2024 Presidential Predictions (General)
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  2024 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2024 Predictions (Highest Scores)
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Latest 2024 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
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ElijahArq98 (I-VA)MapProfile 07-16 7 Even 327 (0) 211 (0) 0 (0) 0
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here2view (D-MA)MapProfile 07-15 16 Even 312 (0) 226 (0) 0 (0) 0
Ryangr_98 (R-CA)MapProfile 07-15 36 Even 329 (0) 209 (0) 0 (0) 0
marcorem451 (I-ME)MapProfile 07-15 3 Even 312 (0) 226 (0) 0 (0) 0
Horatii (R-MA)MapProfile 07-14 4 Even 327 (0) 211 (0) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2024 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
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Author Topic: 2024 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 52392 times)
ElectionAtlas
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« on: January 31, 2023, 09:20:19 AM »
« edited: January 31, 2023, 02:47:14 PM by ElectionAtlas »

Hi - the Presidential Predictions for 2024 President are now open.  Please let me know if you find any issues.
Thanks,
Dave
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Solid4096
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2023, 05:45:27 PM »

When will we get 2024 Senate and 2023/2024 Governor predictions?
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2023, 05:58:27 PM »

Hi - The 2023 Gubernatorial Predictions are now up.
Enjoy,
Dave
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2023, 01:01:33 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2023, 07:10:22 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

There is 2 yrs between now and Eday things change I keep telling them that we just voted 6 months ago

Just like Blue avatars on the Forum whom swore Rs were gonna get 230 or 240 seats act like they had a 15 seat majority
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RFK 2024
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2023, 04:15:11 PM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).
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RFK 2024
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2023, 10:24:24 AM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).


I expect they'll change when we get more polling.  The actual 2024 results will be very close to last time though.  We saw how the "blue wave" in 2020 and "red wave" in 2022 materialized.  During times of hyper partisanship coupled with online echo chambers the number of swing voters really drops off.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2023, 11:17:01 AM »

There isn't a single difference right now between the aggregate 2024 prediction and the 2020 Presidential election result, both in margins of victory and in the winner.

I wonder which state will break off first

Election results have become super inelastic in recent years, especially since 2018.  It's easier and more accurate to base predictions on demographic trends and voting history than polling data.

In terms of which states would be most likely to flip in 2024,  I would say NC for Dems and WI for Reps, but I'm not sure what odds I would give either atm (probably less than 50).

I'm not even talking about the actual election results but rather the predictions... These predictions have to change eventually that there's some small difference between the 2020 election results and 2024 election predictions (even in margin and not in winner).


I expect they'll change when we get more polling.  The actual 2024 results will be very close to last time though.  We saw how the "blue wave" in 2020 and "red wave" in 2022 materialized.  During times of hyper partisanship coupled with online echo chambers the number of swing voters really drops off.

There can be a blue wave with the same PVI 2008/12 52/46 stop worrying about a 303 map anyways we won KS 22 and we only won PVI by 0.5
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2023, 11:24:34 PM »

As of today, I am sticking with my "identical map to 2020" prediction.
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RFK 2024
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2023, 09:24:05 AM »

One year out and I'll post the first map on this thread.



Legend
Tilt = less than 2% margin
Lean = 2 to 5% margin
Likely = 6 to 12% margin
Safe = over 12% margin
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cherry mandarin
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2023, 02:01:46 PM »

One year out and I'll post the first map on this thread.



Legend
Tilt = less than 2% margin
Lean = 2 to 5% margin
Likely = 6 to 12% margin
Safe = over 12% margin

Nice map! What makes you think WI will vote more R than NV, AZ, GA despite 2020's results and the latest NYT/Siena poll of swing states?

Quote

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wnwnwn
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« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2024, 10:47:06 AM »

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Del Tachi
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2024, 03:33:59 PM »

The aggregate prediction now has Trump winning 278-260.  It looks like this is the first time since Q4-2011 that the Forum has been predicting a GOP victory.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2024, 10:47:23 AM »

I have 343 EV's for Trump, aside of the usual suspects also flipping MN, VA, ME at large & NM.

The aggregate prediction now has Trump winning 278-260.  It looks like this is the first time since Q4-2011 that the Forum has been predicting a GOP victory.

The aggregate is now 312-226 for trump
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