🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but not I'm sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

EL and ND seem to have some pretty major disagreements. My uneducated guess is that if a divided parliament is elected, the PM just goes for new elections, this time with a 20 seat bonus.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the likeliest coalition partners for ND?

I assume EL, but not sure if that's even on the table. Syriza could join forces with PASOK, but not I'm sure if MeRA25 is willing to support Syriza because of the whole Tsipras vs Varoufakis feud. Plus, KKE is such an orthodox Communist Party that I think they will support no one.

EL and ND seem to have some pretty major disagreements. My uneducated guess is that if a divided parliament is elected, the PM just goes for new elections, this time with a 20 seat bonus.

Yeah, EL seems to be right-wing, lean far-right, so you're probably right. A 2nd election is very likely and according to the "scenario polls", ND would get another majority with the new electoral system. We'll see, all could change in the meantime.

How is the Russia issue influencing the elections and wider electoral landscape?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SYRIZA will always get at least 25% as long as Anatolian, Cretan and Turkish tribes think it represents their tribal economic interest (Politics in Greece is highly tribal).

Could you please expound on this? Sounds fascinating.

Me as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Back in the 80's and 90's there wasn't really any need to bus in supporters from all over Greece, especially in Athens. People lived and breathed politics and passions were high.
The next decades though, the rallies became increasingly smaller and they tried for some years to hide that fact by bringing in people from places as far as 300-400 km away.

Now they have pretty much abandoned these massive rallies and mostly do them indoors where very rarely attend more than 10-20 thousand people.

Still, that's quite impressive. Most western democracies already in the 90s didn't have parties with that kind of mobilization capacity. In my country, for example, I can only recall the 1987 and 1991 Cavaco Silva landslides in which people just filled the streets and squares to see the PM. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

Also, the first public poll after the tragic and deathly train disaster, last week, was published today:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1633927512408436736

If these were the results, would you expect a "unified left" government, or a PASOK-ND coalition?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is NIKH? They have close to the 3% threshold but I can't find any information about them.

Democratic Patriotic Movement - NIKH. I assume it's a right wing party.

It's a loud-and-proud Putinist party

Here's the platform of one lf its candidates, it's mostly a bunch of right wing culture warrior grievance issues, which basically goes: would you trust those atheists, tr*nnies, homos, homewreckers and national traitors?

https://hellas.postsen.com/local/322774/Article-by-Konstantinos-Baliakas-candidate-for-parliament-in-the-PE-Kozanis-with-the-Democratic-Patriotic-Movement-NIKI-in-relation-to-the-basic-principles-of-the-party--Daily-update-for.html

Their official platform is largely the same, complaining about spiritual, biological and territorial (ie national) self destruction https://nikh.gr/i-niki

Given no polls had them winning anything, I imagine they basically ate all or almost all of the base of Greeks for the Fatherland or however the Golden Dawn successor was called?

The Exit Polls said that the ex-golden dawn vote splintered in all directions almost at random.

I guess they would cross the threshold to enter parliament, now that those voters know that this one came the closest.

inb4 the government bans NIKH

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else notice how Turks and Greeks are voting back-to-back and both their leaders have to go through some sort of second round?

Well, now that you mention it...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can Greek posters explain who’d vote for Victory rather than Velopoulos’s party? Is it 2012-2019 Golden dawn vs 2012-2019 independent Greeks? Or more complex?

Have you ever seen Ancient Aliens on the History Channel ?

That's basically the distinction between those who believe it's greek versions to be true,  and just the standard " Have you heard of our Lord and Saviour ? " stuff.

Here is an example (someone needs to translate this stuff to english) of a greek version of Ancient Aliens, which even features the VP of the ND party Adonis Georgiadis making the case that the Mayans, the Incas, and the Chinese are Ancient Greeks:

If you want a laugh, here is a long list of titles of some of their publications that greek satirists really rubbed, try and find which are the real books:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

1.Our time will come soon: 2012 and 2024.

2.China: The first greek empire.

3.Christianity in Ancient Greece: before Jesus was born.

4.Plato: The first Evangelist.

5.Global Warming and Zionist conspiracies.

6.The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

7.Putin's secret teddybear.

8.Sirius rose and the sphinx smiled.

9.Our father nation: Greeks came from the star Sirius.

10.The secret Gospels: Truth and Heresy.

11.The Generators of Space.

12.The Secrets of the Pyramids of life.

13.Falklands, the secret of the Greeks.

14.The Greeks of the Bible.

15.Planet Dioxin.

16.Traditions of Sirius.

17.Prometheus returns.

18.Atlantis: the files of the State of Poseidon.

19.Finding the Lost Ark.

20.They live Among Us: Putin and Trump vs Agenda 2030.

21.Donaldious Dacius: A greek.

22.The lost States of Mars.

23.The awakening of the red bear.

24.St.Alien the Galaxian.

25.The Known Unknowns and the Star of David.

26.Abraham the Wizard.

27.The Great Lie: In the shadow of the Great Greekism.

28.Jesus and Zeus.

29.Documents: The revelations of the unknown moments of Christ.

30.The Truth about Putin.

31.Alexander: The greatest of the Greeks.

32.All Ancient Greeks where Gays.

You get the drift, like what is the percentage of voters that believe in the Ancient Aliens stuff or Televangelism in America ?

"13.Falklands, the secret of the Greeks."
This one made me do a double take.
Like, lol...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The most catastrophic advertising campaign and the only one that changed an election outcome that I've ever seen in a greek election was by LAE in 2015.

What was special about that one?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The most catastrophic advertising campaign and the only one that changed an election outcome that I've ever seen in a greek election was by LAE in 2015.

What was special about that one?

They didn't had a well known public record, a black slate mostly.

So their terrible catastrophic ads just gave the impression that they had no program or ideas, that they were just a bunch of loonies.

I posted them just for you to have a look.

Ah. Thanks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The most catastrophic advertising campaign and the only one that changed an election outcome that I've ever seen in a greek election was by LAE in 2015.

What was special about that one?

They didn't had a well known public record, a black slate mostly.

So their terrible catastrophic ads just gave the impression that they had no program or ideas, that they were just a bunch of loonies.

I posted them just for you to have a look.

Ah. Thanks.

Like who makes a genuine ad where they threaten the voter/customer to vote/buy or else?

Not even mobsters would do TV ads like that.

And no political program, no proposals, nothing.
Just comedicly abstract art performance.

The equivalent of having Biden just eat ice cream on TV saying nothing while brandishing a gun at you.

The clouds at Mount Olympus part and unify with each other in order to keep Zoe Konstantopoulou out of parliament.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It does feel that this little moment could have some pretty drastic consequences down the line someway or another...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It does feel that this little moment could have some pretty drastic consequences down the line someway or another...

It feels like a real rendition of "The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer".

The Oligarchs needed to convince only 0.75% of registered voters through an advertising blitz to install random "Sooty the Sockpuppet" as leader of a major party in just 3 weeks.

Thanks, I was not aware of this movie! I need to watch it at some point.
And, uh, I guess this does show the power of money especially when it is effectively unopposed. What an utter mess. Played like a fiddle...or a harp you see on those old  illustrations by some of the Greek gods.