win.

[King of Kensington]

And how differently would Mass. and Rhode Island vote?

[Skill and Chance]

And how differently would Mass. and Rhode Island vote?

Hmmm... the Louisiana abortion ban outran Trump by 4% statewide and by 10% in New Orleans.  Shreveport voted for Biden while voting >60% for the abortion ban!  It underperformed Trump by 5% and 10% in the 2 wealthiest parishes.  I would expect something similar here with the biggest swings in Providence, South Boston, and Dem former mill towns like Lawrence, Lowell, and Fall River.  On the other hand, Middlesex and Newport would clearly be pro-choice > generic Dem. 

So something like 59/41 pro-choice in MA and 54/46 pro-choice in RI?

[King of Kensington]

AP Votecast survey (abortion legal/illegal in all/most cases):

Massachusetts  77-23 legal
Rhode Island  73-27 legal

[Skill and Chance]

AP Votecast survey (abortion legal/illegal in all/most cases):

Massachusetts  77-23 legal
Rhode Island  73-27 legal

So that would suggest > Biden numbers depending  on what exactly legal is. 

However, note Massachusetts had a death with dignity referendum in 2012.   It polled about 60/40 yes, but it ended up being 52/48 no with a huge shy no vote. 

[King of Kensington]

1988 New England map - Bush edged out Dukakis by 0.2 points

https://twitter.com/wisconsinmapper/status/1633253051887763458