I've read 15 books about the 2020 election...Ask me anything!

[Roll Roons]

1) Why did Bernie Sanders do worse in 2020 than in 2016, despite having four years to prepare, near-universal name recognition, and being viewed very positively by Democratic primary voters?
2) What was Kamala Harris's plan after her "that little girl was me" confrontation with Biden in that debate, if any? The attacks on Biden on busing never made much sense, because at some point she would have had to argue that busing was good and should be brought back, which is a position that maybe 10% of the population holds, and the policy was never very popular even in the Black community.
3) Why did polls show a bigger lead for Biden than the final results? The polling miss was even bigger than in 2016, they just got the winner right. By contrast, the polls in 2018 were much closer to the mark (though still of in a few key races), and 2022 had an error in the other direction

1. Bernie Sander's campaign expected to lose some support from 2016 to 2020. Some support would be lost to Warren, a fellow progressive. But not a lot because Sanders mostly competed with Biden for voters. Both Biden and Sanders were "beer" while Warren was "wine". They also expected to lose some votes to Biden because of name recongition and some to youth support to "flavor of the month" candidiates. They also acknowledged that Sanders in 2016 had some support because some Democrats just wanted a male or protested Hillary. Some of Bernie's 2016 support just wanted Biden and Bernie was a place holder.

Sanders campaign knew the only way to win was by winning a pluratiy and than a contested convention.

2. Kamala's plan from the start was to be VP. If she became the nominee the better. The "that little girl was me" actually took her campaign by surpise, they weren't expected such a reaction. Thus could not build from that. The Harris campaign was a s*** show behind the scenes and was never going to become a successful operation. So basically no plan.

3. Both the Biden and Trump campaigns knew the polls over performed for Biden. The Biden campaign knew they weren't going to win Florida from internal polls. The Biden campaign final predictions were pretty close, they were only wrong about North Carolina.

Why were the polls wrong again? I don't think any of the books go into great detail. Some things about Trump voters not picking up the phone to Democrats being more likely to stay home.

For # 3, why didn’t the Biden campaign warn downballot Dems (especially the DCCC) that the polls were over performing for Democrats and they needed to play more defense in certain seats?

I'm also curious about this. Wasserman and co. kept insisting that Democrats were on track for at least a 10 seat net gain in the House, but a lot of the seats that they insisted were going to be super-tight (AR-02, NY-24, TX-03) ended up being double digit Republican wins. And he supposedly has access to actual internals from the DCCC and NRCC, not just the BS push polls.

What gives?

[Roll Roons]

1) Why did Bernie Sanders do worse in 2020 than in 2016, despite having four years to prepare, near-universal name recognition, and being viewed very positively by Democratic primary voters?
2) What was Kamala Harris's plan after her "that little girl was me" confrontation with Biden in that debate, if any? The attacks on Biden on busing never made much sense, because at some point she would have had to argue that busing was good and should be brought back, which is a position that maybe 10% of the population holds, and the policy was never very popular even in the Black community.
3) Why did polls show a bigger lead for Biden than the final results? The polling miss was even bigger than in 2016, they just got the winner right. By contrast, the polls in 2018 were much closer to the mark (though still of in a few key races), and 2022 had an error in the other direction

1. Bernie Sander's campaign expected to lose some support from 2016 to 2020. Some support would be lost to Warren, a fellow progressive. But not a lot because Sanders mostly competed with Biden for voters. Both Biden and Sanders were "beer" while Warren was "wine". They also expected to lose some votes to Biden because of name recongition and some to youth support to "flavor of the month" candidiates. They also acknowledged that Sanders in 2016 had some support because some Democrats just wanted a male or protested Hillary. Some of Bernie's 2016 support just wanted Biden and Bernie was a place holder.

Sanders campaign knew the only way to win was by winning a pluratiy and than a contested convention.

2. Kamala's plan from the start was to be VP. If she became the nominee the better. The "that little girl was me" actually took her campaign by surpise, they weren't expected such a reaction. Thus could not build from that. The Harris campaign was a s*** show behind the scenes and was never going to become a successful operation. So basically no plan.

3. Both the Biden and Trump campaigns knew the polls over performed for Biden. The Biden campaign knew they weren't going to win Florida from internal polls. The Biden campaign final predictions were pretty close, they were only wrong about North Carolina.

Why were the polls wrong again? I don't think any of the books go into great detail. Some things about Trump voters not picking up the phone to Democrats being more likely to stay home.

For # 3, why didn’t the Biden campaign warn downballot Dems (especially the DCCC) that the polls were over performing for Democrats and they needed to play more defense in certain seats?

I'm also curious about this. Wasserman and co. kept insisting that Democrats were on track for at least a 10 seat net gain in the House, but a lot of the seats that they insisted were going to be super-tight (AR-02, NY-24, TX-03) ended up being double digit Republican wins. And he supposedly has access to actual internals from the DCCC and NRCC, not just the BS push polls.

What gives?

Everyone was wrong about house races. Internal polls for the DCCC and NRCC were both wrong. None of the books really describe why. My guess there were a lot of people who voted for Biden and Republican down ballot, but were concentrated in select districts

Weird. I'm actually surprised there hasn't been any sort of public deep dive about why all the House polls were so bad. It would definitely be an interesting project to explore...