🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[Mike88]

Decided to create a new thread.

Greece will hold a general election during the spring of this year, PM Mitsotakis announced a few days ago. Current polls show New Democracy (ND) with a clear lead, but on the verge of losing its majority. This happens because for the first time since 1990, MPs will be elected by simple proportional representation and without the normal seat bonus. This was a change made by the previous Syriza government back in 2016, that was already reversed by the current ND government, but this new law will only be implemented in the election after 2023.

Because of this change in the electoral law, the future government formation could be complicated and a 2nd general election during 2023 is not off the table. A possible 2nd election during 2023 would use the new ND electoral law that would give a 20 seat bonus to the winner.

Average of polls: (compared with the 2019 election)

36% ND (-4)
28% Syriza (-4)
12% PASOK (+4)
  6% KKE (+1)
  5% EL (+1)
  4% MeRA25 (+1)
  2% EP (new)
  7% Others (-1)

Wiki page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Greek_legislative_election

POLITICO's poll of polls - https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/greece/

Greece Elects Twitter page (poll results and seat distribution) - https://twitter.com/GreeceElects

[Mike88]

Is the threshold to get seats still 3% ?

Yes.

[Mike88]

"Somehow PASOK returned"

Well, some polling companies have been doing "2nd election scenarios" and PASOK gets a bit of a beating:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1615429118387970064

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1615343340307861508

[Mike88]

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is the third prime minister in the last five to be the son or nephew of another Third Republic prime minister. I hate Greece.

Just food for thought: His sister, Dora Bakoyannis, was mayor of Athens (2003-2006), plus his nephew and son of Dora Bakoyannis, Kostas Bakoyannis, is the incumbent mayor of Athens.

[Mike88]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but I'm not sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

[Mike88]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but not I'm sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

EL and ND seem to have some pretty major disagreements. My uneducated guess is that if a divided parliament is elected, the PM just goes for new elections, this time with a 20 seat bonus.

Yeah, EL seems to be right-wing, lean far-right, so you're probably right. A 2nd election is very likely and according to the "scenario polls", ND would get another majority with the new electoral system. We'll see, all could change in the meantime.

[Mike88]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

On the long run I would look to Portugal for any Greek developments: similar size, similar politics, similar economy, equally badly run by what I read on the Portugal thread.

The funny thing is that the whole Greece vs Portugal comparisons are quite old: In 1872, the famous Portuguese writer Eça de Queirós, wrote this about the state of the then Kingdom of Portugal:

We are in a state comparable only to Greece: the same poverty, the same political indignity, the same economic mess, the same degradation of character, the same decay of spirit.

151 years later... yeah...it's...yeah. Not to mention the whole "Don't you dare say we're like Greece" during the Troika years.

[Mike88]

The National Party – Greeks, which is the direct descendent of Golden Dawn, has been banned from running in the elections, under this new law.

[Mike88]

Feel free to share some details of those "stories". I would like to know some of them. Also, how is Tsipras viewed nowadays by public opinion? From what I'm aware he's a bit toxic and a problem for Syriza. If he loses this year, do you think he would resign from the leadership? And, do you think Syriza is now solid as a rock as the alternative party to ND?

[Mike88]

As of historical greek scandals the oldest juicy one is the Koskota Scandal of 1987-89.

Here is the summary of a scandal filled with sex and money:

Wow! I knew that Papandreou as a "Don Juan" and that his second wife was air Olympic flight attendant, with embarrassing situations. Here in Portugal, that was widely mocked because of the Greek bailout and then we had our own bailout, anyway. One thing I found interesting was the Mitsotakis-Papandreou relationship. I think they were both from the same party before the military junta, but after that they parted in different paths and became leaders of their respective parties, PASOK and ND, almost at the same time. I assumed they were bitter enemies, but your assessment of Mitsotakis role in "protecting" Papandreou in the late 80's scandals was quite surprising.

[Mike88]

A question for our Greek posters:

One thing I found out about pre-2010 crisis Greek politics and elections was the amazing capacity of ND and PASOK of creating and managing spectacular and massive campaign rallies. I found the 1993 final rallies of ND and PASOK:

There are also videos from 1985, 1989, 2000 and 2009, with massive, massive rallies, specially Papandreou's 1985 ones. I have one question: the two parties had to bring a lot of people from all over the country to fill the streets of the main cities full of party supporters, right? The logistic operation had to be massive.

[Mike88]

Back in the 80's and 90's there wasn't really any need to bus in supporters from all over Greece, especially in Athens. People lived and breathed politics and passions were high.
The next decades though, the rallies became increasingly smaller and they tried for some years to hide that fact by bringing in people from places as far as 300-400 km away.

Now they have pretty much abandoned these massive rallies and mostly do them indoors where very rarely attend more than 10-20 thousand people.

Still, that's quite impressive. Most western democracies already in the 90s didn't have parties with that kind of mobilization capacity. In my country, for example, I can only recall the 1987 and 1991 Cavaco Silva landslides in which people just filled the streets and squares to see the PM. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

Also, the first public poll after the tragic and deadly train disaster, last week, was published today:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1633927512408436736

[Mike88]

Back in the 80's and 90's there wasn't really any need to bus in supporters from all over Greece, especially in Athens. People lived and breathed politics and passions were high.
The next decades though, the rallies became increasingly smaller and they tried for some years to hide that fact by bringing in people from places as far as 300-400 km away.

Now they have pretty much abandoned these massive rallies and mostly do them indoors where very rarely attend more than 10-20 thousand people.

Still, that's quite impressive. Most western democracies already in the 90s didn't have parties with that kind of mobilization capacity. In my country, for example, I can only recall the 1987 and 1991 Cavaco Silva landslides in which people just filled the streets and squares to see the PM. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

Also, the first public poll after the tragic and deathly train disaster, last week, was published today:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1633927512408436736

If these were the results, would you expect a "unified left" government, or a PASOK-ND coalition?

IU think you would expect a followup election.

Yep, thus the (s) in the title. PASOK seems to be suggesting a coalition with ND, but ND wants none of that and prefers a second election.

[Mike88]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

[Mike88]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

I never said anything about the train disaster? Read my post again.

I didn't say you talked about the train disaster. I just pointing out the fact that in this campaign, the lack of planning, investements and failure to deliver policies will be a big issue and Tsipras and Syriza have a lot of blame, just like ND, for all of the problems that Greece faces. The complicated past of Syriza will always be an issue for them, just like oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon posted above.

Also, it seems that Varoufakis was assaulted this evening at a restaurant in Athens. A group of people invaded the restaurant and shouted and accused Varoufakis of signing the Troika rescue packages to Greece. Varoufakis was left with a broken nose.

https://twitter.com/ekathimerini/status/1634307282455625728

[Mike88]

More polling after the train disaster and the subsequent anti-government protests:

Interview poll:

33.7% ND (-2.9)
29.4% Syriza (+0.2)
10.8% PASOK (-0.2)
  6.6% KKE (+1.1)
  5.1% EL (+0.2)
  4.2% MeRA25 (+0.5)
  1.8% ED (nc)
  8.4% Others (+1.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 March 2023. Polled 1,305 voters.

GPO poll:

35.2% ND (-3.1)
30.6% Syriza (+0.7)
11.0% PASOK (-0.1)
  8.0% KKE (+0.8 )
  3.9% MeRA25 (+1.2)
  3.6% EL (+0.2)
  1.7% ED (+1.7)
  6.0% Others (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 6 and 8 March 2023. Polled 1,000 voters.

[Mike88]

I guess that would win ND just a plurality of seats, despite getting an extra 50 for coming in first.

No bonus this time, SYRIZA abolished it last time (electoral law changes only apply to the elections after the next one).

The seat projections are the following: (compared with 2019)

Interview poll:

113 ND (-45)
  98 Syriza (+12)
  36 PASOK (+14)
  22 KKE (+7)
  17 EL (+7)
  14 MeRA25 (+5)

GPO poll:

114 ND (-44)
  99 Syriza (+13)
  36 PASOK (+14)
  26 KKE (+11)
  13 MeRA25 (+4)
  12 EL (+2)

Interview polling company also did a second round poll: (results compared with the 1st round poll numbers)

35.7% ND (+2.0), 145 seats (+32)
31.7% Syriza (+2.3), 93 (-5)
  7.7% PASOK (-3.1), 22 (-14)
  5.6% KKE (-1.0), 17 (-5)
  4.2% EL (-0.9), 12 (-5)
  3.6% MeRA25 (-0.6), 11 (-3)
11.5% Others (+1.3)

[Mike88]

What is the "second round" exactly?

After the "first" election, it's expected that the outcome will make it impossible to form a government, so a "second round" election is basically certain. This "second round" election will have the electoral system, approved by ND, that has the seat bonus for the winner.

[Mike88]

It's official: Mitsotakis has called elections for 21 May.

[Mike88]

When you mean "the government published", you mean leaks to the media, right? And through ND, right? It seems weird a government publically announcing dirt on its opposition, rather than the government party or the media by "leaks" from a governing party.

[Mike88]

That scandal involving the ND politician is just WTF. No words to describe it.

About coalitions, are you saying that if there's an Opposition majority, the most likely scenario, the leader of the biggest party in Opposition, Tsipras, will not be PM also? And, if the opposition is able to propose a majority alternative to ND, can Mitsotakis even block it?

[Mike88]

Parliament voted to ban National Party – Greeks from the elections. Supreme Court will decide its fate on 5 May:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1645899904148033536

[Mike88]

Ok, some ground rules in order to not derail this thread:

Anyone can post news stories about scandals, cases, whatever, but, try to always post a link or a twitter/facebook post of the story from a media outlet/newspaper with a general summary of the story, added with quotes if that's necessary. That way it can be verified and confirmed.

[Mike88]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

[Mike88]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

He hasn't been a categorical No as Mitsotakis has.

The problem for Venizelos being PM in a center-left coalition is his aggresive personal style, and his policy baggage from the 2011-2015 period.
He almost led PASOK out of Parliament, so he is not a popular figure to say the least.

Other potential names that I have read or heard, in case Venizelos isn't acceptable to the non-PASOK center left:

Giannis Stournaras, relatively unpopular ex-finance minister and current central banker, has stayed quiet since the Tsipras U-Turn of 2015, his term expires next year.

Nikos Alivizatos, front-man legal scholar for various centrist groups, always very outspoken  and confrontational in public.

None of them ideal solutions when they need someone who isn't strongly minded and has no political baggage, a figurehead as plain as white toast to keep everyone happy.

Ideally, Costas Skandalidis comes to mind, but no one has mentioned him even as a rumour.

From what I understand from your perspective, another election is much more likely than anything else. We'll see what happens.

Also, have parties already presented their campaign slogans and posters? That is always a fun thing to watch.