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Author Topic: 🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections  (Read 33943 times)
oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« on: January 22, 2023, 01:21:16 PM »

This is a thread that I have to comment on.

1st. The view among greeks is that their opinion polls are never to be trusted until 2 weeks till election day.

2nd. Turnout is going to be another record low, due to a combination of emmigration and immigration and political stagnation.

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

6th. The only legal money that exists comes from the EU funds, Tourism, and the Government. Almost every legal economic activity depends on the government and why control of it is so important to the local oligarchs and organized crime figures.
.
7th. The combination of all the above means that the electorate is very old, very urban, very establishment that spends most of it's time arguing over the civil war, with a very small youth counter-culture that's becoming quite nihilist.

Over the specific question about coalition partners:

ND have only got the Greek Solution, the leader of that party was a reject member of them and has numerous troubles with the law because he is a literal and real snakeoil salesman of miracle cures, he is only free as long as the government tolerates him.

On the long run I would look to Portugal for any Greek developments: similar size, similar politics, similar economy, equally badly run by what I read on the Portugal thread.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2023, 09:06:14 AM »

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

Would you mind expounding on these points? Thank you in advance Smiley

On point 3.
I think it has been mentioned in other threads too that eastern europeans particularly rural ones lean neo-nazi, so it's a common perception.

Now about 1922.
Greece fought wars for almost 10 years in 1912-1922 with a catastrophic defeat in the end.
The territory shrank by 1/5th while the population rose by 40%.
As a result there was not enough resources or land for everyone, someone had to go, this is how it played:

Refugees from Asia Minor had lost all their property in the war and had a different culture, so they were easily stigmatised by the locals who treated them very badly, so those refugees turned to Marxism as an excuse to confiscate the property of the locals.

In reaction the locals turned to Fascism simply because they needed an excuse to exterminate the Marxists who were after their property.

WW2 provided all the weapons needed for the giant massacre and attempts to exterminate each other. In the end the Asian Minor Refugees lost thanks to Anglo-American military aid to the Fascists, millions were expelled, displaced, and killed, a milder version of the Rwandan Genocide.

The desolation forced most of the survivors to move to the capital for foreign food aid and hopes of a government job, the lucky ones left to America and Australia.

The result of high urbanization greated a surging left that threatened the old order, the suspension of democracy was their last hope, but it failed, the exiles returned and the left got control in 1981.

It is a textbook case of tribal warfare using little understood ideology as a legal excuse for it's crimes.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2023, 09:30:01 AM »

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

Would you mind expounding on these points? Thank you in advance Smiley
On point 4.

About 10% of the population are millionaires, they are the owner class, they have no reason to emigrate or send their children away.

Another 10% of the population are civil servants, they comprise most of the middle class, they are wealthy enough to support the emigration costs of their children, so most of them leave.

The rest of the local population is usually too poor to cover the emigration costs, but most of them don't have any children anyway apart from the gypsies.

Immigrants still have large families because living conditions are still an improvement compared to their previous country, but they send most their kids to better european countries.

So the profile of young people in Greece is both ends of the income spectrum, they are either rich locals or poor immigrants with very little in the middle.

Basically the ones that own the Bar and the ones who serve at the Bar.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2023, 10:07:57 AM »

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

Would you mind expounding on these points? Thank you in advance Smiley
On point 5.

Greece had once strong parties with a strong vibrant economy (unemployment was 2% in 1980), with more european intergration the economy faltered because Greece is too small to compete in the european market, the weaker economy led to weaker parties who became more personality driven.

As unemployment continued to rise Oligarchs had more sway among the increasignly desperate population, weakening public finances also meant a weaker state, a weaker state meant greater power for the Oligarchs who made the state even weaker.

In the end the economy became too weak to support the Oligarchs, most of them went bankrupt in the early 2010's, in their place Organised Crime took over running things mostly on a local level. Some malicious tongues say that specific local mafia bosses run some specific large municipalities that provide them with immunity, some say even the FBI tried but failed to catch them, some say they have a very very keen interest in football in a specific english town famous for it's sheriffs. Malicious tongues of course.

The economy though has become too weak to even support Organised Crime, so Disorganised Crime is on the rise with lots of assasinations, as gangs break up and new ones form in responce to the ever weakening state and economy.

It's really like a Bulgaria on reverse, I say Greece of 2023 is like Bulgaria 2007'ish though the Bulgarian thread might provide better imformation for a comparison.

It's not as bad as central america, but most greeks do compare their country to 1980's Colombia, to the point that TV shows about Escobar were popular a few years ago.

It will take a very real economic recovery to break the tail spiral, just like it did in Bulgaria.
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oldtimer
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Greece


« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2023, 01:05:01 PM »

There has been a serious electoral development, the main center-left party SYRIZA is in internal crisis after the purge of it's most popular and vocal MP over his allegations that the greek judiciary is corrupt.

An own goal by Tsipras really, corruption in the greek judiciary is so widely perceived that has even been used internationally to refuse legal extraditions to Greece in some occasions.

By purging the MP who made those allegations he invites critisism that he himself is corrupt, just before an election.

However there is also the perception that he had no choice, after the government passed an amendment to the electoral law allowing it to ban political parties, opposition parties are now on their toes not to give a pretext to be banned.

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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2023, 06:59:51 PM »

There has been a serious electoral development, the main center-left party SYRIZA is in internal crisis after the purge of it's most popular and vocal MP over his allegations that the greek judiciary is corrupt.

An own goal by Tsipras really, corruption in the greek judiciary is so widely perceived that has even been used internationally to refuse legal extraditions to Greece in some occasions.

By purging the MP who made those allegations he invites critisism that he himself is corrupt, just before an election.

However there is also the perception that he had no choice, after the government passed an amendment to the electoral law allowing it to ban political parties, opposition parties are now on their toes not to give a pretext to be banned.

That seems uh. A bit concerning. Is Mitsotakis trying to go full Orban?
He probably wishes.

I have never seen a greek government this desperate for re-election since 1989.

He has literally thrown the kitchen sink: another minimum wage increase (the 3rd in a year), pension increases, food ration coupons,  all in the last few weeks.

And of course the efforts to spy on the opposition, the new electoral law and the new amendment to it.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2023, 07:21:44 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2023, 09:02:21 PM by oldtimer »

The National Party – Greeks, which is the direct descendent of Golden Dawn, has been banned from running in the elections, under this new law.
That is true.

He wanted to kick them out for 2 reasons:
1st. They where siphoning votes from him.
2nd. To lower the majority threshold under his new electoral law.

However the provisions of the amendment are so vague that all other opposition parties except PASOK saw it as a threat to ban them too in the future, and voted against the notion that the government by simple majority can have the power to ban parties.

I could also be more specific like you Mike88 on your Portugal thread, but there are so many allegations and scandals printed in the greek press that one becomes insensitive to them all.

The summary is that if those press allegations are accurate then Mitsotakis is the modern version of Caligula, but it's difficult to know what's true or not.

Especially after the arrest in Dec. 2021 of the Vice President of the Greek Supreme Court  who was a personal friend of the current Greek President, in the act of selling hard drugs to small boys in exchange for gay sex, the greek press got a big scalp as they where alleging it for quite some time.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1172990/senior-judge-charged-with-drugs-related-offencesdrugs/

Greek scandals are usually the best, the 1988-89 ones and 2005-09 ones where Hollywood material.
I can post the published details for historical research if you like but some might be for ages 18+ only, because they involve lots of sex and money in the most ridiculous circumstances.

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oldtimer
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Greece


« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2023, 02:52:49 PM »
« Edited: February 28, 2023, 08:17:49 PM by oldtimer »

Feel free to share some details of those "stories". I would like to know some of them. Also, how is Tsipras viewed nowadays by public opinion? From what I'm aware he's a bit toxic and a problem for Syriza. If he loses this year, do you think he would resign from the leadership? And, do you think Syriza is now solid as a rock as the alternative party to ND?
Tsipras has one big problem, he has already been PM for 4 years, he was tried and rejected by voters.

His public image is bad because he is perceived if I paraphrase:
"As a cynical unprincipled gambler who has no more regard for his friends than his enemies."

However he will probably remain leader of his party until he dies because he always purges anyone who outshines him, friend or foe, and parties in Greece are weak as long as leaders choose the lists.

And he will hope that one day the New Democrats are short of a majority and PASOK prefers them as coalition partners (it could have happened this year, but I don't think so anymore).

SYRIZA will always get at least 25% as long as Anatolian, Cretan and Turkish tribes think it represents their tribal economic interest (Politics in Greece is highly tribal).



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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2023, 03:48:16 PM »
« Edited: February 28, 2023, 04:08:09 PM by oldtimer »

As of historical greek scandals the oldest juicy one is the Koskota Scandal of 1987-89.

Here is the summary of a scandal filled with sex and money:
Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2023, 07:10:15 PM »

An Act of God has just occured in Greece.

On the day that the opposition was reeling in internal strife and the government was ready to announce elections, 2 trains carrying 350 people collided head on at hight speed.

The greatest man-made tragedy in Greece since the Sinking of the Samina in 2000.

The Greek rail-network was always in a bad shape and deteriorated rapidly after the EU-IMF team demanded severe cuts in services and maintenance during the Bailouts (just look at a map of european railways to see how small it currently is).

Everyone was warning that a disaster was bound to happen, however SYRIZA was in charge of it's privatization to the Italian State Railways in 2017.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2023, 07:12:39 PM »

SYRIZA will always get at least 25% as long as Anatolian, Cretan and Turkish tribes think it represents their tribal economic interest (Politics in Greece is highly tribal).
Could you please expound on this? Sounds fascinating.
I basically expounded it in one of my earlier comments on Page 1.

I just used the term Anatolians rather than Asian Minors.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2023, 07:29:40 PM »

SYRIZA will always get at least 25% as long as Anatolian, Cretan and Turkish tribes think it represents their tribal economic interest (Politics in Greece is highly tribal).
Could you please expound on this? Sounds fascinating.
I basically expounded it in one of my earlier comments on Page 1.

I just used the term Anatolians rather than Asian Minors.
I read it with much interest, but was left with more questions. Where are these various groups located geographically in Greece, nowadays?
You can guess by looking at the greek election maps.

Those with Anatolian, Cretan, and Turkish heritage vote left.
Those with Old Greek, Italian, and Slavic heritage vote right.

But right now I'm preoccupied with the large tragedy that just occured.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2023, 06:32:16 PM »

Sounds like the current Greek government is getting raked over the coals over its handling of the tragic train crash disaster. I wonder what impact this could have on the election, if any
The closer the election is to the disaster the bigger the impact.

All 3 main parties have governed lately and share the blame, so it probably won't be a straight move from the government to the mainstream opposition.

If this isn't the issue that breaks the camel''s back, and the election is in 2-3 months from now then it will be forgotten.

Before the disaster I was fully convinced that the ND would win on the basis of a divided, demoralized, and partly banned, opposition.
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oldtimer
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Greece


« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2023, 03:09:03 PM »

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"
Tsipras is uniquely weak because of his bad governing record.

If there is going to be movement it will come from small, probably extraparliamentary parties.
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oldtimer
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Greece


« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2023, 03:21:21 PM »

A question for our Greek posters:

One thing I found out about pre-2010 crisis Greek politics and elections was the amazing capacity of ND and PASOK of creating and managing spectacular and massive campaign rallies. I found the 1993 final rallies of ND and PASOK:





There are also videos from 1985, 1989, 2000 and 2009, with massive, massive rallies, specially Papandreou's 1985 ones. I have one question: the two parties had to bring a lot of people from all over the country to fill the streets of the main cities full of party supporters, right? The logistic operation had to be massive.
Mass Politics and Entertainment are the same thing.

Papandreou always used to end his rallies with Carmina Burana o Fortuna to give a Hollywood Epicness to his speeches. Trump's musical encore is lame compared to that.

People also used to participate more, because they expected more from governments.
These days they have low expectations, so participation is also low.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2023, 03:31:56 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2023, 03:36:27 PM by oldtimer »

Is there any internal opposition to Tsipras? Will this probably be his last election, assuming ND wins?
Tsipras always purges anyone who outshines him from his own party, regardless of them being friends or enemies.

Jokingly he's like Stalin with a boyish face.

His calculations are entirely cynical and self serving.
That as long as he is alive and purges anyone who could be a credible threat to his leadership, he can remain Leader and get the 25-30% from the left wing tribes, and hope that ND at some point fails to form a government in the next 30-40 years.
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oldtimer
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #16 on: March 10, 2023, 07:41:03 PM »

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

I never said anything about the train disaster? Read my post again.

I didn't say you talked about the train disaster. I just pointing out the fact that in this campaign, the lack of planning, investements and failure to deliver policies will be a big issue and Tsipras and Syriza have a lot of blame, just like ND, for all of the problems that Greece faces. The complicated past of Syriza will always be an issue for them, just like oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon posted above.

Also, it seems that Varoufakis was assaulted this evening at a restaurant in Athens. A group of people invaded the restaurant and shouted and accused Varoufakis of signing the Troika rescue packages to Greece. Varoufakis was left with a broken nose.


All greek parliamentary party leaders are unpopular for a variety of reasons.

It is said that Varoufakis only founded his party in 2018 to gain parliamentary immunity out of fear the incoming ND government would prosecute him over his incompetence as finance minister in 2015, but instead they seem to tolerate him as an embarrassment for the left.

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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2023, 01:58:09 PM »

Papandreou always used to end his rallies with Carmina Burana o Fortuna to give a Hollywood Epicness to his speeches.
Bro treating his campaign rallies like a 7th grader on iMovie
To be fair he wanted the millions of people in his rallies (and those watching on TV) to feel that it was more than just a rally, but an epic historical moment.

Trump also did that successfully I believe on his 2016 election night victory speech intro, you can feel the vibes from that soundtrack:



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oldtimer
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2023, 11:13:08 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2023, 11:23:33 PM by oldtimer »

Can anyone explain what ideological difference there is (if any) between Syriza and Pasok? I know that Syriza was formed as a leftwing protest against Pasok's austerity measures when the Greek economy collapsed ten years ago - but then when Syriza took power they seemed to have evolved into more of a moderate centre left party indistinguishable from the old Pasok  - so why don't they just merge? or is now all just personal rivalries and resentments?
Small history lesson.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



As to why don't PASOK and SYRIZA merge the answer is easy, SYRIZA has a smaller party membership, so Tsipras would lose his position as party leader.
And God knows what he has done to claim and retain it.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2023, 11:24:53 PM »

Such a weird position to be in where voters are heading into an election with the expectation that it won't really matter, just sort of getting it out of the way to move onto the second election which has different rules.
It's like a european parliament election.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2023, 08:24:59 PM »

There have been some developments over the past few days.

1. The opinion polls have converged to a picture where a center-left coalition might just be possible in the 1st election, and a center-right coalition might not be possible in a 2nd election.

Both outcomes are currently right on the edge.

2. Pro-government pundits have taken a softer turn on the opposition, they always lick the boots of anyone who's in charge for a living, so they also think a change in government is possible.

3. PASOK for the first time has opened the possibility of a center-left coalition with SYRIZA.

4. Tsipras for the first time has un-purged someone, that popular MP of his that he purged for daring to suggest that the greek justice system is corrupt, that suggests he is no longer afraid of a government ban on SYRIZA.

Indeed the opposition in general looks more active and no longer in hiding, they feel the government is weak and they are pouncing.
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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2023, 10:38:37 AM »
« Edited: April 02, 2023, 10:43:09 AM by oldtimer »

Summary of Week 1 of the Election Campaign

Government moves:

The greek government alleges it has arrested 2 pakistanis, that were hired by Iran to attack a synagogue in Athens.

I write "alleges" because all crime reporters have cast serious doubts on those claims, due to the lack of guns, explosives, motives, members, money, organizational structure ect.

The government also publised that a senior member of SYRIZA took large preferrencial mortgages to buy a luxury villa, after the opposition published that a Deputy Minister tried to hide his questionable bank loans.

Opposition moves:

The opposition then published that Mitsotakis has an illegal hotel on a greek island.
And that a prominent greek tv presenter is getting preferrencial treatment from the government over his large tax debts in exchange for favourable coverage.


I love this Tit for Tat, it uncovers so much dirt.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


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oldtimer
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Posts: 3,283
Greece


« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2023, 07:13:08 AM »
« Edited: April 03, 2023, 07:16:14 AM by oldtimer »

When you mean "the government published", you mean leaks to the media, right? And through ND, right? It seems weird a government publically announcing dirt on its opposition, rather than the government party or the media by "leaks" from a governing party.
Government itself, through it's own Ministers, MP's and Official Government Spokesmen publicly.

Accussations and allegations in Greece are usually done in public by the MP's themselves first, as cover for the media to report on them.
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oldtimer
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Greece


« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2023, 09:28:32 AM »
« Edited: April 03, 2023, 09:44:28 AM by oldtimer »

Government itself, through it's own Ministers, MP's and Official Government Spokesmen publicly.

Accussations and allegations in Greece are usually done in public by the MP's themselves first, as cover for the media to report on them.
Lol. The golden rule "your opponent's filth isn't your soap" apparently isn't part of the playbook.
If everyone already thinks they are corrupt they just want to even the score, by proving that everyone else is also as corrupt or more.

And since the greek justice system is deemed to be indifferent in combating crime from big players, it's also safe that they will never spend a single day in jail no matter the crime.

In Greece if you are a big time Television figure or a big time Political figure you are in practice immune, although there has been a hilarious exception:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.


 
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oldtimer
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Greece


« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2023, 03:29:28 PM »

I’m cheering for Leventis to get back in to Parliament.
No one is cheering for him in Greece.

Leventis was an odd political crusader (a crusade to make himself elected) who was known only because he had his own TV station with his own TV show, where he simply commented on politics and current affairs and talked to voters on the phone in an verbally abusing style.

At some point some disaffected voters said why not, and voted for him only to regret it.

Once in parliament he did nothing but empty vague rhetoric while playing boring political games.

His MP's where a general embarrassment who sold themselves to other parties immediately only to disappear from politics because no one votes for such blatant sell outs.
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