Describe a McGovern 1972/Reagan 1980 voter
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Describe a McGovern 1972/Reagan 1980 voter
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Author Topic: Describe a McGovern 1972/Reagan 1980 voter  (Read 2589 times)
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Computer89
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« Reply #25 on: August 12, 2023, 01:38:41 PM »

America swung 13 points left between 1972 and 1980, from 61-38 R in 1972 to 51-41 R in 1980. Here's the state-by-state swing map:



Reagan actually gained in much of the Southwest, particularly California (!!). Much of the swing against him was concentrated in the South, where totally insane 40-point swings were basically routine.


The last Republican nominee to win California by a larger margin than Reagan in either 1980 or 1984 was Hoover in 1928.


1. Reagan 1980: R+16.8
2. Reagan 1984: R+16.2
3. Eisenhower 1952: R+14.6


It really seemed like California maxed out for Republicans at a presidential level at around 14-15 points as despite massive landslides in 1956/1972, the Republicans never could cross that amount until Reagan got a home state bump but even then its clear the Democrats had a pretty large floor in California.


1984 was still technically left of the center, first time of real permanence since 1956 and 1972 were islands.

Well its more cause the GOP Clearly had a ceiling in CA during presidential years. It was usually around 14-15 points but Reagan just added two points to that so it became 16-17 points. That meant that even during national landslides , CA wouldnt swing as much to the right as the Dems had a much higher floor in CA.

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