A voting history of Scarsdale NY

[King of Kensington]

Incomplete and a bit patchy voting history of this famous wealthy suburb with a large Jewish population.  My sources include Kevin Phillips, The Emerging Republican Majority and Carol O'Connor, A  Sort of Utopia.

1960  Nixon 64%
1964  Johnson 65%, Goldwater 35%
1968  Humphrey 55%, Nixon 45% (two-party vote)
1972  Nixon 51%, McGovern 49% (two-party vote)
1976  Ford 50.5%, Carter 49.5%
1980  Reagan 51%, Carter 34%, Anderson 14%
....
2020  Biden 79%; Trump 20%


Not sure if Mondale or Dukakis carried Scarsdale; my feeling is they did.  Certainly it's been D since 1992.

IIRC Romney got about 40% of the vote in Scarsdale, so obviously the shift to Trumpism did not play well in Scarsdale.

[Tintrlvr]

Scarsdale didn't have nearly as large a Jewish population back in the 60s, for what it's worth, although there were tensions about the Jewish population growing. My mother grew up there in the 60s and recalls that Jews were not allowed into the Scarsdale Golf Club when her family were members (not just not allowed to be members - actually not allowed entrance even as a guest).

[King of Kensington]

Scarsdale probably became plurality-Jewish in the 1960s.  According to O'Connor:

In 1940, about 69 percent of Scarsdale's families could be classified as white, Anglo-Saxon Protestants; 16 percent were Roman Catholic in affiliation or background, and 15 percent were ethnically Jewish.  Twenty years, the percentage of WASPs had declined to 42, the percentage of Jews had risen to 35, and the percentage of people from Catholic groups had increased to 23.  In 1980, Jews comprised the largest ethnic group in the community, constituting roughly 50 percent of families.  Protestants counted for 24 percent of the total, Catholics 21 percent.

Since then the Asian population has increased significantly, and the Jewish population has likely levelled off and dispersed.  Scarsdale is probably around 40% Jewish now, and the once very WASPy Westchester communities (Larchmont, Rye) have significant Jewish populations.

[King of Kensington]

Biden won every town in Westchester.  It's the Italian vote that stands out. Eastchester and Harrison were closer (around 55-45 D). 

The elite towns without an ethnic character (i.e. Rye, Pound Ridge) were around 70-30 D. 

The WASP-Jewish difference has diminished, particularly in the Trump era.  In the 1980s and 1990s, Jews in Larchmont, say, probably voted quite differently from their non-Jewish neighbors.  Nowadays, there's probably no meaningful difference.

[Gracile]

Scarsdale was Democratic-leaning a bit before 1992, at least. The more liberal Jewish community was a major support base for Nita Lowey in her successful US House campaign in 1988 (she won by flipping the NY-20 district 50-48 while George HW Bush carried her district 51-48) compared to more conservative towns at the time like Eastchester, Pelham, and Rye. NY-20 was also fairly competitive during the 1980s, so it's possible either Mondale or, more likely, Dukakis won Scarsdale at the presidential level.

[King of Kensington]

From Politics in America (1983), describing then NY-20

Westchester's politics are determined at least as much by liberal Jewish suburbanites and more conservative middle class Italian neighborhoods as by Wasp enclaves.  Republicans have a small registration advantage in the redrawn 20th district, enhanced by the addition of GOP towns such as Eastchester and Mount Vernon...Jewish voters diluted the Republican sentiment in wealthy Scarsdale...Republicans have their bastions in Larchmont, Pelham and New Castle.  Map makers further bolstered GOP strength by adding several similar suburban enclaves such as Bronxville and Briarcliff Manor.

[jaichind]

Some thoughts from me.  First, there are many definitions of Scarsdale.  There is the town of Scarsdale but around here we tend to think in terms of Greater Scarsdale since many locations outside of Scarsdale have the Scarsdale zip code.    I think of Greater Scarsdale social circle primarily as Scarsdale, Northern Eastchesters, Hardsale, and Edgemont.    All the people in this circle use the Scardale or Hartsdale train Metro North train station.

The Italian vs Jewish distinctions is very accurate.  Scarsdale is the Jewish Bronxville just like Bronxville is the non-Jewish Scarsdale.  Back in the 1930s, Bronxville was the elite town of Southern Westchester and they were not that welcoming of Jews.  So many upper-middle-class Jews migrated to Scarsdale instead. 

The Jews voting Dem and Italians voting GOP is also correlated with, people that work in knowledge-intensive industries voting Dem while those that do not vote GOP as well as those with higher income vote Dem and those with lower income vote GOP.   When there are non-partisan elections and I am too lazy to look up their positions I always vote for the candidate with the Italian last name with 99% certainty that said candidate is the de facto GOP candidate.

Over the last couple of decades, there has been a surge of Orientals (like myself) and those of East European descent.  The Orientals do not vote (the Chinese are non-political and the Japanese are expatriates and cannot vote anyway.)  Those who are of East European descent tend to be the swing voters which surged toward GOP in 2016 but went back to Dems in 2020.

[jaichind]

National politics play a very small role in Scarsdale politics.  There are very few yards signs during Prez elections and many more yard signs for local elections. 

The pro-GOP vote is mostly motivated by what sort of stuff goes in in schools, namely what is being taught and other school policies.  I wrote about this a while ago.

We just had school board elections in Westchester County last week.  In terms of the number of yard signs, this had to be the most polarizing election I have seen in Westchester County since I moved there in 2007 including and especially Prez elections.

What took place was due to frustration over remote learning, extended school mask mandates, and post-George Floyd diversity and inclusion curriculums provoked a bunch of right-wing insurgent slates that challenged the incumbent slates.  In most towns, they were beaten back with a high turnout but in a few towns, the insurgent slates won and in a bunch of others they came close.  The best way to figure out how the insurgent slates did is to ask the question "what % of the town are Whites that do not work in a knowledge-intensive industry?"  The larger that number the larger the vote share of the insurgent slates.  I am sure after this insurgent surge the school board will think twice about going too far on issues of future lockdowns or masking mandates or woke school curriculum.

Last few weeks by jogging and driving around a 2-3 mile radius of my home I learned more about the political alignments of people in my area than in the entire 15 years I lived here.  Where I live I am pretty much the only person that will openly support Trump but I know people who are non-political but I suspect are crypo-Trump supporters.  Seeing some of their yard signs on school board elections I was able to validate my crypto-Trump supporter theory in several cases.

Anyway, we see that in Westchester County people do not seem to care about national politics but can get really worked up over school issues if provoked.

The pro-Dem vote is mostly motivated by the latest Left-Liberal national fad with a half life of around 4-5 months.  Back in mid 2020 there were a lot of BLM and "I believe in Science" signs most of which had disappeared by mid 2021.  Earlier this year there were a lot of "I stand with Ukraine" signs most of which disappeared by Thanksgiving.

Of course where the pro-GOP and pro-Dem vote do agree on is the issue of multi-member housing.  The mindset of the pro-Dem vote is similar to Stephan Curry: "Diversity is our greatest strength" as long as "that diversity is living way over there and away from our children."  And just to make sure "that great strength of course called diversity" stays far away the bus system is on purpose poor and expensive so "that diversity" can be "diverse" far away.  This can only take place with an alliance between the pro-GOP and pro-Dem voters which is exactly what is taking place.

[King of Kensington]

Bronxville has few Jews even today and it is probably about as "WASP" as Westchester gets.  And even it went around 70% Biden.  It's thanks to Bronxville that Biden won the Town of Eastchester.

[King of Kensington]

And here's the voting history of Bronxville.  It voted D three times in its history: 2008, 2016, 2020.


https://www.myhometownbronxville.com/index.php/government/6717-how-bronxville-voted-in-the-2020-presidential-election

[Tekken_Guy]

Scarsdale is basically the Millburn of New York State.

[King of Kensington]

Scarsdale and Great Neck were often mentioned as comparable affluent liberal Jewish suburbs.  But they've really diverged since 1980 as Great Neck has become more Persian and Orthodox.

[jaichind]

The youth of this region is increasingly Left wing, especially in higher-income areas.  I do alumni interviews every year for Yale U in this area for at least 10 years now.  Starting around 2019 more and more candidates I interviewed (many of which were quite impressive from an academic point of view) have radical Left activities including a few that joined organizations that are dedicated to "overthrowing capitalism."  This is mostly from schools that mapped the high-income parts of the region so it is almost certain that their parents are in finance law or business.  Of course, during the interview, I was thinking "you can start overthrowing capitalism by moving out of your parents' $3 million house."   It would not surprise me at all that for them this is just a phase and after college, they will also move into finance law or business just like their parents and eventually own their own $3 million home with "overthrowing capitalism" a vague and distant goal.

The children of those not in knowledge-intensive industries (the GOP base) are mostly not political and most would not apply to places like Yale anyway.

[King of Kensington]

Westchester 1988 map:

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1603992402850725888/photo/1

Scarsdale noticeably more D, all the other elite areas are R. Jewish vote was more distinctive then.

[Tintrlvr]

Westchester 1988 map:

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1603992402850725888/photo/1

Scarsdale noticeably more D, all the other elite areas are R. Jewish vote was more distinctive then.

It's most striking that the least wealthy parts of Scarsdale (in the southwest, especially east of Rte 22) voted solid R, and the wealthiest parts (in the far north*) voted solid D. Very unusual pattern for the 1980s.

*Well, there are wealthier parts of Scarsdale, such as along Heathcote Road, but those pockets aren't large enough to dominate a precinct on the map.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like SW Scarsdale is less Jewish.  Russian and Eastern European ancestry less common in the SW census tract:

https://statisticalatlas.com/place/New-York/Scarsdale/Ancestry

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good thread.

[King of Kensington]

Larchmont has some blue as well in 1988 - I believe there's a lot of people in the arts, media, publishing etc. there.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

From Politics in America (1983), describing then NY-20

Westchester's politics are determined at least as much by liberal Jewish suburbanites and more conservative middle class Italian neighborhoods as by Wasp enclaves.  Republicans have a small registration advantage in the redrawn 20th district, enhanced by the addition of GOP towns such as Eastchester and Mount Vernon...Jewish voters diluted the Republican sentiment in wealthy Scarsdale...Republicans have their bastions in Larchmont, Pelham and New Castle.  Map makers further bolstered GOP strength by adding several similar suburban enclaves such as Bronxville and Briarcliff Manor.

Interesting that Mount Vernon was Republican leaning at the time. It must have been far whiter then because today it's majority non-white and very Democratic.

[jaichind]

Interesting that Mount Vernon was Republican leaning at the time. It must have been far whiter then because today it's majority non-white and very Democratic.

Mount Vernon has stagnated economically since the 1960s and had seen vast demographic change.  There is a big difference between North Mount Vernon and South Mount Vernon which is separated by Cross Country Parkway.  North Mount Vernon still has vestiges of what it was like before the 1970s.  South Mount Vernon is completely different and is really an extension of Bronx.

[King of Kensington]

2020 vote:

Scarsdale  79-20 D
Bronxville  70-30 D
Pound Ridge  70-29 D
Rye  68-31 D

[jaichind]

Southern Westchester cultural ecosystems are centered around the 3 Metro North lines.  There is a line on the Hudson, a line in the middle and a line on the East coast that goes out to CT. As a result there are 3 separate ecosystems all based on the North-South axis since East-West communications systems are poor.

Greater Scarsdale is part of the middle (or Harlem line) ecosystem.   As mentioned before Mount Vernon is really not part of this even though on paper it is part of Westchester as it is really part of the Bronx ecosystem.  One clear way to look at this is the ethnic makeup of high schools from North to South on the middle ecosystem

                       White    Black      Asian     Hispanic
Edgemont           49         2           35            8
Scarsdale            67         2          18             8
Eastchester         73         2            9           12
Tuckahoe            61        11           4            19
Bronxville           79          1            8            6
Mount Vernon       3        75            1           20

Note that almost all Whites (mostly Italian) that live in Northern Mount Vernon send their kids to a private Catholic school.

Edgemont is in theory part of the town of  Greenburgh  but is really part of the Scarsdale ecosystem.     Edgemont was a clone of core Scarsdale when I moved here in 2007 but there has been a massive surge of Chinese since then and the school numbers shows.  In Scarsdale and Northern Eastchester the Asians tend to be more Japanese expatriates.  During elementary school my son's classes were 1/4 Japanese and if you add in the Chinese (including my son) the Orientals often come close to forming a majority in some of the classes.  My son actually goes to Edgemont HS on the weekend for Chinese school.  Not a surprise that the weekend Chinese school in his region is in Edgemont  HS given the surge of the Chinese in that region.

Due to the clear wealth of Edgemont  there has been a movement toward Edgemont  declaring independence from  Greenburgh just to make sure their money is not be spent on the rest of Greenburgh.  My son's former piano teacher that lives in Edgemont  is very much against this but a bunch of friends from work that lives in Edgemont  are for.    As of now this movement has not succeeded yet.

Eastchester is really a combo of Northern Eastchester which is very much like Scarsdale and Southern Eastchester which is much more Italian.  Tuckahoe is like Southern Eastchester but with lower housing prices which made it possible for some middle class Blacks to move in.

My experience with Hispanics in this ecosystem is that they are indistinguishable from non-Hispanic Whites and you cannot even figure out who they are unless you look at their last names.

But the stark contrast between Mount Vernon and the rest of South Central Westchester is clear.  Even though the sports  leagues are separate all them do their best to get their teams to play against each other if possible.  As a result I have driven my son to soccer matches in all those high schools a bunch of times with the exception of Mount Vernon of course which is excluded from this South Central Westchester ecosystem.

[Death of a Salesman]

And here's the voting history of Bronxville.  It voted D three times in its history: 2008, 2016, 2020.


https://www.myhometownbronxville.com/index.php/government/6717-how-bronxville-voted-in-the-2020-presidential-election

It's notable that the high-water mark for the GOP was 1948, and that Eisenhower, despite a far better performance nationwide, actually slipped slightly from Dewey's total (to be fair, he dropped down to 90.16%, but still).
This isn't particularly surprising, since the 1948 election was the zenith of class polarisation in American politics. Harding managed 64% of the 2 party vote and 83% in Bronxville, and Charles Hughes probably struggled to clear 70% in the town. Yet Roosevelt hardly advanced on Al Smith's total from 1928-1936, and dropped distinctly below him during the war. It took until LBJ for a Democrat to surpass Smith by more than a few points, and even as late as 1976, Democrats were still running below Smith in close elections. We only really see #trends in earnest when the Cold War ends.

[Continential]

Edgemont is in theory part of the town of  Greenburgh  but is really part of the Scarsdale ecosystem.     Edgemont was a clone of core Scarsdale when I moved here in 2007 but there has been a massive surge of Chinese since then and the school numbers shows.  In Scarsdale and Northern Eastchester the Asians tend to be more Japanese expatriates.  During elementary school my son's classes were 1/4 Japanese and if you add in the Chinese (including my son) the Orientals often come close to forming a majority in some of the classes.  My son actually goes to Edgemont HS on the weekend for Chinese school.  Not a surprise that the weekend Chinese school in his region is in Edgemont HS given the surge of the Chinese in that region.

Out of curiosity - where do Indians/South Asians live in Westchester?

[jaichind]

Edgemont is in theory part of the town of  Greenburgh  but is really part of the Scarsdale ecosystem.     Edgemont was a clone of core Scarsdale when I moved here in 2007 but there has been a massive surge of Chinese since then and the school numbers shows.  In Scarsdale and Northern Eastchester the Asians tend to be more Japanese expatriates.  During elementary school my son's classes were 1/4 Japanese and if you add in the Chinese (including my son) the Orientals often come close to forming a majority in some of the classes.  My son actually goes to Edgemont HS on the weekend for Chinese school.  Not a surprise that the weekend Chinese school in his region is in Edgemont HS given the surge of the Chinese in that region.

Out of curiosity - where do Indians/South Asians live in Westchester?

There are not many of them and they tend to be scattered around the county.  You can get a sense of the concentration and size by the scale of the Indian grocery stores vs the Chinese/Oriental grocery stores.  The former and few and small in scale the later many and large in scale.

South Asians in the greater NYC area tend to concentrate in NJ where you can see a large number of Indian grocery store and many very large scale.