Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

On Tuesday morning of election:
2021G: 685K; 71.1% D, 21.8% R — D+49.3
2022G: 1.18M; 69.2% D, 21.3% R — D+47.9
2023G: 782K; 72.0% D, 20.8% R — D+51.2

2024P (so far): 248K; 73.7% D, 25.3% R — D+48.4

I'd have to go back to see how the other primaries have gone, but primary right now moving similarly to VBM for the last 3 generals.

[wbrocks67]

VBM requested: 887,473
Dem: 645,122 (72.7%)
Rep: 233,652 (26.3%)

VBM returned: 322,549
Dem: 235,319 (73.0%)
Rep: 84,598 (26.2%)

Dem return rate: 36.5%
Rep return rate: 36.2%

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Today is the last day to request a ballot, correct?

[cg41386]

Kevin Boyle has a warrant out for his arrest.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Brendan Boyle has a warrant out for his arrest.

No, that's his brother, Kevin Boyle, in the state House.

[Malarkey Decider]

On Tuesday morning of election:
2021G: 685K; 71.1% D, 21.8% R — D+49.3
2022G: 1.18M; 69.2% D, 21.3% R — D+47.9
2023G: 782K; 72.0% D, 20.8% R — D+51.2

2024P (so far): 248K; 73.7% D, 25.3% R — D+48.4

I'd have to go back to see how the other primaries have gone, but primary right now moving similarly to VBM for the last 3 generals.

If you had to wager a guess, how many total combined votes do you think we get in the Democratic and Republican primary?

[wbrocks67]

Today is the last day to request a ballot, correct?

Yes

[wbrocks67]

On Tuesday morning of election:
2021G: 685K; 71.1% D, 21.8% R — D+49.3
2022G: 1.18M; 69.2% D, 21.3% R — D+47.9
2023G: 782K; 72.0% D, 20.8% R — D+51.2

2024P (so far): 248K; 73.7% D, 25.3% R — D+48.4

I'd have to go back to see how the other primaries have gone, but primary right now moving similarly to VBM for the last 3 generals.

If you had to wager a guess, how many total combined votes do you think we get in the Democratic and Republican primary?

I think we could get pretty close to 2021G. We'll likely end up close to 900k requested, and if we get to ~75% return rate like last year, that would put us at around 675k.

[cg41386]

Brendan Boyle has a warrant out for his arrest.

No, that's his brother, Kevin Boyle, in the state House.

Fixed.

[wbrocks67]

AG fundraising:
Solomon - $363k
Stollstemier - $352k
Khan - $276k
Bradford-Grey - $114k
Depasquale - $88k

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/04/pennsylvania-primary-election-2024-attorney-general-campaign-finance-cycle-2/

Those #s are truly ghastly for Depasquale. I think I might do Solomon at this point.

[wbrocks67]

VBM requested: 895,166
Dem: 650,260 (72.6%)
Rep: 236,133 (26.4%)

VBM returned: 357,257
Dem: 259,602 (72.7%)
Rep: 94,826 (26.5%)

Dem return rate: 39.9%
Rep return rate: 40.2%

Montco not even having processed 1,000 ballots out of 79,000 requested... ugh

[VPH]

AG fundraising:
Solomon - $363k
Stollstemier - $352k
Khan - $276k
Bradford-Grey - $114k
Depasquale - $88k

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/04/pennsylvania-primary-election-2024-attorney-general-campaign-finance-cycle-2/

Those #s are truly ghastly for Depasquale. I think I might do Solomon at this point.

That’s a “concerned about his ability to fundraise in the general” territory yikes.

[Lambsbread]

I think I’ve all but decided to vote for Khan for AG. Might give it one more once over on Tuesday morning. I do kind of wish I’d switched to vote in GOP primary because the race between Brian Fitzpatrick and Mark Houck is interesting. I would have voted for Houck of course.

[wbrocks67]

VBM requested: 895,705
Dem: 650,585 (72.6%)
Rep: 236,345 (26.4%)

VBM returned: 552,839
Dem: 406,166 (73.5%)
Rep: 143,231 (25.9%)

Dem return rate: 62.4%
Rep return rate: 60.6%

[wbrocks67]

VBM requested: 895,709
Dem: 650,588 (72.6%)
Rep: 236,346 (26.4%)

VBM returned: 563,378
Dem: 415,156 (73.7%)
Rep: 144,759 (25.7%)

Dem return rate: 63.8%
Rep return rate: 61.2%

[wbrocks67]

#TwitterIsNotRealLife

https://twitter.com/nick_d_laughlin/status/1782408198437158931

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullfinch poll that shows Trump up by 6 is a liar

[Lambsbread]

#TwitterIsNotRealLife

https://twitter.com/nick_d_laughlin/status/1782408198437158931

Even my parents, who are diehard Trump supporters, have given him his props. They don't like him and would never vote for him, but they never say nice things about Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the discourse around Fetterman on Twitter specifically has been rather unhinged imo. You can disagree with him being more pro-Israel than what you'd like, but the people who go as far as to say that he's 'disgusting' or Joe Manchin or whatever is just delusional. Fetterman aligns 98% with every other mainstream Democrat on the issues. Because he disagrees with you on Israel, he's suddenly a turncoat? It's all so exhausting

[Lambsbread]

Honestly, the discourse around Fetterman on Twitter specifically has been rather unhinged imo. You can disagree with him being more pro-Israel than what you'd like, but the people who go as far as to say that he's 'disgusting' or Joe Manchin or whatever is just delusional. Fetterman aligns 98% with every other mainstream Democrat on the issues. Because he disagrees with you on Israel, he's suddenly a turncoat? It's all so exhausting

My personal gripe has been the extent to which he has made his support for Israel a response to the online left. Like he intensifies his support in response to the online backlash. That bugs me a little bit, but certainly not enough to call him a genocider or "basically a Republican" lmao.

[cg41386]

Kevin Boyle's arrest warrant has been withdrawn.

[Splash]

I guess I'll vote for DePasquale tomorrow. I looked into all the other candidates but, tbh, none of them impressed me all that much.

I might also lodge a protest vote against Summer Lee but she's obviously going to win by a convincing margin. This had the potential to be a competitive race several months ago but Lee has done a fair job at consolidating establishment support and isolating Patel since then. I'm still occasionally annoyed by her performative antics but at least she's better than Bush and Tlaib.

[Holmes]

Honestly, the discourse around Fetterman on Twitter specifically has been rather unhinged imo. You can disagree with him being more pro-Israel than what you'd like, but the people who go as far as to say that he's 'disgusting' or Joe Manchin or whatever is just delusional. Fetterman aligns 98% with every other mainstream Democrat on the issues. Because he disagrees with you on Israel, he's suddenly a turncoat? It's all so exhausting

He’s an asshole but he’s your asshole.

[wbrocks67]

VBM requested: 895,861
Dem: 650,682 (72.6%)
Rep: 236,403 (26.4%)

VBM returned: 634,683
Dem: 466,806 (73.6%)
Rep: 164,220 (25.9%)

Dem return rate: 71.7%
Rep return rate: 69.5%

--

On Tuesday morning of election:
2021G: 685K; 71.1% D, 21.8% R — D+49.3
2022G: 1.18M; 69.2% D, 21.3% R — D+47.9
2023G: 782K; 72.0% D, 20.8% R — D+51.2
2024P: 635K; 73.6% D, 25.9% R — D+47.7

Pretty impressive that we got very close to the VBM pre-election day tally of the 2021 general for a primary. Reps did a smidge better than they typically do for VBM (only comparing to generals though), but it's still essentially the same near D+50 performance that we've been seeing consistently

[°Leprechaun]

https://abcnews.go.com/538/4-house-primaries-watch-pennsylvania/story?id=109430304