Why does Maine vote more Democratic than New Hampshire?

[nclib]

Serious question.

In Presidential Elections, this has been the case since (including) 1964.

I find this interesting since NH has a higher population density than Maine, and is closer to Mass. and Vt.

Anyone know why?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think because NH has a strong economically conservative base and is more of a hunting state supporting gun owner rights

[minionofmidas]

NH's most densely populated parts are basically Boston exurbs.

And then there's the whole logging traditions thing in Maine... and the large French Catholic presence...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Serious question.

In Presidential Elections, this has been the case since (including) 1964.

I find this interesting since NH has a higher population density than Maine, and is closer to Mass. and Vt.

Anyone know why?

The bolded part nailed it. Boston commutervilles, mostly populated by people who fled Mass over taxes.

Population densities can be misleading by the way. Canada has a FAR FAR lower population density than the US, but a greater percentage of Canadians live in urban areas. The number is just greatly brought down by the vast expanses of very very empty space. Same with Russia.

[YRABNNRM]

I think because NH has a strong economically conservative base and is more of a hunting state supporting gun owner rights

Maine is much more of a hunting state than NH.

[nclib]

Population densities can be misleading by the way. Canada has a FAR FAR lower population density than the US, but a greater percentage of Canadians live in urban areas. The number is just greatly brought down by the vast expanses of very very empty space. Same with Russia.

Good point, though in the case of Maine and New Hampshire, Kerry lost only two counties in Maine, but four in NH, even though NH has fewer counties.

[Verily]

Perhaps the most important thing is that Republicanism is more of a tradition in New Hampshire. New Hampshire has (or had) an extremely powerful GOP infrastructure that ran targeted and effective campaign in the state for decades. Maine, with its strong independent streak, never developed such a partisan machine.

Furthermore, as others have pointed out, many of the people of New Hampshire are ex-Massachusettsians who preferred to live in a state with no income tax and lower property taxes, natural Rockefeller Republicans upon whom the state's Republicanism was long seated.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Hunting and Republicanism certainly do NOT correlate.

Pretty much everybody hunts in northern Minnesota.  And pretty much everyone in northern Minnesota is a Democrat.  You will not find many pro gun control people here.

I would assume it's the same with Maine.  You can't assume because it's rural that it's going to be conservative.  That might work in some places, but not in the northwoods.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Maine shares too much of a border w/Canada

[Gustaf]

Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire (used to anyway)

[Kevinstat]

I think the fact that Maine never had, as far as I could tell, anything like the Manchester Union Leader might have something to do with it.  Liberal postmaterialism was allowed to take hold in Maine in a way it wasn't in New Hampshire, and postmaterialists (whether they would consider themselves that themselves - some would call them Latte Liberals but they need not be upper or even upper-middle class I don't think) combine with the partially overlapping union vote (clerical-type state employees can be pretty conservative both fiscally and socially, but many of them probably vote mostly Democratic out of what could be described as self-interest regarding their continued jobs and perhaps wages and benefits - although their has been more of an effort recently of some state employees upset with a "fair share" union dues provision for non-union employees to decertify the union) - those groups and social libertarians (which do overlap quite a bit with postmaterialists) often give the Democrats enough votes to win.

[Verily]

Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire (used to anyway)

But this tradition is long since fallen into decline and destroyed. The Republican dominance in New Hampshire is much more current. Maine's political status in 1936 is not particularly important; Vermont was also a Republican stronghold at the time.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Serious question.

In Presidential Elections, this has been the case since (including) 1964.

I find this interesting since NH has a higher population density than Maine, and is closer to Mass. and Vt.

Anyone know why?

Its more canadian

[Alcon]

Its more canadian

Err...that's...a good explanation for Aroostook County.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Its more canadian

Err...that's...a good explanation for Aroostook County.

Aroostook County WAS canadian at one point was it not?

[minionofmidas]

Its more canadian

Err...that's...a good explanation for Aroostook County.

For Androscoggin as well.

[WalterMitty]

isnt maine the poorest state in ne?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Its more canadian

Err...that's...a good explanation for Aroostook County.

For Androscoggin as well.

Probably.

[Verily]

Its more canadian

Err...that's...a good explanation for Aroostook County.

For Androscoggin as well.

Not really. Androscoggin has a high Franco-Canadian population, but the cities of Lewiston and Auburn that make up most of the county's population are pretty generic American industrial towns. (Lewiston and Auburn together would be the largest city in Maine; they act essentially as one city.) They were major mill towns, so they attracted a lot of Franco-Canadians upset with British influence in Quebec in the 1800s.

There is also a bizarrely large Somali population in Lewiston.

Most of Aroostook County was British until the Aroostook War between the US and Britain in 1838. It's never been Canadian.

In any case, Androscoggin was only slightly more Democratic than Maine in 2004, and Aroostook was less Democratic than Maine as a whole.

[Gustaf]

Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire (used to anyway)

But this tradition is long since fallen into decline and destroyed. The Republican dominance in New Hampshire is much more current. Maine's political status in 1936 is not particularly important; Vermont was also a Republican stronghold at the time.

Err...I know. I don't see how that is at all relevant. The statement made was that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because of tradition. That is ludicrous since Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire. If you'e defining tradition of voting Republican as recently voting for Republicans quite a lot the statement becomes more or less "the reason why New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine is that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine". Which is kind of trivial.

[Verily]

Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire (used to anyway)

But this tradition is long since fallen into decline and destroyed. The Republican dominance in New Hampshire is much more current. Maine's political status in 1936 is not particularly important; Vermont was also a Republican stronghold at the time.

Err...I know. I don't see how that is at all relevant. The statement made was that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because of tradition. That is ludicrous since Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire. If you'e defining tradition of voting Republican as recently voting for Republicans quite a lot the statement becomes more or less "the reason why New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine is that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine". Which is kind of trivial.

Trivial? No. New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because it has done so for the past four decades, and therefore the Republicans have a much better establishment in New Hampshire. If you want to know why Maine voted more Democratic than New Hampshire in the 1960s, you'll have to ask a different question.

[Gustaf]

Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire (used to anyway)

But this tradition is long since fallen into decline and destroyed. The Republican dominance in New Hampshire is much more current. Maine's political status in 1936 is not particularly important; Vermont was also a Republican stronghold at the time.

Err...I know. I don't see how that is at all relevant. The statement made was that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because of tradition. That is ludicrous since Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire. If you'e defining tradition of voting Republican as recently voting for Republicans quite a lot the statement becomes more or less "the reason why New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine is that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine". Which is kind of trivial.

Trivial? No. New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because it has done so for the past four decades, and therefore the Republicans have a much better establishment in New Hampshire. If you want to know why Maine voted more Democratic than New Hampshire in the 1960s, you'll have to ask a different question.

So you're saying that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because New Hampshire has voted more Republican than Maine. That isn't really much of an analysis to me.

Recent New Hampshire gubernatorial elections: 5-4 to GOP
Recent Maine gubernatorial elections: 2-1 to Dem, with 2 Indy.

Recent New Hampshire senatorial elections: 4 GOP
Recent Maine senatorial elections: 4 GOP

Not really a huge difference I'd say. Now, Maine was staunchly Republican for more than a century while New Hampshire was not. I don't see why that wouldn't be considered the tradition factor. It's hardly plausible to argue that in this case.

[Verily]

Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire (used to anyway)

But this tradition is long since fallen into decline and destroyed. The Republican dominance in New Hampshire is much more current. Maine's political status in 1936 is not particularly important; Vermont was also a Republican stronghold at the time.

Err...I know. I don't see how that is at all relevant. The statement made was that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because of tradition. That is ludicrous since Maine has a stronger Republican tradition than New Hampshire. If you'e defining tradition of voting Republican as recently voting for Republicans quite a lot the statement becomes more or less "the reason why New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine is that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine". Which is kind of trivial.

Trivial? No. New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because it has done so for the past four decades, and therefore the Republicans have a much better establishment in New Hampshire. If you want to know why Maine voted more Democratic than New Hampshire in the 1960s, you'll have to ask a different question.

So you're saying that New Hampshire votes more Republican than Maine because New Hampshire has voted more Republican than Maine. That isn't really much of an analysis to me.

Recent New Hampshire gubernatorial elections: 5-4 to GOP
Recent Maine gubernatorial elections: 2-1 to Dem, with 2 Indy.

Recent New Hampshire senatorial elections: 4 GOP
Recent Maine senatorial elections: 4 GOP

Not really a huge difference I'd say. Now, Maine was staunchly Republican for more than a century while New Hampshire was not. I don't see why that wouldn't be considered the tradition factor. It's hardly plausible to argue that in this case.

You're missing the all-important facet of the state level, where the Republicans have dominated for decades New Hampshire but have not dominated Maine. It is that state level strength that has given New Hampshire Republicans the infrastructure to run effective and efficient campaigns and to effectively block out the Democrats from running successfully for House or Senate (until 2006). Looking at only four recent elections is meaningless; look at 1980 to the present.

Of course, that's not the only reason that New Hampshire has recently been closer than Maine, but strong party infrastructure and a powerful establishment plays a large role in the New Hampshire GOP's continued strength compared to other Republican Parties.

Why Maine stopped being a Republican stronghold in the 1960s and 70s is something I can't answer, but it's not tradition so much as establishment that has allowed the New Hampshire GOP to retain its influence.

[Kevinstat]

Why Maine stopped being a Republican stronghold in the 1960s and 70s is something I can't answer

Let's have that be the question we focus on so we can stop this non-constructive Verily-Gustaf argument.  What caused Maine to become more Democratic than New Hampshire and what factors (beyond the fact that this situation has been the case since the 1960s or 70s which Verily has verily (sp?) pointed out) have helped it (Maine being more Democratic than New Hampshire) stay that way?  I have pointed out that Maine didn't have the Manchester Union Leader (I forgot to mention the anti-tax or at least anti-income tax pledge I've read it pressed every candidate for Governor and the General Court to sign) and that postmaterialism (or in other words, a quasi-socialist (not meant to be a negative, that's up to you) mindset beyond simply perceived self-interest voting of the lower classes, union workers and state employees (again, not stated as a negative, particularly for the less well off, although people can and will argue day and night over whether it's shameful for state employees and those who might depend on welfare programs or a higher minimum wage and such - for those voters to vote for people who will keep, increase those benefits or jobs) ) and eventually what conservatives probably mean by latte liberalism were allowed to take root.  Others have mentioned the French Canadian heratige of parts of Maine.  Let's continue, or at least let's not keep arguing over the same old thing (the relevance of Maine's having voted more Democratic than New Hampshire since the 60s or 70s).

[Gustaf]

Why Maine stopped being a Republican stronghold in the 1960s and 70s is something I can't answer

Let's have that be the question we focus on so we can stop this non-constructive Verily-Gustaf argument.  What caused Maine to become more Democratic than New Hampshire and what factors (beyond the fact that this situation has been the case since the 1960s or 70s which Verily has verily (sp?) pointed out) have helped it (Maine being more Democratic than New Hampshire) stay that way?  I have pointed out that Maine didn't have the Manchester Union Leader (I forgot to mention the anti-tax or at least anti-income tax pledge I've read it pressed every candidate for Governor and the General Court to sign) and that postmaterialism (or in other words, a quasi-socialist (not meant to be a negative, that's up to you) mindset beyond simply perceived self-interest voting of the lower classes, union workers and state employees (again, not stated as a negative, particularly for the less well off, although people can and will argue day and night over whether it's shameful for state employees and those who might depend on welfare programs or a higher minimum wage and such - for those voters to vote for people who will keep, increase those benefits or jobs) ) and eventually what conservatives probably mean by latte liberalism were allowed to take root.  Others have mentioned the French Canadian heratige of parts of Maine.  Let's continue, or at least let's not keep arguing over the same old thing (the relevance of Maine's having voted more Democratic than New Hampshire since the 60s or 70s).

Your non-constructive.

The point is that Maine used to be more Republican. When that changed, in the 60s, tradition couldn't have been the reason. Those few decades aren't enough to constitute a tradition, IMO.