2023 Philadelphia mayoral election megathread

[wbrocks67]

First nonpartisan poll from SurveyUSA!

With leaners:

Rhynhart 19%
Parker 17%
Gym 16%
Domb 15%
Jeff Brown 12%
DeLeon/Amen Brown/Bloom 2% each

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=25ef4518-2905-426f-8cd0-ce19aa81acb0

In the full results, 20%(!) are still undecided. With these margins, it is quite literally anyone's race to win.

Yep, and it also depends on turnout too. Parker leads with black and hispanic voters, so if they have a bit of a turnout surge, she could move ahead. Likewise, if their turnout falls off a cliff, she's likely cooked, since she does poorly with White voters.

Meanwhile, Rhynhart and Gym splitting the liberal vote expectedly. Though, I'm shocked to see Rhynhart leading with young voters. It's not by much, but I expected Gym to decently be ahead with that group.

[VPH]

Fascinating poll. Basically, the major candidates' bases (where they're strongest) are:
Rhynhart: Wealthy college-educated liberals
Parker: Middle-aged to older Black voters, mostly working-class
Domb: Blue-collar moderates
Gym: Younger White liberals and progressives
Brown: A rather diverse coalition of minority voters (notwithstanding the FOP endorsement apparently)

[Babeuf]

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/bernie-sanders-helen-gym-2023-philadelphia-mayor-20230503.html?outputType=amp

Unsurprising, but Gym got a Bernie endorsement (AOC endorsed her a few days ago).

[wbrocks67]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

[Duke of York]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

Yeah thats a turnoff for me. If I could vote in this election it would be a tossup between Parker and Rhynhart leaning towards Parker.

[wbrocks67]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

Yeah thats a turnoff for me. If I could vote in this election it would be a tossup between Parker and Rhynhart leaning towards Parker.

It's really hard to tell who has the momentum. Parker just secured some more endorsements, but the poll kinda shocked me that even the stuff she had before was only getting her to 16-17%. Gym just locked up AOC/Bernie but again, idk how much of a ceiling she really has. Rhynhart was barely in the lead, but I also don't know how much inroad she's making with the non-white liberal vote.

[VPH]

Can't wait for this primary to be over. Not only do many people have Helen Gym-derangement syndrome, but on the other end, now Gym supporters are constantly attacking other people, especially Parker and Rhynhart supporters. It's just a total mess.

Yeah thats a turnoff for me. If I could vote in this election it would be a tossup between Parker and Rhynhart leaning towards Parker.

It's really hard to tell who has the momentum. Parker just secured some more endorsements, but the poll kinda shocked me that even the stuff she had before was only getting her to 16-17%. Gym just locked up AOC/Bernie but again, idk how much of a ceiling she really has. Rhynhart was barely in the lead, but I also don't know how much inroad she's making with the non-white liberal vote.

Yeah, the poll clarified a little on the margins but it's hard to know. And Jeff Brown's campaign continues to collapse, with his loss of the sanitation worker endorsement to Parker. She also picked up MQS' backing, which should help in Latino parts of town. Top four are going to be close, and I think this will be the breakdown:
1. Parker wins in the end, carrying nearly all the majority-Black and Latino wards but not by huge margins outside of the NW. And she does decent in NE Philly with ward endorsements and organized labor coming through for her. 27%
2. Rhynhart in second place carried by Center City, Society Hill, Chestnut Hill, Grad Hospital, and some of the other wealthy pockets of town. 23%
3. Gym third, winning the left-wing parts of West Philly, Fishtown, and a few other progressive hubs (maybe parts of Manayunk? Maybe Germantown?). She also probably gets a handful of votes elsewhere from left-wingers and teacher's union types. 19%
4. Domb fourth, prevailing in much of the Northeast (especially the Far Northeast and some of the Riverwards) and shrinking blue-collar South Philly but not by large enough margins to win. 19%
5. Jeff Brown fifth, not winning any wards but with a non-negligible % in Black neighborhoods. 8%
6. Beyond that, nobody gets much of the vote but Amen Brown could win 5-7% in his district. Other: 4%

[wbrocks67]

McPhillips is Gym's campaign manager and D4P was Fetterman's internal pollster, so I'm assuming this is a Gym internal

https://twitter.com/BrendanMcP/status/1654463837398073346

[Lambsbread]

McPhillips is Gym's campaign manager and D4P was Fetterman's internal pollster, so I'm assuming this is a Gym internal

https://twitter.com/BrendanMcP/status/1654463837398073346

Big grain of salt but this is encouraging. I'd be happy with any of these top 3 winning.

[VPH]

I *highly* doubt that Gym and Rhynhart are both going to be ahead of Parker. Ofc, things can shift quickly and I may be proven wrong but neither has caught on much in the Black community if endorsements and the one public poll we have are to be believed. Also if a Gym internal doesn't show her with a real lead she's probably not leading...

[wbrocks67]

I *highly* doubt that Gym and Rhynhart are both going to be ahead of Parker. Ofc, things can shift quickly and I may be proven wrong but neither has caught on much in the Black community if endorsements and the one public poll we have are to be believed. Also if a Gym internal doesn't show her with a real lead she's probably not leading...

Yeah, given that it's a Gym internal I would not be surprised if it was actually something like Rhynart 21%, Parker 19%, Gym 17%, etc. Rhynhart has led in every recent poll now.

[wbrocks67]

Rhynhart led the most recent fundraising report

Rhynhart $699K
Parker $519K
Brown $481K
Gym $379K
Domb $293K

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/mayors-race-campaign-finance-most-expensive-election-domb-rhynhart-20230506.html

[VPH]

Two canvassers for OnePa, one of the key progressive organizing groups in town, got into a shootout that led to one tragically dying. One of the guns was illegal too.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philly-gun-violence-onepa-shooting-homicide-20230508.html

[Lambsbread]

Two canvassers for OnePa, one of the key progressive organizing groups in town, got into a shootout that led to one tragically dying. One of the guns was illegal too.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philly-gun-violence-onepa-shooting-homicide-20230508.html

Good god that's upsetting. This seems like it was purely personal, but it's so emblematic of the gun issue as a whole...so tragic.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout looks like it may actually be pretty good - there's more requested mail ballots than the 2022 primary in Philly

[wbrocks67]

Emerson out with new poll:

Without leaners:
Gym 21%
Parker 18%
Rhynhart 18%
Domb 14%
Brown 10%

With leaners:
Gym 23%
Parker 21%
Rhynhart 20%
Domb 17%

Fav:
Rhynhart 60/20 (+40)
Parker 51/31 (+20)
Domb 47/36 (+11)
Gym 45/36 (+9)
Brown 35/39 (-4)

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/philadelphia-2023-mayoral-race-in-dead-heat-gym-parker-rhynhart-domb-scramble-in-crowded-field/

Confirms that Brown is very hated, unsurprisingly. Also that Gym has a clear ceiling, and Rhynhart is likely a lot of peoples second choice.

[VPH]

This poll is more believable than the Gym internal and paints a good picture for her as well. Starting to be afraid she will win, but I still think Parker has an e-day advantage with the unions and wards pushing sample ballots with her name on them and strong GOTV efforts.

That said there are a few weird crosstabs like Gym being up big with Latino voters (sample size of around 50 on that group). Doesn't jive at all with the Committee of 70 poll on that front.

[wbrocks67]

Still have no idea what will happen tomorrow. Rhynhart's fantastic fav #s could help her win the last undecideds, but Gym and Parker are also just as in this.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Emerson out with new poll:

Without leaners:
Gym 21%
Parker 18%
Rhynhart 18%
Domb 14%
Brown 10%

With leaners:
Gym 23%
Parker 21%
Rhynhart 20%
Domb 17%

Fav:
Rhynhart 60/20 (+40)
Parker 51/31 (+20)
Domb 47/36 (+11)
Gym 45/36 (+9)
Brown 35/39 (-4)

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/philadelphia-2023-mayoral-race-in-dead-heat-gym-parker-rhynhart-domb-scramble-in-crowded-field/

Confirms that Brown is very hated, unsurprisingly. Also that Gym has a clear ceiling, and Rhynhart is likely a lot of peoples second choice.

Interesting considering I feel like I see more Domb ads than any other candidate by far!

[wbrocks67]

Emerson out with new poll:

Without leaners:
Gym 21%
Parker 18%
Rhynhart 18%
Domb 14%
Brown 10%

With leaners:
Gym 23%
Parker 21%
Rhynhart 20%
Domb 17%

Fav:
Rhynhart 60/20 (+40)
Parker 51/31 (+20)
Domb 47/36 (+11)
Gym 45/36 (+9)
Brown 35/39 (-4)

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/philadelphia-2023-mayoral-race-in-dead-heat-gym-parker-rhynhart-domb-scramble-in-crowded-field/

Confirms that Brown is very hated, unsurprisingly. Also that Gym has a clear ceiling, and Rhynhart is likely a lot of peoples second choice.

Interesting considering I feel like I see more Domb ads than any other candidate by far!

Makes sense since it seems he's spending the most. The thing with Domb is that he still can't seem to get out of 4th place despite dumping like $10M of his own money into this thing

[Babeuf]

Rooting for Gym but I think that Rhynhart will have the edge here due to turnout differential. Her core voter demographics are the likeliest to vote in a (potentially) low turnout election.

Parker’s labor and machine support should give her good GOTV efforts as well.

Could be very wrong of course as haven’t lived in Philly for a while.

[Duke of York]

Rooting for Gym but I think that Rhynhart will have the edge here due to turnout differential. Her core voter demographics are the likeliest to vote in a (potentially) low turnout election.

Parker’s labor and machine support should give her good GOTV efforts as well.

Could be very wrong of course as haven’t lived in Philly for a while.

From what iv'e heard Gym doesn't seem to understand the office she's run for and is largely focusing on promising things the mayor has no authority to do.  I really hope she doesn't win.

[wbrocks67]

Rooting for Gym but I think that Rhynhart will have the edge here due to turnout differential. Her core voter demographics are the likeliest to vote in a (potentially) low turnout election.

Parker’s labor and machine support should give her good GOTV efforts as well.

Could be very wrong of course as haven’t lived in Philly for a while.

Yeah it's hard, you could very plausibly make a very good case for all 3 of them.

Rhynhart I think will need some Domb voters to also give up on him and go to her, sensing he doesn't have a chance really. That could be a big factor as well.

[wbrocks67]

I also kind of resent the fact that the national media is making this a thing where Gym is the only progressive in this race. Yeah, I get that Bernie and AOC lining up behind her kind of gives her that mantle, but it's not as cut and dry as they're making it. Rhynhart is also extremely progressive as well. (IMO, more of a "pragmatic progressive" which doesn't get the splashy headlines)

[Lambsbread]

Yeah anyone's guess here is as good as mine. I think if I lived in Philly and they had RCV, I'd go Gym, then Parker, then Rhynhart. I'd be happy with any of them winning.

My absolute GUESS, though, is that things might end looking like this:

Gym - 22.9%
Parker - 22.5%
Rhynhart - 21.8%
Brown - 15%
Domb - 14%