🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[Mike88]

Decided to create a new thread.

Greece will hold a general election during the spring of this year, PM Mitsotakis announced a few days ago. Current polls show New Democracy (ND) with a clear lead, but on the verge of losing its majority. This happens because for the first time since 1990, MPs will be elected by simple proportional representation and without the normal seat bonus. This was a change made by the previous Syriza government back in 2016, that was already reversed by the current ND government, but this new law will only be implemented in the election after 2023.

Because of this change in the electoral law, the future government formation could be complicated and a 2nd general election during 2023 is not off the table. A possible 2nd election during 2023 would use the new ND electoral law that would give a 20 seat bonus to the winner.

Average of polls: (compared with the 2019 election)

36% ND (-4)
28% Syriza (-4)
12% PASOK (+4)
  6% KKE (+1)
  5% EL (+1)
  4% MeRA25 (+1)
  2% EP (new)
  7% Others (-1)

Wiki page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Greek_legislative_election

POLITICO's poll of polls - https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/greece/

Greece Elects Twitter page (poll results and seat distribution) - https://twitter.com/GreeceElects

[jaichind]

Is the threshold to get seats still 3% ?

[Mike88]

Is the threshold to get seats still 3% ?

Yes.

[JimJamUK]

Average of polls: (compared with the 2019 election)
12% PASOK (+4)

Pasok cannot be pasokified!

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Somehow PASOK returned"

[Continential]

PASOK:

[Mike88]

"Somehow PASOK returned"

Well, some polling companies have been doing "2nd election scenarios" and PASOK gets a bit of a beating:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1615429118387970064

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1615343340307861508

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is the third prime minister in the last five to be the son or nephew of another Third Republic prime minister. I hate Greece.

[Mike88]

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is the third prime minister in the last five to be the son or nephew of another Third Republic prime minister. I hate Greece.

Just food for thought: His sister, Dora Bakoyannis, was mayor of Athens (2003-2006), plus his nephew and son of Dora Bakoyannis, Kostas Bakoyannis, is the incumbent mayor of Athens.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

[Mike88]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but I'm not sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but not I'm sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

EL and ND seem to have some pretty major disagreements. My uneducated guess is that if a divided parliament is elected, the PM just goes for new elections, this time with a 20 seat bonus.

[Mike88]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but not I'm sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

EL and ND seem to have some pretty major disagreements. My uneducated guess is that if a divided parliament is elected, the PM just goes for new elections, this time with a 20 seat bonus.

Yeah, EL seems to be right-wing, lean far-right, so you're probably right. A 2nd election is very likely and according to the "scenario polls", ND would get another majority with the new electoral system. We'll see, all could change in the meantime.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but not I'm sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

EL and ND seem to have some pretty major disagreements. My uneducated guess is that if a divided parliament is elected, the PM just goes for new elections, this time with a 20 seat bonus.

Yeah, EL seems to be right-wing, lean far-right, so you're probably right. A 2nd election is very likely and according to the "scenario polls", ND would get another majority with the new electoral system. We'll see, all could change in the meantime.

How is the Russia issue influencing the elections and wider electoral landscape?

[oldtimer]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

This is a thread that I have to comment on.

1st. The view among greeks is that their opinion polls are never to be trusted until 2 weeks till election day.

2nd. Turnout is going to be another record low, due to a combination of emmigration and immigration and political stagnation.

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

6th. The only legal money that exists comes from the EU funds, Tourism, and the Government. Almost every legal economic activity depends on the government and why control of it is so important to the local oligarchs and organized crime figures.
.
7th. The combination of all the above means that the electorate is very old, very urban, very establishment that spends most of it's time arguing over the civil war, with a very small youth counter-culture that's becoming quite nihilist.

Over the specific question about coalition partners:

ND have only got the Greek Solution, the leader of that party was a reject member of them and has numerous troubles with the law because he is a literal and real snakeoil salesman of miracle cures, he is only free as long as the government tolerates him.

On the long run I would look to Portugal for any Greek developments: similar size, similar politics, similar economy, equally badly run by what I read on the Portugal thread.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

Would you mind expounding on these points? Thank you in advance

[Mike88]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

On the long run I would look to Portugal for any Greek developments: similar size, similar politics, similar economy, equally badly run by what I read on the Portugal thread.

The funny thing is that the whole Greece vs Portugal comparisons are quite old: In 1872, the famous Portuguese writer Eça de Queirós, wrote this about the state of the then Kingdom of Portugal:

We are in a state comparable only to Greece: the same poverty, the same political indignity, the same economic mess, the same degradation of character, the same decay of spirit.

151 years later... yeah...it's...yeah. Not to mention the whole "Don't you dare say we're like Greece" during the Troika years.

[DL]

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies

I thought most Albanians were Muslim?

[Logical]

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies

I thought most Albanians were Muslim?

The religion of Albanians is Albanianism.

[oldtimer]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

Would you mind expounding on these points? Thank you in advance

On point 3.
I think it has been mentioned in other threads too that eastern europeans particularly rural ones lean neo-nazi, so it's a common perception.

Now about 1922.
Greece fought wars for almost 10 years in 1912-1922 with a catastrophic defeat in the end.
The territory shrank by 1/5th while the population rose by 40%.
As a result there was not enough resources or land for everyone, someone had to go, this is how it played:

Refugees from Asia Minor had lost all their property in the war and had a different culture, so they were easily stigmatised by the locals who treated them very badly, so those refugees turned to Marxism as an excuse to confiscate the property of the locals.

In reaction the locals turned to Fascism simply because they needed an excuse to exterminate the Marxists who were after their property.

WW2 provided all the weapons needed for the giant massacre and attempts to exterminate each other. In the end the Asian Minor Refugees lost thanks to Anglo-American military aid to the Fascists, millions were expelled, displaced, and killed, a milder version of the Rwandan Genocide.

The desolation forced most of the survivors to move to the capital for foreign food aid and hopes of a government job, the lucky ones left to America and Australia.

The result of high urbanization greated a surging left that threatened the old order, the suspension of democracy was their last hope, but it failed, the exiles returned and the left got control in 1981.

It is a textbook case of tribal warfare using little understood ideology as a legal excuse for it's crimes.

[oldtimer]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

Would you mind expounding on these points? Thank you in advance

On point 4.

About 10% of the population are millionaires, they are the owner class, they have no reason to emigrate or send their children away.

Another 10% of the population are civil servants, they comprise most of the middle class, they are wealthy enough to support the emigration costs of their children, so most of them leave.

The rest of the local population is usually too poor to cover the emigration costs, but most of them don't have any children anyway apart from the gypsies.

Immigrants still have large families because living conditions are still an improvement compared to their previous country, but they send most their kids to better european countries.

So the profile of young people in Greece is both ends of the income spectrum, they are either rich locals or poor immigrants with very little in the middle.

Basically the ones that own the Bar and the ones who serve at the Bar.

[oldtimer]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

3rd. Immigrants now make a majority in most rural areas but very few have any rights, this  will probably become an explosive issue in the future.

Albanians are the most intergrated and all of them are far-right, but far-right parties are anti-immigrant so they are conflicted, the other slavs are like albanians but have fewer rights.

Muslims vote on the left, since left wing parties in Greece promote islam against their christian enemies (it's a long story that starts in 1922), however most left wingers use  them as slave labour and there's been some slave revolts in rural areas recently against their left wing "slaveowers" (The leader of the Greek Communist Party is a stereotypical "Evil Farm Estate Owner" from a Mexican telenuvela) .

4th. A lot of young people have emigrated, leaving behind mostly those too rich to need to emigrate or too poor to afford to emigrate, creating a Masters and Servants class division.

5th. As greek society has decayed, first oligarchs and then the mafia has filled the gaps of running things but even they have started to decay, it's like Bulgaria but in reverse.

Would you mind expounding on these points? Thank you in advance

On point 5.

Greece had once strong parties with a strong vibrant economy (unemployment was 2% in 1980), with more european intergration the economy faltered because Greece is too small to compete in the european market, the weaker economy led to weaker parties who became more personality driven.

As unemployment continued to rise Oligarchs had more sway among the increasignly desperate population, weakening public finances also meant a weaker state, a weaker state meant greater power for the Oligarchs who made the state even weaker.

In the end the economy became too weak to support the Oligarchs, most of them went bankrupt in the early 2010's, in their place Organised Crime took over running things mostly on a local level. Some malicious tongues say that specific local mafia bosses run some specific large municipalities that provide them with immunity, some say even the FBI tried but failed to catch them, some say they have a very very keen interest in football in a specific english town famous for it's sheriffs. Malicious tongues of course.

The economy though has become too weak to even support Organised Crime, so Disorganised Crime is on the rise with lots of assasinations, as gangs break up and new ones form in responce to the ever weakening state and economy.

It's really like a Bulgaria on reverse, I say Greece of 2023 is like Bulgaria 2007'ish though the Bulgarian thread might provide better imformation for a comparison.

It's not as bad as central america, but most greeks do compare their country to 1980's Colombia, to the point that TV shows about Escobar were popular a few years ago.

It will take a very real economic recovery to break the tail spiral, just like it did in Bulgaria.

[DavidB.]

ND-EL seems a rather straightforward option, but if they don't win a majority, things may get messy. Would there be a path to any alternative government, and if so, what would it look like? Would PASOK even cooperate with Syriza (or with ND)? Or do we enter Israel territory where either the right win, or there is another election?

[justfollowingtheelections]

I think this election is going to be a lot closer than the polls tells us it will be.  SYRIZA was underestimated by the 2019 polls too.

Regarding who will be ND's coalition partner if they win, it will almost certainly be PASOK, but only after a 2nd election.  SYRIZA had changed the electoral system to something similar to Germany's system (with a 3% threshold instead of a 5% threshold), but ND sadly changed it back to a system where the winning party gets bonus seats (so the 1st election will be held with the SYRIZA system, and the 2nd one with the ND system).

PASOK new leader Androulakis was being spied on by the Mitsotakis government, and he's more left-wing than the last 2 PASOK/KINAL leaders, so he would rather not collaborate with ND, but I don't see another outcome to be honest.  Especially since the party base is a lot closer to ND than SYRIZA.
I see no way Mitsotakis would form a coalition with EL.  While he has many former LAOS MPs and other far right elements in his cabinet, he's too socially liberal to do that.

Another option is a coalition between SYRIZA-PASOK-MERA25, probably with an independent Prime Minister, which would depend however on MERA25 getting 3% (unlikely IMO, despite what the polls say, especially because I think many potential MERA25 voters will end up supporting SYRIZA).

[Estrella]

Average of polls: (compared with the 2019 election)
12% PASOK (+4)

Pasok cannot be pasokified!

The funny thing is that the sort of Western European social democratic parties with long history, trade union ties and stable support base whose decline is described as Pasokification have pretty much nothing in common PASOK: a one-man show founded in the 1970s that barely scraped third place in its first election, became a dominant party kinda out of nowhere and only lasted as long as it did because it turned itself into a hilariously shameless mafia clan patronage organization and/or a cheap knockoff of Peronists.