2004 if Rhenquist dies a year earlier

[BigVic]

How would the election campaign play out if Chief Justice William Rhenquist died a year earlier than IRL? A Supreme Court battle and confirmation of a Chief Justice will make this interesting. A CJ vacancy in an October surprise.

Who wins? Discuss with maps.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, I don't think it would have made any difference. W nominates a successor and wins instant senate confirmation despite 2004 being an election year. The GOP controlled the senate and nominations for justices were less controversial back in the day.

[BigVic]

Nominating a SCOTUS justice and replacement were uneventful prior to Trump

[Sir Mohamed]

Nominating a SCOTUS justice and replacement were uneventful prior to Trump

You just answered your own question?

[UWS]

It would have increased Dubya's conservative base even further as moral values were considered most important issue by 22 % of voters (though foreign policy is regarded as more important issue by 34 % of all voters with terror and Iraq combined)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

And moral values include religion, abortion, marriage, etc. And if Bush nominated John Roberts in 2004 to replace Rhenquist, that gives him a vote in favor of a ban on partial-birth abortion, which John Kerry voted against. So with a more mobilized conservative base and so with higher Republican turnout, I think Bush flips Wisconsin, thus winning re-election with at least 296 Electoral Votes

[BigVic]

It would have increased Dubya's conservative base even further as moral values were considered most important issue by 22 % of voters (though foreign policy is regarded as more important issue by 34 % of all voters with terror and Iraq combined)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

And moral values include religion, abortion, marriage, etc. And if Bush nominated John Roberts in 2004 to replace Rhenquist, that gives him a vote in favor of a ban on partial-birth abortion, which John Kerry voted against. So with a more mobilized conservative base and so with higher Republican turnout, I think Bush flips Wisconsin, thus winning re-election with at least 296 Electoral Votes

MN could've been reachable giving Bush the famous 306-232 victory.

[UWS]

It would have increased Dubya's conservative base even further as moral values were considered most important issue by 22 % of voters (though foreign policy is regarded as more important issue by 34 % of all voters with terror and Iraq combined)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

And moral values include religion, abortion, marriage, etc. And if Bush nominated John Roberts in 2004 to replace Rhenquist, that gives him a vote in favor of a ban on partial-birth abortion, which John Kerry voted against. So with a more mobilized conservative base and so with higher Republican turnout, I think Bush flips Wisconsin, thus winning re-election with at least 296 Electoral Votes

MN could've been reachable giving Bush the famous 306-232 victory.

And maybe even New Hampshire, giving Bush a 310 EVs second term victory

[Agonized-Statism]

Would be relevant to the debate over gay marriage. Judicial extension of marriage rights to same-sex couples was considered a possibility even then, and a big reason why the Federal Marriage Amendment was proposed.