Political Future of Emilia Sykes

[MargieCat]

Does she lose her seat to gerrymandering?

Is she a one term wonder or does she hang go down in a red wave?

[TwinGeeks99]

It really all depends on how redistricting goes in either this cycle or the next one. The best case scenario for her is if the deal Ohio Democrats struck with the moderate Rs to elect one of their own as speaker included an incumbent protection map, which would probably draw Summit County up with Democratic areas in Cuyahoga to the north.

[Vosem]

Probably the best case for her in redistricting is just status quo, with the 2022 maps being used in 2024. (It is true on some level that Sykes is well-connected in Columbus, and 10 years ago it might've been conceivable that Sykes would've gotten a safe seat in exchange for Democratic concessions in Cincinnati, but I doubt we'll see that in 2022).

Her seat is not really all that Democratic (Biden+3, Clinton+2), but it's somewhat more Democratic than that down-ballot. Under current boundaries she has to watch out for a strong Republican year or an unforced error, but she'd be favored in a neutral cycle. Over the longer-term the area is trending red, but not really that fast.

The elephant (har) in the room is that it is very easy to redraw her seat as safely double-digit red, all the Republican suggestion maps in 2021-2022 did this, and from a mapmaking perspective the easiest place to make a concession to Democrats is Cincinnati, not Akron. Based on ratings from Cook and reporting from the Columbus Dispatch, an agreement between Republicans and Democrats probably applied only to Ohio House maps, so Sykes probably goes in that case.

I guess she goes back to the legislature? Some member of the Sykes family has been representing Akron in some legislature since 1982.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

In states like OH, IN, etc. it might just be better for the most ambitious Democrats to hope for a federal appointment a la Pete Buttigieg.