What makes the Lehigh Valley (PA) a swing region?

[progressive85]

Anyone here who knows about PA politics that could explain that some more?  I know that it's been a swing region for a while (I'd argue it's the most important region in the state for statewide and federal races).

For those of you that aren't familiar, the LV area includes the cities of Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton, and the suburbs and towns that surround it.

This would be Susan Wild's Congressional district (Charlie Dent's old district).

Presidential results for Lehigh County:
2020: Biden 53.1% - 45.5%
2016: Clinton 50.0% - 45.3%
2012: Obama 53.2% - 45.4%
2008: Obama 57.1% - 41.6%
2004: Kerry 51.0% - 48.4%
2000: Gore 48.7% - 47.7%

for Northampton County:
2020: Biden 49.6% - 48.9%
2016: Trump 49.6% - 45.8%
2012: Obama 51.6% - 46.9%
2008: Obama 55.4% - 43.1%
2004: Kerry 50.0% - 49.0%
2000: Gore 50.7% - 45.3%

U.S. Senate results for Lehigh County
2022: Fetterman 53.6% - 43.4%
2018: Casey 57.3% - 40.9%
2016: McGinty 48.2% - 47.6%
2012: Casey 55.1% - 43.0%
2010: Toomey 52.6% - 47.4%
2006: Casey 57.7% - 42.3%
2004: Specter 53.4% - 42.4%
2000: Santorum 57.2% - 41.0%

[mileslunn]

Probably just overall demographics.  Sort of average in population density as not really rural but not a large metro area other.  It is more working class and lower with college degree but ethnic make up somewhat like US.  Smaller African-American population but large Latino community.  I have found size of community tends to be biggest driver nowadays although wasn't always and it is pretty close to average on a population weighted basis with about half of Americans living in metro areas that are larger and half in smaller or rural.

[kwabbit]

Interesting that Northampton swung 4 pts to the right 2000-2004 while Lehigh swung left. Education polarization? Seems like they should’ve moved together.