2020 Interstate Senate Redistricting
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Gass3268
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« on: February 08, 2023, 02:25:18 PM »
« edited: February 09, 2023, 10:03:47 AM by Gass3268 »

What if we elected our senators based on districts that could cross state lines? This is a project I've been working on since we've gotten the most recent 20202 census data. Each district is allowed to be +/-5% of target population of 3,314,493, which is the population of the 50 states plus DC divided by 100. I attempted to keep metro areas and counties together as much as possible, but I also took into account what I've imagined would be a modified VRA for this. I'll provide more backstory and details throughout the series. Some of it might venture into the What If/Alternative History side of things, but I still think this is the right area of the forum for this topic. I'll provide recent presidential election data for each district including a Cook PVI, demographic information, a brief recap into my thought process behind the makeup of the district, and a guess at its recent electoral history. I'll start in the Northeast and then move my way down south and out west.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2023, 12:22:58 AM »

Ran into a tiny bug that I had to fix tonight with the map. All good now and will be ready to start posting districts tomorrow.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2023, 10:03:04 AM »



District 1: Northeast New England
Population: 3,418,323 (+3.13%)
States: Maine (39.85%), Massachusetts (19.85%), and New Hampshire (40.30%)
Largest City: Manchester, New Hampshire
Cook PVI: D+2
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +6.54%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +4.02%
Demographics: 90% White, 2% Hispanic, 3% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: Starting with Maine and New Hampshire together was an obvious choice, where it got less obvious was where to get the necessary additional 20% for the district. I was originally going to add Vermont here, which would make this a Northern New England district. However it did not take long to realize just how bad this decision made the rest of the rest of the districts in New England and even into New York. As a result I decided to add the Merrimack Valley in Massachusetts.

2022 Election: Jeanne Shaheen (D-Madbury, NH) vs Susan Collins (R-Bangor, ME)
Explanation: For candidates I would assume that the two most senior members of the party in this district would win their respective parties' primaries, even though Collins could be vulnerable to a right wing challenge. Last year was a very good election cycle for Democrats in New England and I would expect the same here. I imagine both candidates would win their home states, but the Merrimack Valley being D+9 would give Shaheen the decisive edge.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2023, 10:44:35 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2023, 12:02:53 PM by Gass3268 »



District 2: Greater Boston
Population: 3,289,343 (-0.76%)
States: Massachusetts (100%)
Largest City: Boston, Massachusetts
Cook PVI: D+20
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +6.38%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +4.02%
Demographics: 63% White, 12% Hispanic, 13% Black, 11% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This was a pretty straight forward district to draw as the objective here was to include as much of the Boston NECTA (New England City and Town Area) as possible, while including other NECTAs as needed to fill out the district.

2022 Election: Edward Markey (D-Malden, MA) vs Robert Burke (R-Milton, MA)
Explanation: The real race here is clearly the Democratic primary and Iím guessing there would be a very contentious battle fought between Markey and Elizabeth Warren. A gut feeling, but based on some of Warrenís underperformances in past elections, I think Markey wins and then blows out the challenger in the general election.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2023, 12:30:49 PM »



District 3: Southeast New England
Population: 3,406,268 (+2.77%)
States: Connecticut (10.66%), Massachusetts (57.12%) and Rhode Island (32.22%)
Largest City: Providence, Rhode Island
Cook PVI: D+7
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +6.50%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +4.14%
Demographics: 73% White, 12% Hispanic, 7% Black, 5% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The core of the district was built around Southeast Massachusetts and the State of Rhode Island. At that point, the district needed about an additional 40% of its population to get to the target. The Worcester NECTA made sense to add here and then I filled out the rest with the Eastern Connecticut up to the Hartford and New Haven NECTAs.

2022 Election: Jack Reed (D-Cranston, RI) vs Jesse Brown (R-Plymouth, MA)
Explanation: Even though almost 60% of this district is Massachusetts, in reality it is split between the Southeast portion and the Worcester NECTA portion. As a result I think the incumbents from Rhode Island would have the best chances to come out of a Democratic primary and with seniority I think it ends up being Jack Reed. He would sail on to victory in the general. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2023, 01:42:08 PM »



District 4: Lower Connecticut River Valley
Population: 3,171,673 (-4.31%)
States: Connecticut (68.88%) and Massachusstes (31.12%)
Largest City: Springfield, Massachusetts
Cook PVI: D+8
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +5.36%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +3.00%
Demographics: 65% White, 17% Hispanic, 12% Black, 5% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process:The idea here was to combine the Hartford, New Haven, and Springfield NECTAs going up the Connecticut River. It was then filled out with the remainder of Massachusstes to the north and east.

2022 Election: Chris Murphy (Cheshire, CT) vs Todd Smola (R-Warren, MA)
Explanation: Chris Murphy is the only incumbent senator that lives in this district. Also, Connecticut makes up over two thirds of this district, so itís unlikely a Democratic from Massachusstes would be able to challenge him. Finally, Biden got over 60% of the vote here in 2020 so I see no issues for Senator Murhphy
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2023, 08:49:31 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2023, 01:08:27 PM by Gass3268 »



District 5: Adirondacks & Lake Champlain
Population: 3,190,043 (-3.75)
States: Massachusetts (4.05%), New York (75.79%) and Vermont (20.16%)
Largest City: Albany, New York
Cook PVI: D+2
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +6.32%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +3.96%
Demographics: 83% White, 5% Hispanic, 6% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The origin of this district started with the remainder of New England north of the New York City Combined Statistical Area (Massachusstes and Vermont). This meant that the vast majority of the district would have to come from Upstate New York. This includes the Albany-Schenectady, Binghamton, Utica-Rome, and Watertown Metropolication Areas.

2022 Election: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Troy, NY) vs Claudia Tenney (R-Utica, NY)
Explanation: The Democratic primary in this race would be brutal as I imagine both Gillibrand and Bernie Sanders would want to remain in the Senate. Even though Sanders is an Independent, I canít imagine heíd run a third party campaign and allow someone like Tenny to win. The general election would be closer than the 2020 Presidential numbers, as Democrats lost the New York portion of this district by ~10.5 points (93,270 votes). However the New England portions and their massive Democratic margins would bail out Gillibrand and give her a narrow win of ~3.5 points.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2023, 09:30:16 PM »

I can delete my comment if you don't want to have interruptions in the thread, but this is really cool. Always wanted to try something like this.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2023, 09:51:57 PM »

I like this so far. Do you have a link to your national map?

Ig my only suggestion would be the Adirondacks district seems quite disjointed, but it's still fine and I understand why OP made the choices he did with VT and such.
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2023, 10:05:37 PM »

How are you drawing these maps that span states?
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2023, 01:39:19 AM »

Cool thread!
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patzer
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2023, 08:12:24 AM »

Explanation: Even though almost 60% of this district is Massachusetts, in reality it is split between the Southeast portion and the Worcester NECTA portion. As a result I think the incumbents from Rhode Island would have the best chances to come out of a Democratic primary and with seniority I think it ends up being Jack Reed. He would sail on to victory in the general. 

Why wouldn't Elizabeth Warren go for this seat? She's incumbent too.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2023, 01:46:48 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2023, 02:23:05 PM by Gass3268 »

I can delete my comment if you don't want to have interruptions in the thread, but this is really cool. Always wanted to try something like this.

No worries on the comment, thanks!

I like this so far. Do you have a link to your national map?

Ig my only suggestion would be the Adirondacks district seems quite disjointed, but it's still fine and I understand why OP made the choices he did with VT and such.

I want to hold off showing the national map until the end in order to not spoil anything. I agree that the Adirondacks district is a bit off, but there are a lot of historical ties between Upstate New York and Vermont that I think allows this to work.

How are you drawing these maps that span states?

I went state by state in Daves Redistricting App with a Google Sheets document and just started putting things together. I had to make sure I kept track of the population targets and that I didn't have too many districts that were either too big or too small. In terms of visualizing it in DRA, once I was all done with every state, DRA has a functionality that allows you to upload other maps as a custom overlay (look at the bottom of left side menu). All I had to do was make sure the districts that crossed state lines had matching colors.


Thanks!


Why wouldn't Elizabeth Warren go for this seat? She's incumbent too.

I should have added that there would be a rule that you have to be a resident of the district you run in, similar to how you have to be a resident of the state to run for the Senate. Warren currently lives in Cambridge in the Greater Boston district. She could obviously move, but I think she'd be labeled as a carpetbagger.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2023, 05:14:24 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2023, 05:45:37 PM by Gass3268 »



District 6: Lower Hudson River Valley
Population: 3,456,527 (+4.29%)
States: Connecticut (30.62%) and New York (69.38%)
Largest City: Yonkers, New York
Cook PVI: D+7
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.88%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem + 2.52%
Demographics: 59% White, 21% Hispanic, 13% Black, 6% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: I wanted this to be the Metro North district and I thought it worked out perfectly. This includes the seven counties north of New York City plus the remainder of what was left in Connecticut.

2022 Election: Richard Blumenthal (D-Greenwich, CT) vs Leora Levy (R-Greenwich, CT)
Explanation: The Democratic average on the New York side of this district saw about a ten point swing to the Republicans in 2022 compared to 2020, but they still ended up winning by ~7.5 points. In addition the Connecticut side of this district only saw minimal dropoff in support for Democrats in both the Senate and Governorís races. I would still imagine a double digit win here for Senator Blumenthal.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2023, 05:45:16 PM »



District 7: Long Island
Population: 3,362,052 (+1.43%)
States: New York (100%)
Largest City: Town of Hempstead, New York (Yes, Iím including towns. It makes things easier in the Northeast)
Cook PVI: D+0
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +4.23%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.87%
Demographics: 55% White, 20% Hispanic, 10% Black, 15% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This was a pretty straight forward district as it was obvious that Long Island should have its own district. The only question was where to grab the the necessary additional 13%. I decided to go with Northeast Queens. Particularly centered around the Flushing neighborhood.

2022 Election: Thomas Suozzi (D-Glen Cove, NY) vs Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley, NY)
Explanation: Pretty famously 2022 was a disaster for Democrats on Long Island and would be the same here. Even though Biden won this district by a little over 6 points in 2020, I would expect the Republican candidate to pull out a solid win. Maybe Rep. Suozzi, who runs here instead of a failed primary attempt at Governor, does a little bit better than the double digit losses that Hocul/Schumer had. Also, I think Zeldin would see the opportunity to actually win here and make the choice to run for this seat instead of going for Governor.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2023, 10:23:59 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2023, 11:49:49 AM by Gass3268 »



District 8: Southern New York City
Population: 3,221,652 (-2.80%)
States: New Jersey (23.17%) and New York (76.83%)
Largest City: South Brooklyn, New York
Cook PVI: D+31
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +6.39
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +8.75
Demographics: 19% White, 23% Hispanic, 48% Black, 11% Asian, 2% Native
VRA Demographics: 20% White, 22% Hispanic, 48% Black, 11% Asian, 2% Native

Drawing Thought Process: When drawing the districts in New York City my first objective was to create one that would center in the predominantly African American neighborhoods in South Brooklyn and South Queens. After I determined which neighborhoods I wanted to include here, it became clear that I was going to need an additional 40% of the districtís population. I decided to go into New Jersey and grab its African American population there. I did this by creating a bridge to the Newark, New Jersey area by adding the Coney Island area over to Fort Hamilton in Brooklyn, before crossing the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge to add the diverse northern portions of Staten Island, and then crossing into New Jersey. What you end up with is a district that is almost majority black.

2022 Election: Corey Booker (D-Newark, NJ) vs Yuri Dashevsky (R-Brooklyn, NY)
Explanation: Senator Booker is the only incumbent that lives in this district and then though New Jersey only makes up a little less than 25% of this district, I think he would get the nod here. I think he would amass massive margins in a primary on the New Jersey side and itís probable that multiple candidates would run on the New York side, diluting any one candidateís support on that side of the Hudson. Booker would win the general election in a landslide.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2023, 11:22:17 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2023, 11:29:11 AM by Gass3268 »



District 9: Northern New York City
Population: 3,440,332 (+3.80%)
States: New Jersey (8.49%) and New York City (91.51%)
Largest City: Bronx, New York
Cook PVI: D+31
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +11.26%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +13.62%
Demographics: 17% White, 49% Hispanic, 26% Black, 13% Asian, 3% Native
VRA Demographics: 19% White, 47% Hispanic, 26% Black, 13% Asian, 3% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The objective of this district was to create a predominantly Hispanic district centered in the Bronx and Harlem. The district also crosses into Queens and Brooklyn to pick up Hispanic neighborhoods there as well. At this point a little bit of New Jersey was needed to fill out the district, so I went with a strip from Fort Lee to Union City.

2022 Election: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx, NY) vs Marcos Arroyo (R-West New York, NJ)
Explanation: This was a tough call as to who I could see winning here. Senator Menendez lives in Union City, NJ and would get the support of the New Jersey machine and probably the support of a chunk of the Democratic Party establishment. On the other side, I think there would be a lot of anger from the progressive side of the Democratic and even from some of the rank and file in New York. I could totally see someone like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez running against Menendez. Itís a really tough call and Iíve gone back and forth here, but I think AOC knocks off another incumbent here. Menendez has way too many corruption allegations swirling around him, which Ocasio-Cortez would continually attack him on, and he has to deal with the fact that over 90% of this district is in New York.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2023, 11:44:00 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2023, 11:49:37 AM by Gass3268 »



District 10: Central New York City
Population: 3,201,585 (-3.41%)
States: New Jersey (23.94%) and New York (76.06%)
Largest City: North Brooklyn, New York
Cook PVI: D+26
2016->2020 Swing: Rep +5.48%
2016->2020 Trend: Rep +7.84%
Demographics: 51% White, 19% Hispanic, 9% Black, 11% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: This district is essentially the leftovers of New York City as I drew the prior two districts first. This constituted about three fourths of what was needed for the district, so I went into New Jersey again to get the remaining quarter. This ends up being the white district for the New York City area.

2022 Election: Charles Schumer (D-Brooklyn, NY) vs. Michael Zumbluskas (D-Manhattan, NY)
Explanation: No debate here, this would be the district for the current Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. There is a base for a potential primary for him as the stretch from Astoria, Queens down to Park Slope, Brooklyn is the heart of the progressive base in New York City. However, Schumer would dominate in a primary in the more Jewish areas around Borough Park, Manhattan, and on the New Jersey side.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2023, 12:10:26 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2023, 12:14:25 PM by Gass3268 »



District 11: Jersey Shore
Population: 3,474,536 (+4.83%)
States: New Jersey (91.21%) and New York (8.79%)
Largest City: Lakewood Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: R+1
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.57%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.21%
Demographics: 59% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 14% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The thought process here was to take as much of the southernmost portion of the New York Combined Statistical area. This included grabbing the Trenton-Princeton area as it is generally more connected to the New York area than the Philadelphia area. I also felt that it made sense to add the southern portions of Staten Island to this district.

2022 Election: Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch, NJ) vs Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield, NJ)
Explanation: After a close defeat for the House in 2020, Tom Kean, Jr. decided to give it a go for this new Senate district in 2022. He dominates the northern portion during the primary and goes on to a solid win in the general thanks to the Republican strength in the New York suburbs during the last election. Frank Pallone Jr. picks the wrong time to make another stab at a Senate run.
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« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2023, 12:48:07 PM »

Excellent work so far.

Two things:
1. Can you please the Biden/Trump numbers where possible? TBH that would probably be more helpful than just a PVI estimate. 

2. Would it be possible to post the DRA link when the project is done?
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« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2023, 12:50:46 PM »


Nice typo Kiki
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« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2023, 12:51:26 PM »



District 11: Jersey Shore
Population: 3,474,536 (+4.83%)
States: New Jersey (91.21%) and New York (8.79%)
Largest City: Lakewood Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: R+1
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.57%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.21%
Demographics: 59% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 14% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The thought process here was to take as much of the southernmost portion of the New York Combined Statistical area. This included grabbing the Trenton-Princeton area as it is generally more connected to the New York area than the Philadelphia area. I also felt that it made sense to add the southern portions of Staten Island to this district.

2022 Election: Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch, NJ) vs Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield, NJ)
Explanation: After a close defeat for the House in 2020, Tom Kean, Jr. decided to give it a go for this new Senate district in 2022. He dominates the northern portion during the primary and goes on to a solid win in the general thanks to the Republican strength in the New York suburbs during the last election. Frank Pallone Jr. picks the wrong time to make another stab at a Senate run.

Iíd think Kean runs for house again, heíd probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.
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« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2023, 03:06:19 PM »



District 11: Jersey Shore
Population: 3,474,536 (+4.83%)
States: New Jersey (91.21%) and New York (8.79%)
Largest City: Lakewood Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: R+1
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.57%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.21%
Demographics: 59% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 14% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The thought process here was to take as much of the southernmost portion of the New York Combined Statistical area. This included grabbing the Trenton-Princeton area as it is generally more connected to the New York area than the Philadelphia area. I also felt that it made sense to add the southern portions of Staten Island to this district.

2022 Election: Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch, NJ) vs Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield, NJ)
Explanation: After a close defeat for the House in 2020, Tom Kean, Jr. decided to give it a go for this new Senate district in 2022. He dominates the northern portion during the primary and goes on to a solid win in the general thanks to the Republican strength in the New York suburbs during the last election. Frank Pallone Jr. picks the wrong time to make another stab at a Senate run.

I'm surprised a district that has all of Edison, Iselin, South Brunswick, Plainsboro and Montgomery is only 14% Asian.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2023, 07:30:11 PM »

Excellent work so far.

Two things:
1. Can you please the Biden/Trump numbers where possible? TBH that would probably be more helpful than just a PVI estimate. 

2. Would it be possible to post the DRA link when the project is done?

I'll add the Biden/Trump numbers in a post here and then add them to future entries. Yeah, I'll make sure do do that.


Thank you! Made the edit.


Iíd think Kean runs for house again, heíd probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?



District 11: Jersey Shore
Population: 3,474,536 (+4.83%)
States: New Jersey (91.21%) and New York (8.79%)
Largest City: Lakewood Township, New Jersey
Cook PVI: R+1
2016->2020 Swing: Dem +3.57%
2016->2020 Trend: Dem +1.21%
Demographics: 59% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 14% Asian, 1% Native

Drawing Thought Process: The thought process here was to take as much of the southernmost portion of the New York Combined Statistical area. This included grabbing the Trenton-Princeton area as it is generally more connected to the New York area than the Philadelphia area. I also felt that it made sense to add the southern portions of Staten Island to this district.

2022 Election: Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch, NJ) vs Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield, NJ)
Explanation: After a close defeat for the House in 2020, Tom Kean, Jr. decided to give it a go for this new Senate district in 2022. He dominates the northern portion during the primary and goes on to a solid win in the general thanks to the Republican strength in the New York suburbs during the last election. Frank Pallone Jr. picks the wrong time to make another stab at a Senate run.

I'm surprised a district that has all of Edison, Iselin, South Brunswick, Plainsboro and Montgomery is only 14% Asian.

Not a lot of Asian Americans in Monmouth (6.3%) and Ocean (2.4%) Counties.
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« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2023, 07:41:47 PM »



Iíd think Kean runs for house again, heíd probably still have an easier time beating Malinowski than winning that Senate seat.

Who do you think would run in this Senate seat?

I honestly donít know. It wouldnít be Chris Smith because he seems content in his safe house seat. Ciattarelli seems like heís eyeing governor again in 2025. Guadagno left the GOP a year or two ago. Malliotakis may consider it because of the Hochulmander, and itís probably too late for her to drop back down after itís overturned in April. But sheíll have a hard time winning outside of NJ.

I imagine the nominee will be someone from Monmouth or Ocean. Theyíd have a big advantage in any primary because Republican voters are mostly packed there.  Maybe Tom MacArthur would make his comeback here?
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