2023 Philadelphia mayoral election megathread

[VPH]

It's pretty crazy that we're entering March and we still have yet to have anyone with any sort of real momentum. Jeff Brown may technically be top in the polls purely bc he has spent the most money / has TV ads running. The rest of the field has yet to break out.

Gun to my head I think Gym's got the lead because of her ability to (likely, barring Rhynhart or Maria Quiñones-Sánchez or Derek Green surging) mop up white progressives with the rest of the field splitting White moderates, Hispanics, and the multiple blocs of Black voters. SixtySix Wards and that recent Inquirer article provide great breakdowns of the size of each major constituency. That said, major union endorsements help Brown and Parker, and the latter has strong support in higher-turnout Black NW wards. Going to be a super interesting race until the primary.

[VPH]

It's pretty crazy that we're entering March and we still have yet to have anyone with any sort of real momentum. Jeff Brown may technically be top in the polls purely bc he has spent the most money / has TV ads running. The rest of the field has yet to break out.

Gun to my head I think Gym's got the lead because of her ability to (likely, barring Rhynhart or Maria Quiñones-Sánchez or Derek Green surging) mop up white progressives with the rest of the field splitting White moderates, Hispanics, and the multiple blocs of Black voters. SixtySix Wards and that recent Inquirer article provide great breakdowns of the size of each major constituency. That said, major union endorsements help Brown and Parker, and the latter has strong support in higher-turnout Black NW wards. Going to be a super interesting race until the primary.

Agreed. I'd like to see Cherelle Parker break out at this point, but I feel like I see absolutely nothing about her in terms of visibility in this race. Then again, I feel like even Gym has been barely visible lately too (and especially Rynhardt)

Rhynhart is probably most visible on Reddit tbh. I have no doubt she would be a fantastic Mayor but I don't see her pulling ahead of the pack. I think once wards start making endorsements that'll give us a better indication of who's in the lead.

[VPH]

I think Oh could make it competitive if Gym is the nominee.

Even being the best possible GOPer in Philly, Oh likely wouldn't surpass ~37% against Gym. Peruto (an admittedly bad candidate) maxed out the margins with blue-collar White voters and performed okay with Latinos against Larry freaking Krasner and still ended with 31%. I can't see Oh winning enough Black voters and wealthy liberal White voters over to get him to a win, let alone 40%.

[VPH]

Rhynhart's stock is up big and I think that comes at the expense of both Allan Domb and Helen Gym, the two main candidates whose bases are largely White college voters (the former focusing on moderates and the latter progressives). Rhynhart's reformist background and willingness to take on PPD help her with the left, and her fiscal moderation/business background help her with the more moderate good-government voters.

Yet I can't help but think they're all trading White college voters while Cherelle Parker is growing her presence among the establishment (see her labor support) and working-class Black voters. Together, this would be a large enough group for Parker to win, especially if Jeff Brown falters. But Derek Green might dig into her Northwest Coalition base because he's also from the same neighborhood and Jeff Brown's been all over the airwaves and also enjoys strong union backing.

And then there's the big question mark around Northeast Philadelphia--there are a lot of blue-collar White and Latino voters there who could make a difference. Will they go for Allan Domb, one of the more moderate candidates? Or Jeff Brown? Will Latinos break for MQS, who is running Spanish language ads? Or heck, will FOP members come out in support of the very vocally anti-Krasner Amen Brown?

It still feels like an open race and it's a shame the only polling we have is from Jeff Brown's campaign (pre-gaffe). At the end of the day, ward endorsements are going to matter. What Philly Democrats see on their sample ballots could well translate into a victory.

[VPH]

Turns out Cherelle Parker has been racking up ward endorsements in the blue-collar Northeast!

https://billypenn.com/2023/04/04/cherelle-parker-mayor-endorsements-democratic-party-officials/?utm_campaign=sproutsocial&utm_content=1680620469&utm_medium=post&utm_source=twitter

[VPH]

Derek Green has dropped out.

Unfortunate that Green didn't catch on because he was one of the best candidates in the race. Hopefully he runs for DA when that office comes up for a vote.

[VPH]

Fascinating poll. Basically, the major candidates' bases (where they're strongest) are:
Rhynhart: Wealthy college-educated liberals
Parker: Middle-aged to older Black voters, mostly working-class
Domb: Blue-collar moderates
Gym: Younger White liberals and progressives
Brown: A rather diverse coalition of minority voters (notwithstanding the FOP endorsement apparently)

[VPH]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

Yeah thats a turnoff for me. If I could vote in this election it would be a tossup between Parker and Rhynhart leaning towards Parker.

It's really hard to tell who has the momentum. Parker just secured some more endorsements, but the poll kinda shocked me that even the stuff she had before was only getting her to 16-17%. Gym just locked up AOC/Bernie but again, idk how much of a ceiling she really has. Rhynhart was barely in the lead, but I also don't know how much inroad she's making with the non-white liberal vote.

Yeah, the poll clarified a little on the margins but it's hard to know. And Jeff Brown's campaign continues to collapse, with his loss of the sanitation worker endorsement to Parker. She also picked up MQS' backing, which should help in Latino parts of town. Top four are going to be close, and I think this will be the breakdown:
1. Parker wins in the end, carrying nearly all the majority-Black and Latino wards but not by huge margins outside of the NW. And she does decent in NE Philly with ward endorsements and organized labor coming through for her. 27%
2. Rhynhart in second place carried by Center City, Society Hill, Chestnut Hill, Grad Hospital, and some of the other wealthy pockets of town. 23%
3. Gym third, winning the left-wing parts of West Philly, Fishtown, and a few other progressive hubs (maybe parts of Manayunk? Maybe Germantown?). She also probably gets a handful of votes elsewhere from left-wingers and teacher's union types. 19%
4. Domb fourth, prevailing in much of the Northeast (especially the Far Northeast and some of the Riverwards) and shrinking blue-collar South Philly but not by large enough margins to win. 19%
5. Jeff Brown fifth, not winning any wards but with a non-negligible % in Black neighborhoods. 8%
6. Beyond that, nobody gets much of the vote but Amen Brown could win 5-7% in his district. Other: 4%

[VPH]

I *highly* doubt that Gym and Rhynhart are both going to be ahead of Parker. Ofc, things can shift quickly and I may be proven wrong but neither has caught on much in the Black community if endorsements and the one public poll we have are to be believed. Also if a Gym internal doesn't show her with a real lead she's probably not leading...

[VPH]

Two canvassers for OnePa, one of the key progressive organizing groups in town, got into a shootout that led to one tragically dying. One of the guns was illegal too.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philly-gun-violence-onepa-shooting-homicide-20230508.html

[VPH]

This poll is more believable than the Gym internal and paints a good picture for her as well. Starting to be afraid she will win, but I still think Parker has an e-day advantage with the unions and wards pushing sample ballots with her name on them and strong GOTV efforts.

That said there are a few weird crosstabs like Gym being up big with Latino voters (sample size of around 50 on that group). Doesn't jive at all with the Committee of 70 poll on that front.

[VPH]

Parker will be the next mayor.

Oh has no chance. He's not a Giuliani/Riordan/Schundler type who can appeal to Democrats.

Congratulations Mayor Parker. Now get to work.

Huh? Oh is a paradigmatic centrist GOPer who could appeal to Democrats. He did enough of it to survive the WFP effort last election, and was able to garner some endorsements from Dem-leaning unions in 2019. He has been moderate on Council too, introducing a police training bill and doing a lot to support the arts as well as veterans. But that doesn’t mean Oh has a snowball’s chance in hell of even getting 40% versus Parker, credible as he may be. My guess? He wins like 23%, which is respectable for a Republican in this city these days.

[VPH]

Pretty sure that is not actually a city councilman