2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting

[Gass3268]

Is the DC district the bluest in the country or will it be surpassed by one in the Bay Area?

Similarly, is the Central Appalachia district the reddest or is there a redder district either further out west?

The DC based district is the bluest district in the country. There are actually 3 districts bluer than a Bay area based seat, two of which (Northern NYC and Southern NYC) we've already seen and the other two are in the Chicagoland and Los Angeles. There are 3 districts redder than the Central Appalachia district, two centered in Texas and one in the Mid-South region. Once I'm doing going through these I'll provide my spreadsheet in addition to the map.

[Gass3268]

District 32: Southern Piedmont
Population: 3,217,353 (-2.93%)
States: Georgia (26.27%), North Carolina (25.26%) and South Carolina (48.46%)
Largest City: Athens, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+20
Biden/Trump: 32.00%-66.59%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.07%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.29%
Demographics: 72% White, 9% Hispanic, 15% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district was kind of a left over district that came about after drawing the surrounding districts with the core of it being the Upstate South Carolina. That said it does connect large portions of the southern Appalachian Piedmont. This includes a number of metropolitan areas that lie right before the mountains including Athens, Greenville, Hickory, and Spartansburg.

2022 Election: Pam Genant (D-Valdese, NC) vs Lindsey Graham (R-Seneca, SC)
Explanation: It’s possible that Lidnsey Graham could get primaried here given just how Republican this district is. However, I went against as he has solid backing from Trump and he’s savvy enough to avoid getting knocked off twice in the past. Whoever replaces him once his time in the Senate is up will be much further to the right than he is.

[Gass3268]

District 33: Southeastern Appalachia
Population: 3,363,556 (1.48%)
States: Georgia (4.51%), North Carolina (18.82%), Tennessee (73.91%) and Virginia (2.76)
Largest City: Knoxville, Tennessee
Cook PVI: R+19
Biden/Trump: 32.60%-65.70%
2016->2020 Swing: D+3.42%
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.06%
Demographics: 84% White, 5% Hispanic, 6% Black, 2% Asian, 3% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This was one of the easier districts to draw. It starts with the Grand Division of East Tennessee, which provides the vast majority of the population for this seat. A little more population was added with the addition of the Bristol and Chattanooga Metropolitan Areas that are in Virginia and Georgia respectively. Western North Carolina provided the remainder of the necessary population.

2022 Election: Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (D-Asheville, NC) vs Glen Jaocbs (R-Knoxville, TN)
Explanation: Prior to 2018 both of Tenenssee’s Senators would have resided in this district, but as the power base of the Tennessee Republican Party has shifted to Middle Tenneseee, so has both of their Senators. Glen Jacobs, the Mayor of Knox County, feels like someone who has a desire to eventually move up in the political world and I think he’d have a good base out of the Knoxville area to win the primary. Yes, I know, I made the pro-wrestler Kane a United States Senator.

[Gass3268]

Can anyone guess the process/pattern I'm using to order/number the districts?

[Gass3268]

District 34: Bluegrass & Lower Ohio River Valley
Population: 3,363,095 (+1.47%)
States: Indiana (28.34%) and Kentucky (71.66%)
Largest City: Louisville, Kentucky
Cook PVI: R+11
Biden/Trump: 41.14%-56.88%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.07%
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.71%
Demographics: 79% White, 5% Hispanic, 11% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: At the heart of this district is the Louisville Metropolitan Area. That’s the main reason why this Kentucky based seat also takes in a large chuck of Southern Indiana. The Louisville Metropolitan Area only makes up a little less than 40% of what is needed. So I decided to attach the Lexington Metropolitan Area to add an additional 15%, in addition to the rest of the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. To complete the district, I added all Southern Indiana south of Bloomington and Columbus. This includes all of the Evansville Metropolitan Area on both sides of the river. I then added a few counties on the Kentucky side of the Ohio River for aesthetic purposes.

2022 Election: Ray McCormick (D-Vincennes, IN) vs Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville, KY)
Explanation: This is Mitch McConnell’s seat. Don’t need to say much more than that. It’s possible that in the future, someone like Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear could make this seat competitive for Democrats, but then again successful state level Democrats in the South typically struggle when they try to make the jump to the federal side.

[Gass3268]

District 35: Cumberland River Watershed
Population: 3,169,542 (-4.37%)
States: Kentucky (16.91%) and Tennessee (83.09%)
Largest City: Nashville, Tennessee
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 36.30%-61.71%
2016->2020 Swing: D+4.11%
2016->2020 Trend: D+1.74%
Demographics: 75% White, 8% Hispanic, 12% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The districts based in Tennessee were all pretty easy to draw because the Grand Divisions are so well established. This seat takes almost all of Middle Tennessee (unfortunately I had give the next district the Clarksville Metropolitan Area for population reasons). To then fill out the remainder of the necessary population I then went into Southern Kentucky to grab both the Bowling Green Metropolitan Area and the Lake Cumberland area.

2022 Election: Keeda Haynes (D-Goodlettsville, TN) vs Masha Blackburn (R-Brentwood, TN)
Explanation: Three different Republican Senators live in this district (Marsha Blackburn, Bill Hagerty and Rand Paul) and I imagine it would be a battle royal between the three of them. I would give the edge to Blackburn as I think she would do better in the critical Nashville suburbs, especially south of the city given her time in the House representing large portions of this area. Paul would do well in Kentucky, but that makes up such a small portion of this district. Blackburn would have no issue in the general election. 

[Gass3268]

District 36: Mid-South
Population: 3,326,556 (+0.36%)
States: Arkansas (16.14%), Illinois (18.04%), Kentucky (12.76%), Mississippi (8.24%), Missouri (12.73%) and Tennessee (32.09%)
Largest City: Clarksville, Tennessee
Cook PVI: R+25
Biden/Trump: 26.26%-72.04%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +0.01%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +2.35%
Demographics: 79% White, 4% Hispanic, 13% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Navie

Drawing Thought Process: The origins of this district starts in West Tennessee, where it gets the largest plurality of its population. This does not include the City of Memphis however as that is included in a Mississippi River Delta district that will be discussed later. I had to be creative when drawing the rest of this district, because some things were already established by the time I got to this area. First, I decided to add the Jackson Purchase area of Kentucky in addition to the remainder of western part of the state. Culturally similar areas were then added in both Northeastern Arkansas and Southeastern Missouri. I then figured Northeastern Mississippi would fit here. I then had the predicament of finding an additional 15-20% of the population. The only logical place to go here was the more culturally southern region of Little Egypt, Illinois. Finally, at the end I was still short when it came to population, so I had to take Clarksville, Tennessee from the prior district. While this district looks odd, I feel like all put together they have a decent community of interest.

2022 Election: Monte Hodges (D-Blytheville, AR)  vs David Kustoff (R-Germantown, TN)
Explanation: Given just how much of the population of this district resides in West Tennessee, I think the Senator from this district will come from there as well. Rep. Kustoff seems like the most likely choice. I have to imagine the primary could be pretty active with a number of other larger names jumping. Like I could see Mary Miller jumping into this race and making some bigoted remark about Kustoff’s faith. The Republican wins the general in a cakewalk here.

[Gass3268]

Can you elaborate on why you called it Mid South? It’s an ok name but I’m not sure what else to call it. A district containing Illinois being called South just feels wrong in my bones lol

Maybe Confluence, from the Mississippi and Ohio River?

I mean I guess I could have gone with the name Mid-South & Little Egypt, but Wikipedia doesn't have an issue with it

The Mid-South is an informally-defined region of the United States, usually thought to be anchored by the Memphis metropolitan area and consisting of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, Southern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Central, Northeast, and Eastern Arkansas, Northwest Alabama and even Eastern Oklahoma.[2] Southern Illinois (especially Cairo, shown on the map) and Southwestern Indiana are sometimes included in this region.

Mid-South

[Gass3268]

I'll have some more updates tomorrow.

[Gass3268]

District 37: Central Chicagoland
Population: 3,224,903 (-2.70%)
States: Illinois (91.94%) and Indiana (8.06%)
Largest City: South & West Sides of Chicago, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+32
Biden/Trump: 81.19%-17.32%
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +4.09%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +6.45%
Demographics: 23% White, 35% Hispanic, 39% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native
VRA Demographics: 25% White, 32% Hispanic, 38% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Pretty simple idea with this district, the idea here was to combine all of the Black and Hispanic neighborhoods in the CIty of Chicago with nearby cities in the metro areas that fit the same parameters. This included Gary, Hammond, Cicero, Chicago Heights, Maywood, and others. The end result is a very diverse district.

2022 Election: Robin Kelly (D-Matteson, IL) vs Geno Young (R-Chicago, IL)
Explanation: This district is also the second most Democratic district in the country, so all of the action will be in the Democratic primary. In terms of voter engagement, the African American community has always seen higher turnout than the Hispanic community, so I imagine the Senator here would come from that community. Robin Kelly feels like a good bet here, she has attempted statewide office runs before and she was the chair of the Illinois Democratic Party for little over a year.

[Gass3268]

District 38: Western Chicagoland
Population: 3,345,472 (+0.93)
States: Illinois (86.29%) and Indiana (13.71%)
Largest City: Aurora, Illinois
Cook PVI: D+1
Biden/Trump: 52.42%-45.64%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.04%
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The Central Chicagoland district was drawn first and then the idea with this district was to take all of the Chicago Metropolitan Area that is to the south and west of District 37. Was one of the easier districts to draw.

2022 Election: Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville, IL) vs Seth Lewis (R-Bartlett, IL)
Explanation: Not too long ago this district would have been one of the more consistently Republican districts in the country. That is not the case any more. I’m pretty confident that all of the statewide Democrats won the Illinois side of this in 2022 and the Indiana portion would not be large enough to overcome that. I have to imagine that a number of Democrats would be interested in running here and it’s also I think it’s a district that Republicans would have been excited to run in. I think Lauren Underwood would do well in a Democratic primary in this district. On the Republican side there are no current congressmen in this district, so instead of running for the Illinois State Senate, I think state Rep. Seth Lewis runs here and narrowly loses.

[Gass3268]

District 39: Wabash River Watershed
Population: 3,275,555 (-1.17%)
States: Indiana (100%)
Largest City: Indianapolis, Indiana
Cook PVI: R+8
Biden/Trump:44.29%-53.67%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +5.01%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.64%
Demographics: 74% White, 7% Hispanic, 13% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: At the core of this district is the Indianapolis Metropolitan Area. However, that only provided 63% of the necessary population for a district. I decided to fill in the rest of the district by adding the smaller metro areas that surround Indianaplist. This includes Bloomington, Columbus, Lafayette, Kokomo, Terre Haute, and a few micropolitan areas.

2022 Election: Christina Hale (D-Indianapolis, IN) vs Todd Young (R-Bloomington, IN)
Explanation: This is a pretty solid Republican district and home of incumbent Senator Todd Young.  He won this district by 13 points in 2022, a 5 point improvement compared to his victory in 2016 over Evan Byah, and he would win it here in this scenario by a similar margin.  It should be noted that this 5 point improvement is much smaller than the 11 point improvement he saw across the Hoosier State. It’s possible this district could be competitive later in the decade or early in the next if the swings in Indianapolis and suburbs continue.

[Gass3268]

I think for the Chicago area, I would've had the Chicago district contain all of it + Black South Cook and Hispanic West Cook, have the North Chicagoland wealthy suburbs, then the South Chicagoland and Indiana more working class suburbs. Basically what you had but the Chicago grabs the North side of the city, the North Chicagoland grabs Dupage, and the South Chicagoland grabs Indiana.

For this exercise, I am using the thought process that city borders are not arbitrary, in which case Chicago should generally be kept whole.

Typically yes, but New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth were split for either population reasons or my modified VRA (I allow for mixed majority-minority districts while the current VRA does not). A few other cities that split counties where split, but I tried my hardest to keep them together.

[Gass3268]

District 40: Grand River Watershed
Population: 3,223,713 (-2.74)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.18%-48.03%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +2.12%
Demographics: 76% White, 7% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Hispanic

Drawing Thought Process: The objective here was to create a Southern Michigan based district that did not go into the Detroit Metropolitan Area. At its core is the Grand Rapids Metropolitan Area, but I also had to add the metro areas of Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Monroe, Muskegon, and most of Lansing.

2022 Election: Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing, MI) vs Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake, MI)
Explanation: Democrats did very well in this district in the 2022 elections. Whitmer, Benson, and Nessel won this district by an average of 9.5 points. This would have been Debbie Stabenow's seat, but with her retirement it opens the seat up for Elissa Slotkin. She has already essentially cleared the field for the 2024 Senate race in Michigan, so you would have to think she’d be able to do the same here. Also, given her historical overperformance in her Congressional district I think she wins by a margin similar to the statewide Dems or more. I think the Republicans also put forward a credible candidate here given how close this seat is in general. Senate Majority Mike Shirkey, who was term limited, decides to jump in thinking the environment would be a good one for Republicans, only to lose by almost double digits.

[Gass3268]

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.

[Gass3268]

Please stop clogging the thread with drabble and massive quote chains some of us are trying to read here

It’s not an Atlas thread without those, though.

I'm fine with the quote chains, just delete the pictures in the quotes please.

[Gass3268]

It's Underwood/Sherrill in this project, but you can pretend it is whoever you want it to be. Like I said, all that really matters is what party holds the seat because at the end I'm going to count everything thing up and see how the current Senate breakdown would be.

One thing I'm proud of with how the map turned up is that the 50th seat is D+0 (Lower Chesapeake Bay) and the 51st seat (Driftless Area & Northwoods) is R+0. It was totally unintentional and I only realized it after I was totally done and was doing all the math.

I was just offering some suggestions based on some facts that I know. I mean I convinced you to go with Coons for the South Jersey seat when you originally went with Carper.

I'm fine with suggestions, I've used many by you and others. Please keep providing them. I'm just at a point were I'm cool with the decisions I've made and I want to move on.

[Gass3268]

District 41: Greater Detroit
Population: 3,456,739 (4.29%)
States: Michigan (100%)
Largest City: Detroit, Michigan
Cook PVI: D+10
Biden/Trump: 62.22%-36.52%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.75%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.39%
Demographics: 57% White, 5% Hispanic, 29% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea here was to include as much of the Detroit Metropolitan Area as possible as the entirety of the metro area is 32% over the population target. I started with Wayne County and then added as much of Macomb County and Oakland County as possible. For the two suburban counties I added the first three lines of cities and townships, with the exception of a few in east central Macomb for population purposes.

2022 Election: Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Heights, MI) vs Martell Bivings (R-Detroit, MI)
Explanation: This is incumbent Gary Peters’ district and I think he would easily be able to get through a primary and the general election. Given the PVI and the margin I do not think any major Republican would jump into this race.

[Gass3268]

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

[Gass3268]

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.

Michigan makes way too much of the % of this district for the eventual nominee to not come from there.

[Gass3268]

District 42: Northern Great Lakes Shorelines
Population: 3,477,871 (+4.93)
States: Michigan (88.71%), Minnesota (8.91%), and Wisconsin (2.38%)
Largest City: Duluth, Minnesota
Cook PVI: R+10
Biden/Trump: 41.69%-56.72%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.18%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +0.18%
Demographics: 85% White, 4% Hispanic, 6% Black, 1% Asian, 4% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The starting point for this district was the remainder of the State of Michigan. This included a large percentage of the Detroit Metropolitan Area, Flint, the Tri-Cities Area, Northern Michigan, and the Upper Peninsula. This still left the district about 5 to 10 points under the population target. To get this remaining population I decided to add the Lake Superior shoreline counties from Wisconsin and the Iron Range counties from Minnesota.

2022 Election: Bob Lorinser (D-Marquette, MI) vs Lisa McClain (R-Bruce, MI)
Explanation: As crazy as it sounds, given this is a R+10 seat that Trump won by 15 points, using an average of major statewide results, this district was essentially tied in 2022! That said, I imagine a Republican would win this district in a major Federal race such as this, but it would end up being much closer than it should have any right to be. Rep. Lisa McClain lives in this district and appears to be interested in running for Senate in 2024. Democrats are kicking themselves for not putting up a stronger candidate after Lorinser only loses by mid single digits.

I’d go with Pete Stauber for this one. McClain’s only a freshman and I can’t see her making the jump after one term. Stauber at least is a sophomore.

Michigan makes way too much of the % of this district for the eventual nominee to not come from there.

Why not John Moolenaar instead? He’s the dean of the delegation there.

I considered him, but as of right now he does not appear interested based on what I can tell. McClain is the only Michigan representative in this district that appears very interested in running, she also represents a lot of the vote rich exurban areas in the Detroit Metro.

[Gass3268]

District 43: Congaree Bottomland & Peach Country
Population: 3,189,541 (-3.77%)
States: Georgia (50.40%) and South Carolina (49.60%)
Largest City: Augusta, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+2
Biden/Trump: 50.11%-48.66%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +2.40%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +0.04%
Demographics: 50% White, 5% Hispanic, 41% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The idea with this district was to attempt to connect all the African American communities in the Georgia Black Belt and Central South Carolina. Unfortunately, given the current demographics in this region, it comes a little short. I considered drawing an arm into the Charleston Metropolitan Area to pick up Black voters there, but I decided against it as I don’t think it would get it over 50% VAP. I do still think this is still a solid district from a community of interest point of view as it connects similar sized metros in Columbia, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus. Also, just as an interesting observation, I’m pretty sure this is the district that is the closest to a pure 50-50 split between two states.

2022 Election: Stephen Benjamin (D-Colulmbia, SC) vs Drew Ferguson (R-West Point, GA)
Explanation: Given the results from 2020, I would expect this race to draw two solid candidates from both parties. For the Democrats, I decided to go with then Columbia, SC mayor Stephen Benjamin and for the Republicans, Rep. Drew Fergueson. Fergueson is considering a run for Governor in 2026, so he clearly has some desire for a promotion. Democrats did not do well in this region in the 2020 midterm elections. Using an average of elections in Georgia and the Governor’s race in South Carolina, the Republicans won here by around 4.5 points, a 6 point swing from Biden’s results in 2020. I would expect Ferguson to win here as well.

[Gass3268]

District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Rob Woodall (R-Dacula, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Congressman Rob Woodall decided he wanted back in after retiring in 2020 narrowly beat a MAGA backed election denier in the primary, before going on to a big win in the general election. He would however have to change his residence, as Lawrenceville is not in this district. I imagine he would move to a place like nearby Dacula.

[Gass3268]

District 44: Southern Ridge and Valley
Population: 3,204,442 (-3.32%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, Georgia
Cook PVI: R+14
Biden/Trump: 40.05%-58.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +9.56%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +7.20%
Demographics: 59% White, 14% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. This only provides about 83% of the population needed, so I also added a large portion of Northwest Georgia including the Dalton and Rome areas for an additional 423,455 people.

2022 Election: Bob Christian (D-Dawsonville, GA) vs Geoff Duncan (R-Cumming, GA)
Explanation: Today this district is Safe Republican, but it won’t be in the near future. That 9.5 point swing to the Democrats was the second largest pro-Democratic swing in the country. Given the rapid diversifying growth in this region, I do not see how a Democrat doesn’t win here by the end of the decade. However, right now any Republican who runs here would win. Even someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene who I considered. Former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan runs here and ends up winning a narrow primary race against a MAGA backed election denier, before going on to a big win in the general election

I can’t see Geoff Duncan run for Senate. He left the LG office because he was sick of Trump’s craziness and has little interest in ever running for office again. I’d go with Rob Woodall making a comeback here.

Thinking about it again, I agreed. I made the change.

[Gass3268]

District 45: Greater Atlanta
Population: 3,216,141 (-2.97%)
States: Georgia (100%)
Largest City: Atlanta, Georgia
Cook PVI: D+19
Biden/Trump: 71.38%-27.49%
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +6.20%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +3.84%
Demographics: 31% White, 11% Hispanic, 53% Black, 5% Asian, 2% Native
VRA Demographics: 34% White, 9% Hispanic, 51% Black, 5% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The goal here was to create a majority Black district located in the southern half of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area. All of the counties that are in the lower part of the metro area are included in addition to the bottom two thirds of Fulton County, the lower half of Cobb County, and an arm into Gwinnett County that grabs the most diverse precincts in that county.

2022 Election: Raphael Warnock (D-Decatur, GA) vs Christian Zimm (R-Atlanta, GA)
Explanation: Both Senator Warnock and Senator Ossoff live in this district, but it’s pretty obvious Senator Ossoff would step aside (maybe run for Governor in 2026?) and allow Senator Warnock to keep serving here. Warnock would then go on to win the general election in a landslide.