McConnell aligned poll - Manchin leads Mooney and Morrisey, down double digits to Justice.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

"Justice has near-universal name ID in West Virginia, according to the poll, and would start with an early lead in a potential three-way primary among Morrisey and Mooney. The survey shows Justice with 53 percentage points in the primary, Morrisey with 21 percent and Mooney with 16 percent. The poll was taken in early February and has a 4.1 percentage point margin of error."

"And in a race against Manchin, Justice leads 52-42, according to the poll, while the Democrat leads Mooney in a potential head-to-head 55-40 and Morrisey 52-42. Manchin defeated Morrisey by about 3 points in 2018."


https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/15/gop-poll-justice-manchin-00082899

[AncestralDemocrat.]

The assumption that Manchin is DOA seems to rest on the assumption that West Virginia has somehow lurched rightward since 2018. There is literally no evidence of this; the state trended left in 2020. It seems quite clear the GOP has hit its ceiling there and the state is no more Republican today than it was when Manchin won re-election in 2018. Yes, you could argue that because 2024 will be a presidential year and possibly or probably a less Democratic year than 2018, that puts Manchin at a disadvantage. But it doesn't mean he's gonna get Blanched. I wouldn't be shocked at all by a close race, including a narrow Manchin win, and think Monongalia County will be the first in WV to vote D in a presidential race since 2008 in any case.

The expert raters so far all have this race as tossup or Lean R for a reason.

We have lurched rightward since 2018.. downballot.

The Dem state party has lost 27 House of Delegates seats in two cycles (58-41 R majority to 88-12).. 10 in the senate. (20-14 R majority to 31-3, after a recent defection).

Not to mention Joe had goodwill prompted by his Kav vote in 18 which has long been extinguished.