Why do Westchester and Nassau vote so differently?

[Roll Roons]

Nassau is slightly whiter, but not by that much (57% vs 52%) and they have similar rates of college education (Nassau is 48% college-educated and Westchester is 51%).

Despite that, Biden won Westchester by 36 points and Nassau by only 10. Nassau swung so hard to the right last year that even Schumer lost it, although at least that could be attributed to Zeldin's coattails. Additionally, Republicans are a lot stronger in local elections in Nassau than they are in Westchester. Why have they diverged so dramatically?

[kwabbit]

bada bing bada boom

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Westchester and Nassau are just very different places, and they attract different types of people. Westchester is more "city commuter with young kids living in a town with boutique shops, diverse friend group, might still get a country club membership" so it's just a place where people like to at least appear socially liberal. Lots of artsy people, lots of suburban-leaning on urban places. Nassau is "city commuter, family has lived here for generations, spends weekends out on LI at the beach". People are more likely to live in a house, not an apartment, have to drive to their train station not walk, generally have a more suburban experience, things like that which generally make a place less left-wing. Just my anecdotal experience knowing a bunch of people from both places.

[King of Kensington]

Westchester has more liberal elites, more transplants, more Ivy grads etc.  Nassau is more insular "New Yawkish."

Nassau's Jewish population is more Orthodox and traditional than Westchester's.

[King of Kensington]

Read somewhere on Twitter (can't find it) that said something like Long Island boomers who went to Ivy League schools and elite colleges moved to Westchester, while white ethnic boomers who grew up the outer boroughs moved to LI.

[Torie]

Who makes their living in the arts and letters, and managing the intersection between government and private industry? And where do the elite tend to move to, if relocating to the NYC metro area, if not to Manhattan? Yes, right, it's not Nassau County. Look up the percentage in elite towns in Westchester who did not grow up in the NYC area. The percentage is relatively high.  Where do you think I would live in the NYC area if I had secondary school age kids and did not have the requisite net worth and income to manage it all, including private schools, in Manhattan? Yep, someplace near a LLR station in Westchester, near the Long Island sound. That is precisely where my new heart doc lives, who is in that category, and is an outstanding surfer to boot.

[Vosem]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What an amazing cultural specemin.

[Storr]

This is amazing...

"Nassau is the place to go, ain't no other place I'd rather be. Westchester's for pussies, nothin' stinks like Jersey."

But seriously, I think some of the difference in voting patterns might be due to the housing market. NYC cops living and retiring in Nassau (or Suffolk) is a stereotype for a reason. You don't seem many cops retiring to Westchester because they simply can't afford homes there.

Residential median sale price
County:            2019:         2020:         2021:
Nassau            $541,000.   $585,000   $620,000
Suffolk            $420,000.   $470,000   $510,000
Westchester     $629,020   $707,500   $750,000

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

I'm dyyyyying. This is so accurate. I swear this is still how people from there dress too LMAO

[Del Tachi]

The top-line racial and education numbers obscure that there's just something different about the people who choose to live in either, as Torie's post suggests.  Westchester is more elite and elite-adjacent.   

[King of Kensington]

Places like Bergen County, Nassau, etc. should be much more Democratic than they currently are. Without knowing the ethnic composition of Whites, Bergen, Nassau, Suffolk, Ocean and Monmouth, and Staten Island should all be 10ish points more Dem than they actually are. It's definitely the Italians voting unusually Republican that boosts the GOP.

Look at Montgomery County, PA. It's 72% White and 62-36 Biden. Nassau is 56% White and 54-44, Bergen is 53% White and 59-39. There's some education differences driving that, but Nassau and Bergen are also quite educated. It's the Italian vote being 20+%
more Republican than the WASPs that causes this. This is despite a much higher reformed Jewish vote that raises the Democratic share among Whites.

I do agree that it seems that WASPs got realigned before Italians went in the other direction though. However, when there are odd shifts in NYC area counties that are heavily Italian, it's probably the Italians that are driving those shifts.

One thing is that Italians aren't really WWC. What makes the shifts odd is that as other wealthier White groups went strongly Dem, Italians shifted GOP. While they aren't as educated as WASPs, they are by no means WWC. They just behave like it, which is very interesting to me.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=532803.msg8904907#msg8904907

This is a good point.  There's something about the Italian vote in the NYC area.  And in certain suburbs Orthodox Jews.

Westchester seems to be the exception here, it votes how it "should" given its demographics.

[Vosem]

"Nassau is the place to go, ain't no other place I'd rather be. Westchester's for pussies, nothin' stinks like Jersey."

"They say we obnoxious, our attitudes are shіtty...I guess they never met a kid from New York City!"

[King of Kensington]

Nassau has some pretty distinctive cultural geography that defies the "culturally liberal" D trend of affluent suburban counties.

The largely Italian American South Shore which is moderately educated and fairly high income, lots of tradespeople and small business owners.

The Orthodox Jewish Five Towns and Persian Great Neck

There's also Garden City.  It votes more R than one would expect given demographics.

[Suburbia]

This is amazing...

"Nassau is the place to go, ain't no other place I'd rather be. Westchester's for pussies, nothin' stinks like Jersey."

But seriously, I think some of the difference in voting patterns might be due to the housing market. NYC cops living and retiring in Nassau (or Suffolk) is a stereotype for a reason. You don't seem many cops retiring to Westchester because they simply can't afford homes there.

Residential median sale price
County:            2019:         2020:         2021:
Nassau            $541,000.   $585,000   $620,000
Suffolk            $420,000.   $470,000   $510,000
Westchester     $629,020   $707,500   $750,000

Some Italian cops with mob ties could live in W'chester, that's where Judge Jeanine Pirro lives.

But seriously, NYPD and FDNY should be required to live in the city, and yes outside of Staten Island. Make pay affordable and a good salary.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As someone who lives in the NYC area, it's def a cultural self-sorting thing and because of Italians.

[King of Kensington]

As someone who lives in the NYC area, it's def a cultural self-sorting thing and because of Italians.

Agree there's obvious cultural self-sorting.  A liberal-minded journalist is going to opt for Westchester.  A conservative-minded orthodontist is going to opt for Nassau.

The share of Italians isn't all that different between Nassau and Westchester though.

[lfromnj]

By the way does anyone know how Yonkers voted in the 2022 gubernatorial. Unlike the rest of Westchester it seems closer to Long Island.

[Tekken_Guy]

Scarsdale is basically New York State’s version of Millburn.

[King of Kensington]

Born in other state

Westchester  140,049  14%
Nassau  72,200  5.2%

[Torie]

By the way does anyone know how Yonkers voted in the 2022 gubernatorial. Unlike the rest of Westchester it seems closer to Long Island.

https://imgur.com/vXRuSNK

[kwabbit]

Born in other state

Westchester  140,049  14%
Nassau  72,200  5.2%

Where do you get that data? Seems low for Westchester, but maybe people stay in the state where they were born more than I think.

[King of Kensington]

2021 ACS 1-year estimates.

Keep in mind that Yonkers and Mount Vernon make up about 25% of Westchester's population and they're working class cities without many transplants.  It's likely lower in towns with a more explicit "ethnic" character like Scarsdale (Jewish) or Eastchester (Italian).  In places like Larchmont, Rye or Pound Ridge it's almost certainly quite a bit higher than the county average.

[King of Kensington]

Since 2008, Nassau has been a pretty consistent 53-54% D, 45% R (dropping to 51% when the third party vote was up in 2016).  It's pretty much alone among affluent suburban counties where Trump has performed at roughly the same level as Romney.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A pretty consistent factor in American electoral patterns is - and always has been - the triumph here and there of cultural factors over material ones.