Describe a McGovern 1972/Reagan 1980 voter

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Someone from SD?

[Mr. Smith]

A spiteful Ted Kennedy '80 voter.

[Mechavada]

Let's look at the one state that Nixon lost but Reagan won in both of his elections:

1972


1980


Look at the immediate Boston area/Riviera.  While there isn't a massive shift (Anderson did take a bunch of anti-Carter liberals in some places) there are still quite a few towns (particularly on the North and South Shores) that went for Reagan.  In 1984 with the absence of Anderson Reagan would improve his margins even more among these types.

Now what is the sociocultural dynamic in these places that went for McGovern but ended up going for Reagan?  Alright a lot of them seem to be middle-upper class areas that attracted for lack of a better term "Democratic whites" from Boston who started moving out of the city and into the burbs.  When Nixon was president a lot of these folks still had reflexive Democratic voting habits (though you can tell in some parts even back then there was some underperformance among this group with McGovern largley because he was seen as an affirmative action pro-busing kind of candidate).  McGovern trying to associate himself with Robert Kennedy's movement in 1968 and having a random inlaw on the ticket might have helped a little bit.  I mean you have a candidate whose last name is "McGovern" who is somewhat associated with the Kennedy family, makes that point quite clearly, while his opponent has made a career out of attacking "the Harvard elites".  So yeah, even if Nixon did have some issues that these voters agreed with him on and would otherwise be sympathetic to he was always a TERRIBLE CANDIDATE for Massachusetts (he lost the state twice with less than 40% of the vote (LOL) at a time when Republicans still had a decent state and local presence there and then he lost it again with only 45% against a man that was widely painted in the press and media as a liberal radical who wanted to legalized ACID on top of abortion AND amnestry).

Contrast this with Jimmy Carter who made minimal gains among in Mass and actually LOST some of these Dems despite being ambivalent on the whole busing issue.  Where does a lot of this come from?  It was a combination of factors.  Namely these folks were still pissed off about the busing crisis that happened earlier in the decade.  Middle class voters started moving down to the shore, out of Boston, and voting more in line with their newfound economic and racial concerns as suburban commuters.  Thus you would see in Massachusetts in 1976 a very weird development: heavily Yankee rural western Mass going for Georgia peanut farmer Carter in a massive shift while the shift in South Shore would be very lukewarm at best.  Don't be fooled by the below map, Carter gained maybe 2 points over McGovern (LOL):



So basically, the whole "Reagan Democrat" phenomenom that a lot of folks for some reason associate with working class Kentucky whites and western Pennsylvania coalminers.  In reality while there was a working class component to the Reagan coalition (think more like Sal at the local VHS repair shop/Sean at the local Target, not coalminers) a lot of these folks were honestly very middle class if not upper middle class and largely adopted the suburban American lifestyle that many Republican voters did at the time.  A lot of these places (besides like idfk South Boston) were not poor Southies living in projects but actually very comfortable solidly upper middle (what the locals might refer to as "lace curtain") class towns.

I think there were similar dynamics at play in several northeastern states at the time that generally leaned Democratic: basically a middle and upper class revolt among the base in response to inflation, high interest rates, and a slagging economy.

[darklordoftech]

A single-issue anti-draft, anti-embargo, or pro-Israel voter.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Eugene McCarthy

[TDAS04]

Obviously a lot of people in my state.

A 22-year-old hippie who fell in love with McGovern, and who was a completely different person at age 30.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The real challenge might be to find one outside SD or MA.

[Mr. Smith]

A Nixon '72-Mondale '84 one would be even harder...outside of Minnesota and Marin County anyway.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

A Nixon '72-Mondale '84 one would be even harder...outside of Minnesota and Marin County anyway.

seems to have been fairly common in Appalachia.

[TDAS04]

A Nixon '72-Mondale '84 one would be even harder...outside of Minnesota and Marin County anyway.

No, not really (see what shua said).

Did you a mean Ford-Mondale voter?  That would be much more difficult, but I believe two counties voted that way: Marin, CA and Tompkins, NY. Also John Anderson, probably.

[King of Kensington]

McGovern was a Ford-Mondale voter.

[dw93]

An anti draft hippy baby boomer who between 1972 and 1980 got theirs, sold out, and became a 1980s yuppie. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a significant number of these.

[Mr. Smith]

Also some of the "Jefferson" counties of California.

[MyLifeIsYours]

First time voter born around 1951-1954 who was a hippie liberal that detest Nixon. As the person became more resentful with the Carter adminstration and moderation in ideology, that person crossed over to support Reagan.

[Arbitrage1980]

Someone from Washtenaw County MI (home to Ann Arbor). Was a student at University of Michigan in 1972, anti-war, voted McGovern. In 1980, a middle class married man with kids, voted Reagan. The county was McGovern-Reagan.

[Fuzzy Bear]

McGovern was a Ford-Mondale voter.

During the 1972 campaign McGovern referred to Jimmy Carter as "the biggest prick in politics".  The manner in which Carter opposed McGovern's nomination was something he never really got over.  He considered Carter's role in the ABM (Anybody but McGovern) movement prior to the nomination to be something that helped do his campaign in.

This view of Carter by McGovern was somewhat unfair.  It was politics, and McGovern should have understood this.  After McGovern was nominated, Carter called Scoop Jackson at 4 am and asked Scoop to push McGovern for the VP slot.  Both Jackson and McGovern were both rather put off by this; the sort of negativity Carter put out about McGovern was not the kind of commentary that would make someone even a compromise/unity VP pick.  Still, McGovern should probably have taken Carter up on it; no one else wanted to run with McGovern except Eagleton, who was hiding a history of psychiatric hospitalization.  Carter would have been a pick that would have done no harm.  On the other hand, if Carter had been McGovern's running mate he likely would not have been nominated for President in 1976.

[Republican Party Stalwart]

Someone from Washtenaw County MI (home to Ann Arbor). Was a student at University of Michigan in 1972, anti-war, voted McGovern. In 1980, a middle class married man with kids, voted Reagan. The county was McGovern-Reagan.

I also imagine that, while D-leaning voters nationwide were substantially more likely than the other way around to pick Nixon over McGovern in 1972 and then pick Mondale over Reagan in 1984, vice versa may have been the case for liberal college kids considering that 72 Nixon was much "meaner" than McGovern whereas Reagan was no less "nice" (if not even "nicer") than Mondale.

[Republican Party Stalwart]

A Nixon '72-Mondale '84 one would be even harder

The difference in the national popular vote margins of victory between 72 and 84 is enough to singlehandedly prove that wrong.

Furthermore, there exists a very clear archetype for Nixon 72-Mondale 84 voters - Republicans and Social Conservatives who were opposed to Reaganomics (and/or found Reagan's personality to be off-putting/inauthentic or otherwise dislikeable) - which most likely represented a larger share of the US population (in both 1972 and 1984) than whatever archetype(s) one could come up with for a McGovern 72-Reagan 84 voter

[ReaganLimbaugh]

During the 1972 campaign McGovern referred to Jimmy Carter as "the biggest prick in politics". 

Fuzzy, while I don't doubt the above assertion in quotes above....may I ask what your source is?  Thanks.

[Jim Crow]

I'd say they're likely to be hippies who started out as liberal boomers then became Reagan Democrats or possibly Republicans who grew up.

[Vosem]

America swung 13 points left between 1972 and 1980, from 61-38 R in 1972 to 51-41 R in 1980. Here's the state-by-state swing map:

Reagan actually gained in much of the Southwest, particularly California (!!). Much of the swing against him was concentrated in the South, where totally insane 40-point swings were basically routine.

[Arbitrage1980]

McGovern was a Ford-Mondale voter.

During the 1972 campaign McGovern referred to Jimmy Carter as "the biggest prick in politics".  The manner in which Carter opposed McGovern's nomination was something he never really got over.  He considered Carter's role in the ABM (Anybody but McGovern) movement prior to the nomination to be something that helped do his campaign in.

This view of Carter by McGovern was somewhat unfair.  It was politics, and McGovern should have understood this.  After McGovern was nominated, Carter called Scoop Jackson at 4 am and asked Scoop to push McGovern for the VP slot.  Both Jackson and McGovern were both rather put off by this; the sort of negativity Carter put out about McGovern was not the kind of commentary that would make someone even a compromise/unity VP pick.  Still, McGovern should probably have taken Carter up on it; no one else wanted to run with McGovern except Eagleton, who was hiding a history of psychiatric hospitalization.  Carter would have been a pick that would have done no harm.  On the other hand, if Carter had been McGovern's running mate he likely would not have been nominated for President in 1976.

Interesting. Didn't know Carter pushed to be McGovern's running mate. In 1972 Sam Nunn won the Senate race by only 9 points due to the McGovern landslide defeat (lost GA by 50 points and every county) and refused to endorse McGovern.

Reubin Askew, FL governor, was offered the VP slot by McGovern but turned it down.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Anti-war voter that had been opposed to the draft in 72 and was mad about Carter bringing back registration. Also a lot of northeastern Irish-Catholics that were Ted Kennedy loyalists.

[OSR stands with Israel]

America swung 13 points left between 1972 and 1980, from 61-38 R in 1972 to 51-41 R in 1980. Here's the state-by-state swing map:

Reagan actually gained in much of the Southwest, particularly California (!!). Much of the swing against him was concentrated in the South, where totally insane 40-point swings were basically routine.

The last Republican nominee to win California by a larger margin than Reagan in either 1980 or 1984 was Hoover in 1928.


1. Reagan 1980: R+16.8
2. Reagan 1984: R+16.2
3. Eisenhower 1952: R+14.6


It really seemed like California maxed out for Republicans at a presidential level at around 14-15 points as despite massive landslides in 1956/1972, the Republicans never could cross that amount until Reagan got a home state bump but even then its clear the Democrats had a pretty large floor in California.

[Mr. Smith]

America swung 13 points left between 1972 and 1980, from 61-38 R in 1972 to 51-41 R in 1980. Here's the state-by-state swing map:

Reagan actually gained in much of the Southwest, particularly California (!!). Much of the swing against him was concentrated in the South, where totally insane 40-point swings were basically routine.

The last Republican nominee to win California by a larger margin than Reagan in either 1980 or 1984 was Hoover in 1928.


1. Reagan 1980: R+16.8
2. Reagan 1984: R+16.2
3. Eisenhower 1952: R+14.6


It really seemed like California maxed out for Republicans at a presidential level at around 14-15 points as despite massive landslides in 1956/1972, the Republicans never could cross that amount until Reagan got a home state bump but even then its clear the Democrats had a pretty large floor in California.

1984 was still technically left of the center, first time of real permanence since 1956 and 1972 were islands.