🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Back in the 80's and 90's there wasn't really any need to bus in supporters from all over Greece, especially in Athens. People lived and breathed politics and passions were high.
The next decades though, the rallies became increasingly smaller and they tried for some years to hide that fact by bringing in people from places as far as 300-400 km away.

Now they have pretty much abandoned these massive rallies and mostly do them indoors where very rarely attend more than 10-20 thousand people.

Still, that's quite impressive. Most western democracies already in the 90s didn't have parties with that kind of mobilization capacity. In my country, for example, I can only recall the 1987 and 1991 Cavaco Silva landslides in which people just filled the streets and squares to see the PM. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

Also, the first public poll after the tragic and deathly train disaster, last week, was published today:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1633927512408436736

If these were the results, would you expect a "unified left" government, or a PASOK-ND coalition?

[Oryxslayer]

Back in the 80's and 90's there wasn't really any need to bus in supporters from all over Greece, especially in Athens. People lived and breathed politics and passions were high.
The next decades though, the rallies became increasingly smaller and they tried for some years to hide that fact by bringing in people from places as far as 300-400 km away.

Now they have pretty much abandoned these massive rallies and mostly do them indoors where very rarely attend more than 10-20 thousand people.

Still, that's quite impressive. Most western democracies already in the 90s didn't have parties with that kind of mobilization capacity. In my country, for example, I can only recall the 1987 and 1991 Cavaco Silva landslides in which people just filled the streets and squares to see the PM. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

Also, the first public poll after the tragic and deathly train disaster, last week, was published today:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1633927512408436736

If these were the results, would you expect a "unified left" government, or a PASOK-ND coalition?

I think you would expect a followup election.

[Mike88]

Back in the 80's and 90's there wasn't really any need to bus in supporters from all over Greece, especially in Athens. People lived and breathed politics and passions were high.
The next decades though, the rallies became increasingly smaller and they tried for some years to hide that fact by bringing in people from places as far as 300-400 km away.

Now they have pretty much abandoned these massive rallies and mostly do them indoors where very rarely attend more than 10-20 thousand people.

Still, that's quite impressive. Most western democracies already in the 90s didn't have parties with that kind of mobilization capacity. In my country, for example, I can only recall the 1987 and 1991 Cavaco Silva landslides in which people just filled the streets and squares to see the PM. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

Also, the first public poll after the tragic and deathly train disaster, last week, was published today:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1633927512408436736

If these were the results, would you expect a "unified left" government, or a PASOK-ND coalition?

IU think you would expect a followup election.

Yep, thus the (s) in the title. PASOK seems to be suggesting a coalition with ND, but ND wants none of that and prefers a second election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's an absolute certainty that we will have a second election. If nobody gets an absolute majority again, then we will start talking about coalition governments.

[CumbrianLefty]

PASOK want another coalition with ND? Even after what happened to them last time??

There's no teaching some people, I guess.

[Cassius]

PASOK want another coalition with ND? Even after what happened to them last time??

There's no teaching some people, I guess.

I think the issue here is that there doesn’t seem to be an easily formable ‘broad left’ government, given that that would require the cooperation of PASOK with the KKE, which seems unlikely, given that the KKE is eurosceptic and ambivalent on Ukraine whilst PASOK is neither of those things (also KKE haven’t participated in a government since 1991). Therefore if, even after successive elections, no ND majority emerges, then an ND-PASOK coalition will be the most workable alternative to third elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

How likely is the prospect of a center-left SYRIZA-PASOK-MeRA25 coalition if it gets a majority? Given that ND seems hell-bent on taking advantage of the majority bonus that would kick in in a second election and KKE’s… specialness; it looks like the only realistic government option (barring a repeat election).

[Mike88]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

I never said anything about the train disaster? Read my post again.

[oldtimer]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

Tsipras is uniquely weak because of his bad governing record.

If there is going to be movement it will come from small, probably extraparliamentary parties.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there any internal opposition to Tsipras? Will this probably be his last election, assuming ND wins?

[oldtimer]

A question for our Greek posters:

One thing I found out about pre-2010 crisis Greek politics and elections was the amazing capacity of ND and PASOK of creating and managing spectacular and massive campaign rallies. I found the 1993 final rallies of ND and PASOK:

There are also videos from 1985, 1989, 2000 and 2009, with massive, massive rallies, specially Papandreou's 1985 ones. I have one question: the two parties had to bring a lot of people from all over the country to fill the streets of the main cities full of party supporters, right? The logistic operation had to be massive.

Mass Politics and Entertainment are the same thing.

Papandreou always used to end his rallies with Carmina Burana o Fortuna to give a Hollywood Epicness to his speeches. Trump's musical encore is lame compared to that.

People also used to participate more, because they expected more from governments.
These days they have low expectations, so participation is also low.

[oldtimer]

Is there any internal opposition to Tsipras? Will this probably be his last election, assuming ND wins?

Tsipras always purges anyone who outshines him from his own party, regardless of them being friends or enemies.

Jokingly he's like Stalin with a boyish face.

His calculations are entirely cynical and self serving.
That as long as he is alive and purges anyone who could be a credible threat to his leadership, he can remain Leader and get the 25-30% from the left wing tribes, and hope that ND at some point fails to form a government in the next 30-40 years.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any internal opposition to Tsipras? Will this probably be his last election, assuming ND wins?

Currently there is none but I just can't see him staying after another defeat. It's obvious also that after 2019 he is just going through the motions, there isn't any fire in his belly.
The problem is that his friend and second in command Nikos Pappas was just convicted of corruption and lost any chance to succeed him as party leader. The other two who will probably make a run for it are Panos Skourletis (a Ted Cruz-like populist asshole) and Yiannis Ragousis, a former minister in the last Papandreou government who is mistrusted by the rest of the SYRIZA die-hards for that exact reason.   

[Mike88]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

I never said anything about the train disaster? Read my post again.

I didn't say you talked about the train disaster. I just pointing out the fact that in this campaign, the lack of planning, investements and failure to deliver policies will be a big issue and Tsipras and Syriza have a lot of blame, just like ND, for all of the problems that Greece faces. The complicated past of Syriza will always be an issue for them, just like oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon posted above.

Also, it seems that Varoufakis was assaulted this evening at a restaurant in Athens. A group of people invaded the restaurant and shouted and accused Varoufakis of signing the Troika rescue packages to Greece. Varoufakis was left with a broken nose.

https://twitter.com/ekathimerini/status/1634307282455625728

[oldtimer]

It would be hilarious if ND comes out ahead this election, promptly calls a new one to get the majority bonus, and then somehow SYRIZA pulls ahead gets the majority bonus. That's unlikely of course, but not impossible if we're assuming 3+ months of campaigning in between elections.

I don't see how Syriza, specially led by Tsipras, would benefit with the ND collapse due to the train disaster. In fact, the privatization of the Greek train company was done back in 2016, when Tsipras was PM. I mean, everytime he attacked ND on the disaster and the on lack of investment, he would be asked "Sure, but you were also PM and in fact sold it to the Italians. What is your responsibility in all of this?"

I never said anything about the train disaster? Read my post again.

I didn't say you talked about the train disaster. I just pointing out the fact that in this campaign, the lack of planning, investements and failure to deliver policies will be a big issue and Tsipras and Syriza have a lot of blame, just like ND, for all of the problems that Greece faces. The complicated past of Syriza will always be an issue for them, just like oldtimer and Landslide Lyndon posted above.

Also, it seems that Varoufakis was assaulted this evening at a restaurant in Athens. A group of people invaded the restaurant and shouted and accused Varoufakis of signing the Troika rescue packages to Greece. Varoufakis was left with a broken nose.

https://twitter.com/ekathimerini/status/1634307282455625728

All greek parliamentary party leaders are unpopular for a variety of reasons.

It is said that Varoufakis only founded his party in 2018 to gain parliamentary immunity out of fear the incoming ND government would prosecute him over his incompetence as finance minister in 2015, but instead they seem to tolerate him as an embarrassment for the left.

[warandwar]

Papandreou always used to end his rallies with Carmina Burana o Fortuna to give a Hollywood Epicness to his speeches.

Bro treating his campaign rallies like a 7th grader on iMovie

[oldtimer]

Papandreou always used to end his rallies with Carmina Burana o Fortuna to give a Hollywood Epicness to his speeches.

Bro treating his campaign rallies like a 7th grader on iMovie

To be fair he wanted the millions of people in his rallies (and those watching on TV) to feel that it was more than just a rally, but an epic historical moment.

Trump also did that successfully I believe on his 2016 election night victory speech intro, you can feel the vibes from that soundtrack:

[Mike88]

More polling after the train disaster and the subsequent anti-government protests:

Interview poll:

33.7% ND (-2.9)
29.4% Syriza (+0.2)
10.8% PASOK (-0.2)
  6.6% KKE (+1.1)
  5.1% EL (+0.2)
  4.2% MeRA25 (+0.5)
  1.8% ED (nc)
  8.4% Others (+1.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 March 2023. Polled 1,305 voters.

GPO poll:

35.2% ND (-3.1)
30.6% Syriza (+0.7)
11.0% PASOK (-0.1)
  8.0% KKE (+0.8 )
  3.9% MeRA25 (+1.2)
  3.6% EL (+0.2)
  1.7% ED (+1.7)
  6.0% Others (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 6 and 8 March 2023. Polled 1,000 voters.

[President Johnson]

More polling after the train disaster and the subsequent anti-government protests:

Interview poll:

33.7% ND (-2.9)
29.4% Syriza (+0.2)
10.8% PASOK (-0.2)
  6.6% KKE (+1.1)
  5.1% EL (+0.2)
  4.2% MeRA25 (+0.5)
  1.8% ED (nc)
  8.4% Others (+1.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 March 2023. Polled 1,305 voters.

GPO poll:

35.2% ND (-3.1)
30.6% Syriza (+0.7)
11.0% PASOK (-0.1)
  8.0% KKE (+0.8 )
  3.9% MeRA25 (+1.2)
  3.6% EL (+0.2)
  1.7% ED (+1.7)
  6.0% Others (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 6 and 8 March 2023. Polled 1,000 voters.

I guess that would win ND just a plurality of seats, despite getting an extra 50 for coming in first.

[MaxQue]

Code:

More polling after the train disaster and the subsequent anti-government protests:

Interview poll:

33.7% ND (-2.9)
29.4% Syriza (+0.2)
10.8% PASOK (-0.2)
  6.6% KKE (+1.1)
  5.1% EL (+0.2)
  4.2% MeRA25 (+0.5)
  1.8% ED (nc)
  8.4% Others (+1.1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 9 March 2023. Polled 1,305 voters.

GPO poll:

35.2% ND (-3.1)
30.6% Syriza (+0.7)
11.0% PASOK (-0.1)
  8.0% KKE (+0.8 )
  3.9% MeRA25 (+1.2)
  3.6% EL (+0.2)
  1.7% ED (+1.7)
  6.0% Others (-1.4)

Poll conducted between 6 and 8 March 2023. Polled 1,000 voters.

I guess that would win ND just a plurality of seats, despite getting an extra 50 for coming in first.

No bonus this time, SYRIZA abolished it last time (electoral law changes only apply to the elections after the next one).

[Mike88]

I guess that would win ND just a plurality of seats, despite getting an extra 50 for coming in first.

No bonus this time, SYRIZA abolished it last time (electoral law changes only apply to the elections after the next one).

The seat projections are the following: (compared with 2019)

Interview poll:

113 ND (-45)
  98 Syriza (+12)
  36 PASOK (+14)
  22 KKE (+7)
  17 EL (+7)
  14 MeRA25 (+5)

GPO poll:

114 ND (-44)
  99 Syriza (+13)
  36 PASOK (+14)
  26 KKE (+11)
  13 MeRA25 (+4)
  12 EL (+2)

Interview polling company also did a second round poll: (results compared with the 1st round poll numbers)

35.7% ND (+2.0), 145 seats (+32)
31.7% Syriza (+2.3), 93 (-5)
  7.7% PASOK (-3.1), 22 (-14)
  5.6% KKE (-1.0), 17 (-5)
  4.2% EL (-0.9), 12 (-5)
  3.6% MeRA25 (-0.6), 11 (-3)
11.5% Others (+1.3)

[CumbrianLefty]

What is the "second round" exactly?

[Mike88]

What is the "second round" exactly?

After the "first" election, it's expected that the outcome will make it impossible to form a government, so a "second round" election is basically certain. This "second round" election will have the electoral system, approved by ND, that has the seat bonus for the winner.