2023 Philadelphia mayoral election megathread

[wbrocks67]

Yeah this one is pretty wild, with so many candidates - and good ones at that! I wouldn't put much stock into any poll right now (especially a straw poll) considering only two candidates are up on the air I believe - though I think Gym should be up soon.

I would think that Gym will likely be the frontrunner, but with so many candidates, it's only going to take like 30% of the vote to win this, I think, unless something crazy happens.

Too bad because I also do like Derek Green, Cherelle Parker, and Rebecca Rynhardt.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if anyone has been paying attention but there's been a pretty large scandal for Helen Gym. Not sure if it's enough to cost her the nomination, but she appeared at a cocktail party at the Union League, just a few days after going after them for giving an award to DeSantis.

I liked Gym and probably would've voted for her, though there's more than a few candidates I do like. But this does come off really hypocritical of her, and disappointing to say the least

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if anyone has been paying attention but there's been a pretty large scandal for Helen Gym. Not sure if it's enough to cost her the nomination, but she appeared at a cocktail party at the Union League, just a few days after going after them for giving an award to DeSantis.

I liked Gym and probably would've voted for her, though there's more than a few candidates I do like. But this does come off really hypocritical of her, and disappointing to say the least

This seems really minor? Have a hard time believing anyone cares. If people cared about candidates being too performative, i would doubt that they'd be voting for the WFP endorsed candidate to begin with.

True, though in a Democratic primary that is also so large, things like this get attention, and primary voters are more attuned to what's going on. I don't think this is the end of Gym, but it certainly killed any momentum she had.

[wbrocks67]

I really like Derek Green and Cherelle Parker as well, I hope they find some momentum as well.

Rynhardt seemed to have a good stint as comptroller, so I'm kinda surprised she hasn't really found any either.

[wbrocks67]

Cherelle Parker gets a big endorsement. Would love to see her gain some momentum-

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/clout/philadelphia-mayor-cherelle-parker-building-trades-unions-endorse-20230217.html?outputType=default

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty crazy that we're entering March and we still have yet to have anyone with any sort of real momentum. Jeff Brown may technically be top in the polls purely bc he has spent the most money / has TV ads running. The rest of the field has yet to break out.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty crazy that we're entering March and we still have yet to have anyone with any sort of real momentum. Jeff Brown may technically be top in the polls purely bc he has spent the most money / has TV ads running. The rest of the field has yet to break out.

Gun to my head I think Gym's got the lead because of her ability to (likely, barring Rhynhart or Maria Quiñones-Sánchez or Derek Green surging) mop up white progressives with the rest of the field splitting White moderates, Hispanics, and the multiple blocs of Black voters. SixtySix Wards and that recent Inquirer article provide great breakdowns of the size of each major constituency. That said, major union endorsements help Brown and Parker, and the latter has strong support in higher-turnout Black NW wards. Going to be a super interesting race until the primary.

Agreed. I'd like to see Cherelle Parker break out at this point, but I feel like I see absolutely nothing about her in terms of visibility in this race. Then again, I feel like even Gym has been barely visible lately too (and especially Rynhardt)

[wbrocks67]

Could be the boost she needs-

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1636050955186651142

[wbrocks67]

Professional courtesy requires me to endorse Rhynhart but who tf knows who wins this Royal Rumble of a primary

Yeah, we're about to hit April and it's still so stagnant. Barely any polls, either, but I imagine atm it would be something like

Brown - 18%
Gym - 17%
Parker - 14%
Rhynhart - 12%
Domb - 10%

I assume Green and Quinonas are stuck in the single digits.

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia Inquirer endorses Rebecca Rhynhart
https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/rebecca-rhynhart-mayor-100-endorsement-democratic-primary-20230402.html

I'm thinking she may have a good shot in the crowded field now. Not to mention, Brown has a new controversy where he was caught making a reference to "lynching" his opponents

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/jeff-brown-video-lynch-opponents-philly-mayors-race-20230331.html

[wbrocks67]

Whoever is the moderate/Conservative candidate should learn from Vallas/Caruso. It's not enough to win like that. You have to be like Eric Adams. He has black progressive support and moderate support at the same time.

Interesting because you'd think with so many candidates, there would be one conserva-dem in the mix, but it doesn't seem that way. Parker may be the closest thing, in that she's not as die hard progressive as someone like Gym, but she's still extremely liberal.

[wbrocks67]

Whoever is the moderate/Conservative candidate should learn from Vallas/Caruso. It's not enough to win like that. You have to be like Eric Adams. He has black progressive support and moderate support at the same time.

Interesting because you'd think with so many candidates, there would be one conserva-dem in the mix, but it doesn't seem that way. Parker may be the closest thing, in that she's not as die hard progressive as someone like Gym, but she's still extremely liberal.

I'm surprised that Parker is doing well in a white ethnic areas, you'd never see it in Staten Island.

I kid you not - my Trump-loving Republican grandmother went out of her way to say that she likes Parker (I guess she saw some ads on TV?) and thinks she'd be a good pick. So maybe the strategy of Parker kind of going for that type of voter vs. the white liberals is working for her.

[wbrocks67]

I still think Jeff Brown or Allen Domb is likely going to win the primary.

I don't think Brown has a chance anymore. He has the money, but feels like he's been collapsing with his scandals and then not only the 76ers news but then his comments about Chester at the debate. It's one bad news cycle after another for him.

Domb doesn't really seem to be getting any traction. If I was to guess, I'd think we're now in a 3-way race between Parker, Gym, and Rhynhart.

[wbrocks67]

I still think Jeff Brown or Allen Domb is likely going to win the primary.

I don't think Brown has a chance anymore. He has the money, but feels like he's been collapsing with his scandals and then not only the 76ers news but then his comments about Chester at the debate. It's one bad news cycle after another for him.

Domb doesn't really seem to be getting any traction. If I was to guess, I'd think we're now in a 3-way race between Parker, Gym, and Rhynhart.

If any of those three won the primary I'd be happy.

Agreed, those would be my top 3 at this point. Don't really care for anyone else who's running. Rhynhart would probably be my top pick, I hate that she gets dinged for being not as "personable" when she's probably the most qualified, feels like Hillary all over again lol. I really like Parker as well - but her comments about safe injection sites and stop and frisk did give me pause at the debate. I WANT to like Gym a lot, especially with her public teaching background, but I feel like I'll be on her side and then things like the 76ers moment at the debate will give me slight pause. Just like the DeSantis Union League moment.

[wbrocks67]

Oh, and the FOP is apparently endorsing Brown which.... is not a good thing for him here lol.

[wbrocks67]

Derek Green has dropped out.

[wbrocks67]

City Council leader Darryl Clarke has endorsed Cherelle Parker. Parker may actually be the frontrunner at this point. Funny because early on, she was my favorite. Would be amazing to have not just a woman, but a black woman as mayor. Some of her comments from the other night still don't sit well with me, but I still think she's a great option.

[wbrocks67]

City Council leader Darryl Clarke has endorsed Cherelle Parker. Parker may actually be the frontrunner at this point. Funny because early on, she was my favorite. Would be amazing to have not just a woman, but a black woman as mayor. Some of her comments from the other night still don't sit well with me, but I still think she's a great option.

I'd be fine with her winning the primary. Has Philadelphia ever had a woman mayor?

Nope! And it would certainly be fitting since this would be Philly's 100th mayor.

[wbrocks67]

We're finally getting a poll next Friday!

https://twitter.com/anna_orso/status/1649030790498402307

[wbrocks67]

If I Had to guess where we are right now, I'd say maybe:

Parker: 25%
Rhynhart: 20%
Gym: 18%
Brown: 18%
Domb: 15%

The question with Gym is if she's been able to extend past her hardcore progressive base. Parker seems likely to solidify Amen Brown's supporters and likely some of Jeff Brown's, since he has imploded quite a bit. Rhynhart seems like a perennial dark horse, but still doesn't feel like she's had her "breakout" moment.

[wbrocks67]

If I Had to guess where we are right now, I'd say maybe:

Parker: 25%
Rhynhart: 20%
Gym: 18%
Brown: 18%
Domb: 15%

The question with Gym is if she's been able to extend past her hardcore progressive base. Parker seems likely to solidify Amen Brown's supporters and likely some of Jeff Brown's, since he has imploded quite a bit. Rhynhart seems like a perennial dark horse, but still doesn't feel like she's had her "breakout" moment.

Id be happy with Parker,  Rhynhart or Gym winning but If I had to chose id say Parker.

Agreed, those are my top 3. Rhynhart has probably moved into my top spot. Didn't love her answer on the Fashion District the other night, but she corrected later on social media. I also liked that Parker specified her answer on stop and frisk, because it felt like she was being way too flippant about it originally. I still like Parker's energy though, and would be fine with any 3 of them. The only thing with Gym is that she comes off very Bernie Sanders-ish with the pie in the sky promises with not a ton of attention to what realistically could be done (probably why I like Rhynhart so much), but it's a primary, I get it.

[wbrocks67]

Brendan Boyle endorses Parker. Now both Philly-area Dems (Dwight Evans + Boyle) have endorsed her

https://twitter.com/harrisonlcann/status/1649411195529510916

[wbrocks67]

Ed Rendell has endorsed Rhynart. She now has the last 3 Philly mayors endorsements (outside of Kenney of course)

Jeff Brown has seemingly imploded even more, given his anti-union comments the other night.

At this rate, I seriously think it's between Parker and Rhynhart. Gym seems to have hit a ceiling and feels like she constantly gets more backlash than anything. But we'll see what the poll says tomorrow!

[wbrocks67]

Oh, and the FOP is apparently endorsing Brown which.... is not a good thing for him here lol.

White ethnic Philly would go for a Black mayor...they did it with Nutter....

DA Vega agrees that the FOP is a valuable endorsement.

FOP should stop making endorsements, they've lost credibility outside of white voters

Outside of *conservative white voters

[wbrocks67]

Internal Domb campaign poll:

Rhynhart 21%
Gym 19%
Domb 17%
Parker 16%
Jeff Brown 13%
DeLeon 1%
Amen Brown 1%
Undecided 14%

https://twitter.com/nextphlmayor/status/1651712116733407232/photo/1