🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[oldtimer]

Looks like a close match between Paok F.C. and Aris F.C. for control of the Thessalokini Mayorship.

(Just like in Piraeus and some other Mayorships, it's strongly controlled by Soccer Clubs)

[oldtimer]

It looks a bit different than in the beggining of the night.

ND might be in danger of losing 5 of the 12 Governorships it won last time in the 2nd round, plus the Thessaloniki Mayorship.

[Mike88]

Results of the 4 Major cities:

Athens: (82.1% reporting)

41.3% Bakogiannis (ND) - Runoff
14.3% Doukas (PASOK) - Runoff
13.3% Zachariadis (Syriza)
12.8% Sofianos (KKE)
  8.3% Kasidiaris (Spartans)
  6.1% Papadikis (MeRA25)
  3.8% Paoadopoulou (Ind.)

31.8% Turnout

Thessaloniki: (68.6% reporting)

27.3% Zervas (ND) - Runoff
25.8% Angeloudis (Ind/PASOK) - Runoff
20.8% Pegkas (Syriza)
  6.9% Tompoulidis (KKE)
  5.5% Keki (Ind./MeRA25)
  5.5% Tsavlis (Ind./ND)
  4.6% Kalogiros (Ind./ND)
  1.6% Ziampazis (Ind.)

40.7% Turnout

Patras: (69.0% reporting)

40.3% Peletidis (KKE) - Runoff
25.8% Svolis (Ind./ND) - Runoff
19.3% Aivalis (PASOK/Syriza)
14.6% Psomas (Ind.)

53.8% Turnout

Piraeus: (86.3% reporting)

69.8% Moralis (Ind./ND/PASOK)
14.0% Gavrilis (Syriza)
11.6% Ampatielos (KKE)
  2.5% Diavolakis
  2.2% Nizamis (Ind.)

34.9% Turnout

[oldtimer]

Overall the pattern in local races are mirroring the economic performance of the past 4 years.

For example in Athens local mayors are doing really well in southern coastal municipalities that have seen an economic boom from tourism and shipping companies.

In the rest of Athens they tend to be doing quite badly and would probably lose in the 2nd round.

[Mike88]

Results of the 5 main regions:

Attica: (76.2% reporting)

46.5% Chardalias (ND)
15.7% Ioakeimidis (Ind./Syriza)
14.0% Protoulis (KKE)
13.2% Sgouros (PASOK)
  3.2% Kampouris (Ind.)
  2.9% Dimitriou (Ind.)
  2.5% Tsichli (LAE - ΑΑ)
  2.0% Toulgaridis (ANT.AR.SY.A)

45.3% Turnout

Central Macedonia: (69.7% reporting)

60.0% Tzitzikostas (ND)
10.7% Papastergiou (PASOK)
  8.0% Avramopoulos (KKE)
  7.2% Mylopoulos (Syriza)
  4.0% Kyrilidis (Spartans)
  3.9% Rokos (Ind.)
  2.5% Gkanoulis (Ind.)
  2.0% Charalampidou (LAE - ΑΑ)
  1.8% Agapitos (ANT.AR.SY.A)

52.0% Turnout

Thessaly: (70.6% reporting)

41.4% Agorastos (ND) - Runoff
34.1% Kouretas (Ind./PASOK/Syriza) - Runoff
12.9% Tsiaples (KKE)
  9.4% Tzanakouli (Ind./ND)
  2.2% Talachoupis (ANT.AR.SY.A)

58.1% Turnout

Western Greece: (67.3% reporting)

58.5% Farmakis (ND)
13.2% Skiadaresis (PASOK)
12.1% Karpetas (Ind./Syriza)
  9.7% Parisis (KKE)
  2.9% Chatzilamprou (LAE - ΑΑ)
  2.2% Kolliopoulos (Ind.)
  1.4% Kosinas (ANT.AR.SY.A)

57.8% Turnout

Crete: (67.4% reporting)

78.3% Arnaoutakis (PASOK/ND)
10.9% Danellis (Syriza)
  8.4% Marinakis (KKE)
  2.4% Zampoulakis (ANT.AR.SY.A)

60.4% Turnout

[oldtimer]

Due to quite a suprising weak government performance we will see quite a few 2nd round contests.

This is how they tend to work:

Case A.

Government Incumbent vs Opposition candidate

If the 1st round was relatively close, the Opposition rallies to depose the Government Incumbent.

Case B.

Opposition Incumbent vs Government candidate

More tricky, depends on the size of the outstanding left vote vs the outstanding right vote.

In all other possible combinations local deals matter more than ideology or incumbency and are way too unpredictable.

In most cases the Communist Party tends to abstain, unless they are in the 2nd round of course.
Far Right voters tend to abstain in races involving no right of center candidate.

[Mike88]

Regional elections, Popular vote*:

46.1% ND
15.0% PASOK
10.0% KKE
  9.7% Syriza
  1.6% Antarsya
  1.3% LAE-AA
16.3% Independents

  6.5% Blank/Invalid ballots

52.5% Turnout

* Independents count also as candidates who ran on their own but that received party support.

Also, Oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon is there any data of municipalities won by each party?

[oldtimer]

Regional elections, Popular vote*:

46.1% ND
15.0% PASOK
10.0% KKE
  9.7% Syriza
  1.6% Antarsya
  1.3% LAE-AA
16.3% Independents

  6.5% Blank/Invalid ballots

52.5% Turnout

* Independents count also as candidates who ran on their own but that received party support.

Also, Oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon is there any data of municipalities won by each party?

What you did was a good try, but there isn't accurate data about municipalities, because dejure support from Parties was mostly in large municipalities not small ones, plus the local mobster boss angle makes it even blurrier.

Even the regional vote is a bit misleadiing since Independent candidates had unofficial support from parties and some candidates even from multiple parties, but it does reflect local party membership strength.

It's better to compare local greek results with the previous ones.

A quick comparison gives me a picture of continued organizational decline of opposition parties apart from the Communists, and that the Right hasn't split off from ND on the local level yet.

[oldtimer]

Overall it's the same pattern from the legislative election.

ND is super strong in coastal tourism dependent areas, but getting weaker elsewhere.
A reflection of local economic trends.

The Center Left continues to decline.

[Mike88]

Regional elections, Popular vote*:

46.1% ND
15.0% PASOK
10.0% KKE
  9.7% Syriza
  1.6% Antarsya
  1.3% LAE-AA
16.3% Independents

  6.5% Blank/Invalid ballots

52.5% Turnout

* Independents count also as candidates who ran on their own but that received party support.

Also, Oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon is there any data of municipalities won by each party?

What you did was a good try, but there isn't accurate data about municipalities, because dejure support from Parties was mostly in large municipalities not small ones, plus the local mobster boss angle makes it even blurrier.

Even the regional vote is a bit misleadiing since Independent candidates had unofficial support from parties and some candidates even from multiple parties, but it does reflect local party membership strength.

It's better to compare local greek results with the previous ones.

A quick comparison gives me a picture of continued organizational decline of opposition parties apart from the Communists, and that the Right hasn't split off from ND on the local level yet.

Yeah, I found some results in which there was no party indication to the candidates. I know that local elections in Greece are more non-partisan unlike the majority of EU countries, but still, it was worth the shot. You say that ND is losing support in, for example, rural areas? Where do you think those votes are going to?

[oldtimer]

Regional elections, Popular vote*:

46.1% ND
15.0% PASOK
10.0% KKE
  9.7% Syriza
  1.6% Antarsya
  1.3% LAE-AA
16.3% Independents

  6.5% Blank/Invalid ballots

52.5% Turnout

* Independents count also as candidates who ran on their own but that received party support.

Also, Oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon is there any data of municipalities won by each party?

What you did was a good try, but there isn't accurate data about municipalities, because dejure support from Parties was mostly in large municipalities not small ones, plus the local mobster boss angle makes it even blurrier.

Even the regional vote is a bit misleadiing since Independent candidates had unofficial support from parties and some candidates even from multiple parties, but it does reflect local party membership strength.

It's better to compare local greek results with the previous ones.

A quick comparison gives me a picture of continued organizational decline of opposition parties apart from the Communists, and that the Right hasn't split off from ND on the local level yet.

Yeah, I found some results in which there was no party indication to the candidates. I know that local elections in Greece are more non-partisan unlike the majority of EU countries, but still, it was worth the shot. You say that ND is losing support in, for example, rural areas? Where do you think those votes are going to?

Those voters are going to either other local candidates with limited party connections or simply abstain, due to disorganized political opposition and unpopular center left parties.
And it's not just in rural areas.

You can see it through Athens, because Athens is split into dozens of small municipalities.

Incumbents won easily from the 1st round in areas of Athens where the economy has been pretty good and gentrification is occuring, which is in western and southern parts of the City.

But in central and northern parts of the City, incumbent Mayors are in a bad shape and couldn't win in round 1 or lost outright, as those are the areas in economic decline even in relatively wealthy parts.

It's all due to the reorientation of the economy to tourism and the shipping companies, and away from finance and construction, affecting different parts of the City.

[oldtimer]

To expand a bit :

In the Athens Central Sector only 1 Mayor won relection in round 1, out of 8.

In the Northern Sector only 2 out of 12.

In the Southern Sector 5 out of 8.

In the Western Sector 3 out of 7.

In the Piraeus Sector 3 out of 5.

[oldtimer]

Konstantopoulou lost an MP, no one knows why.

Looks like it might be a private family affair, his mother is also an MP.

[Mike88]

So far, very low turnout in the local elections runoff. At 2.30pm, just 23.1% had cast a ballot, compared with the 30.8% last Sunday at the same hour.

There are 84 runoffs out of the 332 municipalities, and 6 runoffs out of the 13 regions. The main races are Athens and Thessaloniki cities and the Thessaly region.

[Mike88]

Polls close in 15 minutes. At 5:30pm, turnout stood at just 31.2%.

[Vosem]

Looks like a close match between Paok F.C. and Aris F.C. for control of the Thessalokini Mayorship.

(Just like in Piraeus and some other Mayorships, it's strongly controlled by Soccer Clubs)

Say more about political parties in certain cities being controlled by soccer clubs? Is Greece still vulnerable to something like the Nika riots?

[Mike88]

Still early, but the first returns show that official ND candidates are performing quite badly.

[Mike88]

Thessaloniki seems lost for ND. In Athens, Bakogiannis (ND) is behind the PASOK supported candidate 45-55%.

Thessaly region is also trending in favour of the Opposition, with the ND candidate trailing 47-53%.

[Mike88]

Athens is also lost for ND. 62% counted and it's 56-44% in favour of Charis Doukas (PASOK).

Thessaloniki is a "humilliation" for ND. 52% counted and Angeloudis (Ind/PASOK) is trouncing the incumbent ND mayor, Kostas Zervas, 67-33%.

Thessaly region is now official, ND has lost: 59% counted and Kostas Agorastos (ND) is trailing against the Ind/Syriza/PASOK candidate Dimitrios Kouretas, 41-59%.

ND incumbents/official candidates have also lost the Western Macedonia region, the Eastern Macedonia & Thrace region, the North Aegean region and the Ionian Islands. The only bright spot for ND is the region of Peloponnese, where the ND candidate is ahead 52-48%.

[oldtimer]

No surprises apart from Peloponesse and Athens.

It was expected from the 1st round results for the greek government to lose almost all outstanding races, but not Athens.

Yes, the PM's nephew who's the Mayor (until today) was super unpopular because of his brainless schemes, but losing round 2 by 11% after winning round 1 by 27% against a joke candidate, that needed a special talent.

Now the Dutch can joke that Volt Netherlands won Athens.

[oldtimer]

Looks like a close match between Paok F.C. and Aris F.C. for control of the Thessalokini Mayorship.

(Just like in Piraeus and some other Mayorships, it's strongly controlled by Soccer Clubs)

Say more about political parties in certain cities being controlled by soccer clubs? Is Greece still vulnerable to something like the Nika riots?

There are regular clashes between soccer fans for decades.

But here's what going on usually in Greece:
 
Soccer clubs have working class loyalists = votes

Votes = control of local judiciary and local police

Control of the judiciary and police = De-facto immunity from Law

De-facto immunity from Law draws in organised crime like flies to crap.

[Mike88]

Results of the 3 Major cities: (nationwide turnout 40.7%)

Athens:

56.0% Doukas (PASOK)
44.0% Bakogiannis (ND)

26.7% Turnout

Thessaloniki:

67.3% Angeloudis (Ind/PASOK)
32.7% Zervas (ND)

32.6% Turnout

Patras:

56.7% Peletidis (KKE)
43.3% Svolis (Ind./ND)

44.4% Turnout

[Mike88]

Regions: (nationwide turnout 35.2%)

Thessaly:

59.7% Kouretas (Ind./PASOK/Syriza)
40.3% Agorastos (ND)

39.4% Turnout

Peloponnese:

52.8% Ptochos (ND)
47.2% Tatoulis (Ind.)

33.0% Turnout

Easter Macedonia & Thrace:

50.9% Topsidis (Ind./ND)
49.1% Metios (ND)

35.3% Turnout

[Landslide Lyndon]

That was a real shellacking for the candidates of ND and the first decisive defeat for Mitsotakis since 2016.
PASOK in now clearly the opposition party while SYRIZA can be at best described as its junior partner.

[oldtimer]

That was a real shellacking for the candidates of ND and the first decisive defeat for Mitsotakis since 2016.
PASOK in now clearly the opposition party while SYRIZA can be at best described as its junior partner.

It was invevitable, someone can win power with just 37% of the vote, but when they need 50%+ they usually lose unless genuinely popular.

However neither PASOK or SYRIZA are a credible or popular opposition, at least right now, and the center-left is too small to win a Parliamentary election.

Even Kasselakis has fled to America after just 2 weeks on the job, full of collisions, internal fighting, and public ridicule.