2023 Philadelphia mayoral election megathread

[Duke of York]

I think Brown is the favorite for now given how far ahead he is in the only poll we have so far.

[Duke of York]

I still think Jeff Brown or Allen Domb is likely going to win the primary.

[Duke of York]

I still think Jeff Brown or Allen Domb is likely going to win the primary.

I don't think Brown has a chance anymore. He has the money, but feels like he's been collapsing with his scandals and then not only the 76ers news but then his comments about Chester at the debate. It's one bad news cycle after another for him.

Domb doesn't really seem to be getting any traction. If I was to guess, I'd think we're now in a 3-way race between Parker, Gym, and Rhynhart.

If any of those three won the primary I'd be happy.

[Duke of York]

City Council leader Darryl Clarke has endorsed Cherelle Parker. Parker may actually be the frontrunner at this point. Funny because early on, she was my favorite. Would be amazing to have not just a woman, but a black woman as mayor. Some of her comments from the other night still don't sit well with me, but I still think she's a great option.

I'd be fine with her winning the primary. Has Philadelphia ever had a woman mayor?

[Duke of York]

City Council leader Darryl Clarke has endorsed Cherelle Parker. Parker may actually be the frontrunner at this point. Funny because early on, she was my favorite. Would be amazing to have not just a woman, but a black woman as mayor. Some of her comments from the other night still don't sit well with me, but I still think she's a great option.

I'd be fine with her winning the primary. Has Philadelphia ever had a woman mayor?

Nope! And it would certainly be fitting since this would be Philly's 100th mayor.

That would certainly make that milestone even more significant.

[Duke of York]

If I Had to guess where we are right now, I'd say maybe:

Parker: 25%
Rhynhart: 20%
Gym: 18%
Brown: 18%
Domb: 15%

The question with Gym is if she's been able to extend past her hardcore progressive base. Parker seems likely to solidify Amen Brown's supporters and likely some of Jeff Brown's, since he has imploded quite a bit. Rhynhart seems like a perennial dark horse, but still doesn't feel like she's had her "breakout" moment.

Id be happy with Parker,  Rhynhart or Gym winning but If I had to chose id say Parker.

[Duke of York]

Oh, and the FOP is apparently endorsing Brown which.... is not a good thing for him here lol.

White ethnic Philly would go for a Black mayor...they did it with Nutter....

DA Vega agrees that the FOP is a valuable endorsement.

FOP should stop making endorsements, they've lost credibility outside of white voters

Outside of *conservative white voters

True. Conservative and moderate white and Latino/Black moderates. Police unions shouldn't even be allowed to endorse

You cannot pick and chose who you allow to endorse.

[Duke of York]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

Yeah thats a turnoff for me. If I could vote in this election it would be a tossup between Parker and Rhynhart leaning towards Parker.

[Duke of York]

Rooting for Gym but I think that Rhynhart will have the edge here due to turnout differential. Her core voter demographics are the likeliest to vote in a (potentially) low turnout election.

Parker’s labor and machine support should give her good GOTV efforts as well.

Could be very wrong of course as haven’t lived in Philly for a while.

From what iv'e heard Gym doesn't seem to understand the office she's run for and is largely focusing on promising things the mayor has no authority to do.  I really hope she doesn't win.

[Duke of York]

Live coverage:
https://6abc.com/politics/elections/local/?year=2023

Should have speeches soon but Cherelle Parker hasn't claimed victory yet.

Edit to add: Cherelle Parker has claimed victory but won't make a speech tonight due to 'an emergency.' (Hope it's nothing serious)

that doesn't sound good.

[Duke of York]

https://6abc.com/philadelphia-mayor-pa-primary-2023-election-results-pennsylvania/13256184/

Parker said while voting she was suffering from allergies and and toothache. However her campaign has not said what that is. It doesn't sound good if she was unable to attend her celebration.

[Duke of York]

I assume Parker is the heavy favorite? Does Oh have any chance? I've heard rumors he might.

[Duke of York]

I assume Parker is the heavy favorite? Does Oh have any chance? I've heard rumors he might.

I expect Oh will both outperform the baseline (closest race since 2003) and lose heavily.

what percentage of the vote do you think he will get?

[Duke of York]

Who would’ve won the Democratic primary if runoffs were required in Philadelphia elections?

Parker still

What makes you think that?

[Duke of York]

I've seen a few in Center City, but literally only one spot where they clearly just threw some up since its near the highway.

I will say, the dynamics are interesting, because IMO, both candidates are near invisible. Maybe it's just because this is a coronation for Parker basically, but you basically hear nothing about either of them, which is technically worse for Oh, bc it means he's definitely not doing anything that will get him out of the usual 15-20% that GOP gets, but frankly Parker has been kind of lazy imo. I get that she knows she's going to win regardless, but it feels like shes doing the literal bare minimum in this race, which is also frustrating because now I wonder if turnout will even be anything special, which will have affects for the SC race as well.

I don't think any election should be taken for granted. Her not campaigning could very well lower turnout and cost Democrats the Supreme Court.

Totally dumb of her to run a skeleton campaign.

[Duke of York]

I've seen a few in Center City, but literally only one spot where they clearly just threw some up since its near the highway.

I will say, the dynamics are interesting, because IMO, both candidates are near invisible. Maybe it's just because this is a coronation for Parker basically, but you basically hear nothing about either of them, which is technically worse for Oh, bc it means he's definitely not doing anything that will get him out of the usual 15-20% that GOP gets, but frankly Parker has been kind of lazy imo. I get that she knows she's going to win regardless, but it feels like shes doing the literal bare minimum in this race, which is also frustrating because now I wonder if turnout will even be anything special, which will have affects for the SC race as well.

I don't think any election should be taken for granted. Her not campaigning could very well lower turnout and cost Democrats the Supreme Court.

Totally dumb of her to run a skeleton campaign.

Even though the Dems have had a long streak, there have been close elections. Have there been any polls? I haven't seen any.

Nope, literally none that I've seen lol. I guess pollsters figure why bother. That's the thing - like I said, as much as Parker seems to be taking this a bit for granted, Oh is just as invisible. He's broke and not really doing much either. There's not a lot of upset potential here at all.

No election should be taken for granted.

If I was in her position I'd be doing all I could to make turnout as high a possible due to the Supreme Court election. To win that race Democrats need high turnout in Philadelphia.

[Duke of York]

I was driving through North Wales (about 25 miles north of Philadelphia) the other day and saw a David Oh for Mayor sign. I haven't even seen one in Philadelphia proper.

They're everywhere in Chinatown.

The Asian gop swing continues

signs don't vote.

[Duke of York]

I've seen a few in Center City, but literally only one spot where they clearly just threw some up since its near the highway.

I will say, the dynamics are interesting, because IMO, both candidates are near invisible. Maybe it's just because this is a coronation for Parker basically, but you basically hear nothing about either of them, which is technically worse for Oh, bc it means he's definitely not doing anything that will get him out of the usual 15-20% that GOP gets, but frankly Parker has been kind of lazy imo. I get that she knows she's going to win regardless, but it feels like shes doing the literal bare minimum in this race, which is also frustrating because now I wonder if turnout will even be anything special, which will have affects for the SC race as well.

I don't think any election should be taken for granted. Her not campaigning could very well lower turnout and cost Democrats the Supreme Court.

Totally dumb of her to run a skeleton campaign.

Yeah, I really hope I'm wrong and maybe I've missed stuff and this is just vibes, but like, there's no signs anywhere (except for the big sign on Spring Garden Street from the SEIU who has endorsed her) and she seems to do just sparing appearances/campaign stops. There doesn't seem to be a big presence at all, like she's truly grinding this out day in and day out. Which sucks, because you would think there's an opportunity to have high turnout because she will be the first black woman mayor in our city's history - but there doesn't feel like there's any energy. Hoping I'm wrong though.

This is a disease that most establishment Democrats seem to have. I suspect it's that they think if a voter has to be persuaded, then they're such a bad person that they're not worth wasting energy on in the first place. I had really hoped that we'd left a lot of this behind after 2021, but it seems like there are a lot of holdouts. If the Democrats lose the Supreme Court, a lot of the blame could probably be placed here.

I find it very concerning Parker is taking this for granted and not making every effort to get the highest turnout possible.

[Duke of York]

With todays update:

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned -- 71.8% return rate
2022: 161,724 requested / 129,363 returned -- 80.0% return rate
2023: 106,346 requested / 39,054 returned -- 36.7% return rate (so far)

Those aren't great numbers at all for Philadelphia. Parker is making a big mistake not campaigning. It would help the judicial candidates but she doesn't seem to be thinking about that.

[Duke of York]

I think Oh's Chinatown support is real. It won't be monolithic but he's been actively running a campaign to cater to the kinds of moderate Democrats (and disproportionately also immigrants) who are upset with crime, sanitation issues (we have an infamously bad litter problem), cost of living, and to a lesser extent the Sixers stadium issue, though unlike in New York there doesn't seem to be a broader backlash to Democrats as a whole. Parker will dominate the black wards and will probably hold the kinds of affluent, historically Republican neighborhoods which last crossed over to vote for Katz in 1999 and 2003, which will be more than enough.

It really annoys me to hear she's taking the election for granted though. Yes she might be heavily favored but getting the highest turnout possible in the city would help in the judicial races. Parker doesn't seem to care about this.

[Duke of York]

Final count is in for requests, there was about 6,400 more this year than 2021 which is good. I'm pretty confident we should be able to surpass that 71.8% return rate this year, too.

2021: 103,223 requested / 74,139 returned — 71.8% return rate
2023: 109,669 requested / 60,683 returned — 55.3% return rate (so far)

Not bad. Election day might be higher. In 2019 about 291,000 voted.

[Duke of York]

Yep, the city council race was the final nail in the coffin.

Parker will likely end up with ~76% when all VBM are done counting, which is respectable, but still below typical D. I attribute almost of that to just her lack of a campaign.

and having a campaign would have helped the margins go even higher for judicial elections but wins are wins.