HarvardHarris: Trump +20, +10 head-to-head

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1616495204608970761

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republican voters have moved on from Trump.
Not.

[Tekken_Guy]

Republican voters have moved on from Trump.
Not.

Trump always polls very well in Harvard-Harris relative to other pollsters.

[Fancyarcher]

Republican voters have moved on from Trump.
Not.

Trump always polls very well in Harvard-Harris relative to other pollsters.

I mean he's been polling well in the last few primary polls we got, not just Harvard-Harris.

Feels like DeSantis peaked, that and we're probably getting more polls that are actually weighting for education.

[Liminal Trans Girl]

Desantis's Star has faded

[Tekken_Guy]

Republican voters have moved on from Trump.
Not.

Trump always polls very well in Harvard-Harris relative to other pollsters.

I mean he's been polling well in the last few primary polls we got, not just Harvard-Harris.

Feels like DeSantis peaked, that and we're probably getting more polls that are actually weighting for education.

The pollsters we’ve been getting have been some of Trump’s better ones post-midterms. He’s always had a solid lead in Morning Consult, Big Village, etc.

We haven’t seen the polls that favored DeSantis, like Suffolk, Monmouth, or Marquette lately.

[Fancyarcher]

Republican voters have moved on from Trump.
Not.

Trump always polls very well in Harvard-Harris relative to other pollsters.

I mean he's been polling well in the last few primary polls we got, not just Harvard-Harris.

Feels like DeSantis peaked, that and we're probably getting more polls that are actually weighting for education.

The pollsters we’ve been getting have been some of Trump’s better ones post-midterms. He’s always had a solid lead in Morning Consult, Big Village, etc.

We haven’t seen the polls that favored DeSantis, like Suffolk, Monmouth, or Marquette lately.

Those are also the only polls that do it regularly these days, though. That's why I tend to take it their word more, because they are overall more up to date.

That being said election season has barely even begun, so anything could happen.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Well this isn't that surprising if you think about it.  Trump is a national figure.  DeSantis isn't.  He had his 15 minutes of national fame because of covid, but he's not on the news all the time.
Trump was also involved in electing McCarthy, deSantis was invisible.

DeSantis could still win, but it will be an uphill battle.  Republican primary voters will have to get to know him, and it's not a guarantee that they will like him (see Bush, Rubio and others).

[Agafin]

Well this isn't that surprising if you think about it.  Trump is a national figure.  DeSantis isn't.  He had his 15 minutes of national fame because of covid, but he's not on the news all the time.
Trump was also involved in electing McCarthy, deSantis was invisible.

DeSantis could still win, but it will be an uphill battle.  Republican primary voters will have to get to know him, and it's not a guarantee that they will like him (see Bush, Rubio and others).

It is 100% guaranteed that they will like him, no question there. His approval amongst republicans who know him are like 95-5 or something. The question is, will the like him enough to vote for him over Trump?

[President Johnson]

If DeSandwich wants a chance, he needs to face Trump head to head. But he needs to consolidate the anti-Trump vote and I'm not sure whether he can do it once in the race, especially when he attempts to outflank Trump on the right on some issues.

It's obviously still a long way to go until even votes are being cast, but seems like Trump has regained some standing and is clearly in the driver's seat for the nomination, even when most Atlas Republicans would like to see otherwise.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The issue DeSantis has is sustaining any type of momentum until the first vote. We've seen rising stars come and go for decades. DeSantis gained attention after winning re-election by 20 points, but that won't be remembered a year from now. The only thing he's doing now to keep his name in the news is implementing pseudo-fascist policies in Florida.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yep, DeSantis peaked too soon. He was even winning a few polls, but now he is consistently losing to the leader of the Republican party, Donald Trump.

[OneJ]

Yeah I do sense that DeSantis may have missed his opening here. The aftermath of the midterms was arguably the best time for him to declare as there was clearly some movement towards him. Like Fmr. Pres. Duke said, I suspect a lot of GOP voters have already forgotten and/or moved on from the midterms. Practically the only thing I've seen lately that suggests that DeSantis is still in this thing is the Siena/NYT poll of Mississippi but it hardly matters given how much time there is between now and the first primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

If DeSandwich wants a chance, he needs to face Trump head to head. But he needs to consolidate the anti-Trump vote and I'm not sure whether he can do it once in the race, especially when he attempts to outflank Trump on the right on some issues.

It's obviously still a long way to go until even votes are being cast, but seems like Trump has regained some standing and is clearly in the driver's seat for the nomination, even when most Atlas Republicans would like to see otherwise.

Has Trump regained standing? Have we seen movement towards Trump in individual polls by specific pollsters, or is it more of a case of more Trump-friendly polls being more in the picture.

[Хahar 🤔]

If DeSandwich wants a chance, he needs to face Trump head to head. But he needs to consolidate the anti-Trump vote and I'm not sure whether he can do it once in the race, especially when he attempts to outflank Trump on the right on some issues.

It's obviously still a long way to go until even votes are being cast, but seems like Trump has regained some standing and is clearly in the driver's seat for the nomination, even when most Atlas Republicans would like to see otherwise.

Has Trump regained standing? Have we seen movement towards Trump in individual polls by specific pollsters, or is it more of a case of more Trump-friendly polls being more in the picture.

To some extent it's a distinction without a difference, right? Remember how people  thought Democrats were going to be slaughtered last year because the zone was flooded with bad polls late in the cycle. Ultimately it didn't matter too much because general election results are based on votes and not polls, but in a presidential nomination campaign polls are a lot more important and perception to a large extent is reality.

[Tekken_Guy]

If DeSandwich wants a chance, he needs to face Trump head to head. But he needs to consolidate the anti-Trump vote and I'm not sure whether he can do it once in the race, especially when he attempts to outflank Trump on the right on some issues.

It's obviously still a long way to go until even votes are being cast, but seems like Trump has regained some standing and is clearly in the driver's seat for the nomination, even when most Atlas Republicans would like to see otherwise.

Has Trump regained standing? Have we seen movement towards Trump in individual polls by specific pollsters, or is it more of a case of more Trump-friendly polls being more in the picture.

To some extent it's a distinction without a difference, right? Remember how people  thought Democrats were going to be slaughtered last year because the zone was flooded with bad polls late in the cycle. Ultimately it didn't matter too much because general election results are based on votes and not polls, but in a presidential nomination campaign polls are a lot more important and perception to a large extent is reality.

I'm still waiting on pollsters that had DeSantis up or at the very least close with Trump to release new polls rather than the ones that constantly showed Trump well ahead even after the midterms.

[Badger]

Nah. Trump has gone so far over the moon that I suspect his pulling strength is a combination of name recognition and have it. His current support is a mile wide and an inch deep.

However, underneath that superficial level is a rock hardcore of supporters. It's going to make him a contender, but I don't think it'll be enough for him to beat DeSantis

[Sir Mohamed]

Desantis's Star has faded

Too soon to tell. He hasn't even declared yet, there's still a chance he doesn't run. He may regain momentum after announcing. After that, we'll see. As of today, Trump remains favored.