2023 Philadelphia mayoral election megathread

[Suburbia]

Philadelphia will be electing a new mayor this year after 8 years of Jim Kenney at the helm. The city is overwhelmingly Democratic so the Democratic primary is likely to be the general election, with Republicans most likely putting up a lamb.

Who is the favorite to succeed Kenney? What are their plans?

[Suburbia]

It's pretty crazy that we're entering March and we still have yet to have anyone with any sort of real momentum. Jeff Brown may technically be top in the polls purely bc he has spent the most money / has TV ads running. The rest of the field has yet to break out.

Gun to my head I think Gym's got the lead because of her ability to (likely, barring Rhynhart or Maria Quiñones-Sánchez or Derek Green surging) mop up white progressives with the rest of the field splitting White moderates, Hispanics, and the multiple blocs of Black voters. SixtySix Wards and that recent Inquirer article provide great breakdowns of the size of each major constituency. That said, major union endorsements help Brown and Parker, and the latter has strong support in higher-turnout Black NW wards. Going to be a super interesting race until the primary.

Thaks for discussing the Ward website.....shows the areas where Republicans do well in Philadelphia, etc.

https://jtannen.shinyapps.io/wardportal/

[Suburbia]

I think Oh could make it competitive if Gym is the nominee.

Even being the best possible GOPer in Philly, Oh likely wouldn't surpass ~37% against Gym. Peruto (an admittedly bad candidate) maxed out the margins with blue-collar White voters and performed okay with Latinos against Larry freaking Krasner and still ended with 31%. I can't see Oh winning enough Black voters and wealthy liberal White voters over to get him to a win, let alone 40%.

This. An Asian Republican is not winning in a predominately Black city.................

[Suburbia]

Whoever is the moderate/Conservative candidate should learn from Vallas/Caruso. It's not enough to win like that. You have to be like Eric Adams. He has black progressive support and moderate support at the same time.

[Suburbia]

Whoever is the moderate/Conservative candidate should learn from Vallas/Caruso. It's not enough to win like that. You have to be like Eric Adams. He has black progressive support and moderate support at the same time.

Interesting because you'd think with so many candidates, there would be one conserva-dem in the mix, but it doesn't seem that way. Parker may be the closest thing, in that she's not as die hard progressive as someone like Gym, but she's still extremely liberal.

I'm surprised that Parker is doing well in a white ethnic areas, you'd never see it in Staten Island.

[Suburbia]

Oh, and the FOP is apparently endorsing Brown which.... is not a good thing for him here lol.

White ethnic Philly would go for a Black mayor...they did it with Nutter....

[Suburbia]

Oh, and the FOP is apparently endorsing Brown which.... is not a good thing for him here lol.

White ethnic Philly would go for a Black mayor...they did it with Nutter....

DA Vega agrees that the FOP is a valuable endorsement.

FOP should stop making endorsements, they've lost credibility outside of white voters

[Suburbia]

Oh, and the FOP is apparently endorsing Brown which.... is not a good thing for him here lol.

White ethnic Philly would go for a Black mayor...they did it with Nutter....

DA Vega agrees that the FOP is a valuable endorsement.

FOP should stop making endorsements, they've lost credibility outside of white voters

Outside of *conservative white voters

True. Conservative and moderate white and Latino/Black moderates. Police unions shouldn't even be allowed to endorse

[Suburbia]

Parker will be the next mayor.

Oh has no chance. He's not a Giuliani/Riordan/Schundler type who can appeal to Democrats.

Congratulations Mayor Parker. Now get to work.

[Suburbia]

Parker will be the next mayor.

Oh has no chance. He's not a Giuliani/Riordan/Schundler type who can appeal to Democrats.

Congratulations Mayor Parker. Now get to work.

Huh? Oh is a paradigmatic centrist GOPer who could appeal to Democrats. He did enough of it to survive the WFP effort last election, and was able to garner some endorsements from Dem-leaning unions in 2019. He has been moderate on Council too, introducing a police training bill and doing a lot to support the arts as well as veterans. But that doesn’t mean Oh has a snowball’s chance in hell of even getting 40% versus Parker, credible as he may be. My guess? He wins like 23%, which is respectable for a Republican in this city these days.

True. If Oh faced off against Krasner, he would of had a chance.