🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[oldtimer]

What governing coalition is most likely with ND coming in 1st place, but losing their majority? Greece is one of the countries that have little experience with coalition govts. SYRIZA governed with the right populist ANEL before; ND with the Social Dems after the 2012 election.

In the first elections any coalition that gets around 47% of the vote.
Most likely a Tsipras-PASOK-Varoufakis coalition.

In subsequent elections, in case the first election isn't rerun for legal issues (there is always a possibility of a screw up with the courts), 1st party around 38%, coalitions with 1st party 40% (could be lower if "The Greeks" are banned). Mitsotakis-PASOK or Mitsotakis-Velopoulos are the probable coalitions.

Right now newspaper estimates converge on the folowing:

Mitsotakis 33-34%
Tsipras 30-31%
PASOK 11-12%
Communists 5-6%
Velopoulos 5-6%
Varoufakis 4-5%

Bonus "The Greeks" party (will know on May 4th if they are banned) 4-5%

All others way bellow the 3% threshold to enter parliament.

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

Unlike in 2012, small parties are already small and non-squeezable, with the exception of PASOK which may be squeezed a bit, everyone already is running on core supporters.

[Mike88]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

[oldtimer]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

He hasn't been a categorical No as Mitsotakis has.

The problem for Venizelos being PM in a center-left coalition is his aggresive personal style, and his policy baggage from the 2011-2015 period.
He almost led PASOK out of Parliament, so he is not a popular figure to say the least.

Other potential names that I have read or heard, in case Venizelos isn't acceptable to the non-PASOK center left:

Giannis Stournaras, relatively unpopular ex-finance minister and current central banker, has stayed quiet since the Tsipras U-Turn of 2015, his term expires next year.

Nikos Alivizatos, front-man legal scholar for various centrist groups, always very outspoken  and confrontational in public.

None of them ideal solutions when they need someone who isn't strongly minded and has no political baggage, a figurehead as plain as white toast to keep everyone happy.

Ideally, Costas Skandalidis comes to mind, but no one has mentioned him even as a rumour.

[Mike88]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

He hasn't been a categorical No as Mitsotakis has.

The problem for Venizelos being PM in a center-left coalition is his aggresive personal style, and his policy baggage from the 2011-2015 period.
He almost led PASOK out of Parliament, so he is not a popular figure to say the least.

Other potential names that I have read or heard, in case Venizelos isn't acceptable to the non-PASOK center left:

Giannis Stournaras, relatively unpopular ex-finance minister and current central banker, has stayed quiet since the Tsipras U-Turn of 2015, his term expires next year.

Nikos Alivizatos, front-man legal scholar for various centrist groups, always very outspoken  and confrontational in public.

None of them ideal solutions when they need someone who isn't strongly minded and has no political baggage, a figurehead as plain as white toast to keep everyone happy.

Ideally, Costas Skandalidis comes to mind, but no one has mentioned him even as a rumour.

From what I understand from your perspective, another election is much more likely than anything else. We'll see what happens.

Also, have parties already presented their campaign slogans and posters? That is always a fun thing to watch.

[oldtimer]

The sticking point for any coalition with PASOK is that they will demand as a price that a PASOK'ist becomes PM (most likely Vangelis Venizelos), Mitsotakis wants to remain PM so repeated elections like in Bulgaria are not out of the question.

And Tsipras? Is he willing to accept PM Venizelos instead of himself?

He hasn't been a categorical No as Mitsotakis has.

The problem for Venizelos being PM in a center-left coalition is his aggresive personal style, and his policy baggage from the 2011-2015 period.
He almost led PASOK out of Parliament, so he is not a popular figure to say the least.

Other potential names that I have read or heard, in case Venizelos isn't acceptable to the non-PASOK center left:

Giannis Stournaras, relatively unpopular ex-finance minister and current central banker, has stayed quiet since the Tsipras U-Turn of 2015, his term expires next year.

Nikos Alivizatos, front-man legal scholar for various centrist groups, always very outspoken  and confrontational in public.

None of them ideal solutions when they need someone who isn't strongly minded and has no political baggage, a figurehead as plain as white toast to keep everyone happy.

Ideally, Costas Skandalidis comes to mind, but no one has mentioned him even as a rumour.

From what I understand from your perspective, another election is much more likely than anything else. We'll see what happens.

Also, have parties already presented their campaign slogans and posters? That is always a fun thing to watch.

If the Center-Left has 151 seats after the 1st election they will probably form a government.

In a 2nd election they will all lose a lot of seats, and all will be in a worse negotiating position vs Mitsotakis.

That is a big incentive.

And unlike in Portugal, the Office of the Presidency in Greece is just a "cosmetic flower pot", that is also unpopular, so it plays no role. (most greeks I suspect would gladly vote to abolish it, to save money and avoid embarrassment)

[Mike88]

If the Center-Left has 151 seats after the 1st election they will probably form a government.

In a 2nd election they will all lose a lot of seats, and all will be in a worse negotiating position vs Mitsotakis.

That is a big incentive.

And unlike in Portugal, the Office of the Presidency in Greece is just a "cosmetic flower pot", that is also unpopular, so it plays no role. (most greeks I suspect would gladly vote to abolish it, to save money and avoid embarrassment)

I see. Well, to be honest, and to not derail this topic with "Portugalization", after an election, the President here has little power in reality. He nominates a PM "based on the election results", but Parliament can always force him to pick another PM, just look what happened in late 2015. Adding to the fact that the law forbids any dissolution of Parliament six months after the swearing in of a new one, plus, "Presidential appointed governments" are basically impossible in the current system, so in a deadlock situation, the country would get a lame duck government for more than half a year. But, I understand what you mean.

[oldtimer]

If the Center-Left has 151 seats after the 1st election they will probably form a government.

In a 2nd election they will all lose a lot of seats, and all will be in a worse negotiating position vs Mitsotakis.

That is a big incentive.

And unlike in Portugal, the Office of the Presidency in Greece is just a "cosmetic flower pot", that is also unpopular, so it plays no role. (most greeks I suspect would gladly vote to abolish it, to save money and avoid embarrassment)

I see. Well, to be honest, and to not derail this topic with "Portugalization", after an election, the President here has little power in reality. He nominates a PM "based on the election results", but Parliament can always force him to pick another PM, just look what happened in late 2015. Adding to the fact that the law forbids any dissolution of Parliament six months after the swearing in of a new one, plus, "Presidential appointed governments" are basically impossible in the current system, so in a deadlock situation, the country would get a lame duck government for more than half a year. But, I understand what you mean.

In Greece the President has no legal power or authority to do anything, it's elected by parliament by plurality, so the public have no say either and no one cares, it's not even popular.

So it's just a waste of money and time, if it's abolished no one would notice or shed tears.

The President of UNESCO has more authority and popularity in Greece due to all the antiquities.

[Coldstream]

I’m surprised PASOK are keen on Venizelos, didn’t he basically quit in 2019?

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/241152/venizelos-quits-socialist-kinal/

[oldtimer]

I’m surprised PASOK are keen on Venizelos, didn’t he basically quit in 2019?

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/241152/venizelos-quits-socialist-kinal/

I guess they need someone popular with the oligarchy who could push ND to ditch Mitsotakis

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

The evolution of the oligarchy in greece is a long story, ND mostly aligns with the Shipping Oligarchs who are the only survivors from the domestic economic crisis, PASOK mostly aligned with the interests of Banking and Construction Oligarchs who wiped themselves out, by supporting the very economic policies that led to their own demise

 But that comes at the cost of popularity among voters.

[VPH]

Demographically/socially, what is PASOK's voter base like these days?

[oldtimer]

Demographically/socially, what is PASOK's voter base like these days?

New Money and Old People.

A bit like the modern Democrats, but since there are far less people in Greece who became rich in the past 30 years without losing their fortunes in the crash, their level of support is far far lower.

Especially since the Finance and Entertainment sectors practically no longer exist, all those advertising executives and bankers that where their vanguard are gone.

So their average voter I would guess would be a 70 year old retired senior civil servant.

[Mike88]

Yeah, I would assume that the current PASOK voter base is basically elderly, that is still reminiscent of the "glory days" of Andreas governments.

Also, is this having any impact in the campaign?:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1647993762667274246

[oldtimer]

Summary of Week 4 of the Campaign:

1.Hearthrob Actor and SYRIZA MEP Alex Georgoulis was suspended after the ex-girfriend of the Leader of PASOK accused him of raping her 3 years ago.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/athens-on-fire-as-mep-faces-rape-accusations/

https://en.protothema.gr/pasoks-eleni-chronopoulou-her-serious-accusations-against-georgoulis-bring-turmoil-to-the-greek-political-scene/

There is a potential love triangle, so I'm not going any further.

3 out of 21 Greek MEP's have been arrested or suspended in the past 6 months.


2. "The Greeks" party dissolved after it was considered that the ban by Mitsotakis will be upheld by the new judges, instead another party might absorb them at the risk of Mitsotakis banning them too.


3. The Velopoulos party lost 2 of it's MP's after Velopoulos himself make public the rumours that Mitsotakis was bribing 3 of his MP's to support him after the elections.

Two of those MP's that he named left his party today, perhaps to join Mitsotakis a bit earlier than planned.

He also hinted that an MP from PASOK (probably Andreas Loverdos) will also join Mitsotakis.

(I couldn't find an english version, so it's in greek)

https://www.kathimerini.gr/politics/562385101/ektos-ellinikis-lysis-aikaterini-alexopoyloy-kai-antonis-mylonakis-meta-tis-aitiaseis-peri-apostasias/

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

The buying and selling of MP's is (allegedly) frequent in Greece, here is an alleged (alleged only because the greek courts fudge ) attempt in 2014 in order for then PM Samaras to obtain enough MP's to prevent a 2015 early election, it's in greek but it has a 1 hour recorded video of the attempt.

https://www.zougla.gr/politiki/article/to-video-pou-den-ide-to-fos-tis-dimosiotitas

Here is a publication in english of the case, without videos though:

https://www.tovima.gr/2014/12/22/international/apostolopoulos-denies-involvement-in-attempted-haikalis-bribery/

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/165666/parliaments-ethics-panel-mulls-haikalis-bribery-claims-copies-video-for-party-leaders-update/

13 MP's (a record at that time) switched their allegiance to Samaras in that effort, but he still fell short.

Mitsotakis himself is not inexperienced in those things, his father became PM and was toppled by the same practices in 1990 and 1993.

[oldtimer]

Yeah, I would assume that the current PASOK voter base is basically elderly, that is still reminiscent of the "glory days" of Andreas governments.

Also, is this having any impact in the campaign?:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1647993762667274246

Lots of pre-election fire and fury by the parties, an impact however probably not:

1.There are very few swing voters in Greece during an election campaign, most people have already decided months ago.

2.That MEP has a loyal female fanbase that is already out to defend him.

3.The potential love triangle with the Leader of PASOK complicates things.

4.SYRIZA makes the argument of why did the accusation of a rape 3 years ago happen now, which will be convincing enough for their voters.

Anything that gets published from now on will probably only move the neddle 1% here or there, so it's mostly for gossip.

[Mike88]

Wait, the woman in question is Eleni Chronopoulou, right? She was Nikos Androulakis ex-girlfriend? I'm not finding that anywhere.

[oldtimer]

Wait, the woman in question is Eleni Chronopoulou, right? She was Nikos Androulakis ex-girlfriend? I'm not finding that anywhere.

I think his private sex life is protected by european data protection laws since he is an MEP, local greek newspapers have published it though.

Androulakis has guarded his private life very well, most people don't know that he even has a family, so the list of his past girlfriends are probably only available to journalists.

[oldtimer]

Here is a Bonus:

Varoufakis has published his Plan B for Greece to leave the Eurozone, with just an 8 year delay after the deadline of the summer of 2015, called Plan Dimitra (why call it Dimitra ?):

https://hellas.postsen.com/local/310203/Varoufakis-I-hope-we-don%E2%80%99t-go-to-the-drachma-%E2%80%93-If-necessary-we-will-be-paid%E2%80%A6-with-DIMITRA.html

Basically government issued crypto.

[Mike88]

Here is a Bonus:

Varoufakis has published his Plan B for Greece to leave the Eurozone, with just an 8 year delay after the deadline of the summer of 2015, called Plan Dimitra (why call it Dimitra ?):

https://hellas.postsen.com/local/310203/Varoufakis-I-hope-we-don%E2%80%99t-go-to-the-drachma-%E2%80%93-If-necessary-we-will-be-paid%E2%80%A6-with-DIMITRA.html

Basically government issued crypto.

He's still defending that?? God...

[oldtimer]

Here is a Bonus:

Varoufakis has published his Plan B for Greece to leave the Eurozone, with just an 8 year delay after the deadline of the summer of 2015, called Plan Dimitra (why call it Dimitra ?):

https://hellas.postsen.com/local/310203/Varoufakis-I-hope-we-don%E2%80%99t-go-to-the-drachma-%E2%80%93-If-necessary-we-will-be-paid%E2%80%A6-with-DIMITRA.html

Basically government issued crypto.

He's still defending that?? God...

Why did he publish it now ?
The time for such things was before the bailouts ruined the economy, not years after.

The economy has been a an Ace for Mitsotakis since his version of Reaganomics performed better than IMF austerity, there is even a budget surpus this year even after all the splurges.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here is a Bonus:

Varoufakis has published his Plan B for Greece to leave the Eurozone, with just an 8 year delay after the deadline of the summer of 2015, called Plan Dimitra (why call it Dimitra ?):

https://hellas.postsen.com/local/310203/Varoufakis-I-hope-we-don%E2%80%99t-go-to-the-drachma-%E2%80%93-If-necessary-we-will-be-paid%E2%80%A6-with-DIMITRA.html

Basically government issued crypto.

He's still defending that?? God...

The guy is a narcissistic moron who still believes that he would have saved us in 2015 if only we called EU's bluff and exited Eurozone. He should be rotting in a jail for treason instead of strutting like a peacock in the parliament.

[oldtimer]

Summary of Week 5 of the Campaign:

Terrible week for the Opposition.

1. Varoufakis published his Plan Dimitra about Bank Closures and Eurozone Exits as mentioned previously.

That led to Tsipras to publicly say that Varoufakis will not be part of any coalition after PASOK denounced Varoufakis.

So that's the end for any possible Center-Left coalition government, Varoufakis killed it.

2. The Velopoulos party implodes.
After the public revelations about some of his MP's taking bribes from Mitsotakis to join him, one of those MP's fired back by saying he gave 500 euros a month in brown paper bags to Velopoulos, Velopoulos is now under investigation for tax fraud.

https://newsbulletin247.com/politics/314396.html
https://hellas.postsen.com/trends/320109/In-the-shadow-of-complaints-in-Patras-today-K-Velopoulos.html


3.Party Bans
For the first time since the 1967 Military Coup, parties can now be banned and by a simple majority, and the first two bans were a surprise, some small ND splinter parties.

That has led to a flurry of lawsuits seeking the ban of other political parties, even against the Communist Party.

4. Mitsotakis promises a 4th minimum wage rise.
He already has increased the minimum wage by around 20% and he promised a further 20% increase.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1209661/pm-unveils-program-for-next-four-years/

A clever way to increase tax receips from payroll taxes, but at a cost of derailing the economy for the long term. You can't devalue the Euro.

5. The MEP rape case.
Warning, be suspicious of salacious claims by tabloids:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Α tabloid published on it's front page what it says to be frames from a sex tape of the leader of PASOK with the woman in the middle of the rape accusations.

https://www.naftemporiki.gr/frontpages/latest/imerisies-politikes/makeleio/full/?filter_date=21/04/2023

The rest of that tabloid's claims are that the leader of PASOK was spied on, to obtain evidence of his depravity to blackmail him,  a very dirty case, hence the warning.

I only include this because it claims to be frames from a sex tape on the front page of a relatively high circulation newspaper, and it has affected the opinion polls a bit, otherwise I wouldn't care

I never liked that case and I will never post anything about it again.

The effect on all the above this week has been a squeeze on PASOK , an increased lead for Mitsotakis, and the disappearance of right wing parties.

Now the consensus among the press is :

Mitsotakis 36-37%
Tsipras 30-31%
PASOK 9-10%
Communists 5-6%
Varoufakis 4-5%
Velopoulos 3-4%

That 37% combined with Party Bans will be enough for Mitsotakis to form a government in the 2nd election on July 2nd.

We still have 3 weeks for the 1st election, but I think it might be over, although there are party debates scheduled.

[jaichind]

I assume KKE will not join any Center-Left coalition no matter what right?

[oldtimer]

I assume KKE will not join any Center-Left coalition no matter what right?

They always oppose eveything on the national level.

They always cooperate on anything on a local level, as long as you hire their party members.

They are practically the only functioning labour union in Greece, because they have direct political representation, something very rare for a labour union in this world.

[oldtimer]

The list is official, 14 political parties were banned from participating in the elections, mostly right of center parties and ND splinters.

There is speculation in the press that more parties will be banned depending on the results of the 1st election in order to ensure that Mitsotakis has a majority after the 2nd elections.

Velopoulos has called for voters of the banned parties to support him as he is only one of the 3 right of center parties that haven't been banned yet, the other is the Tsimeros party, and a party of a ex-senior Judge.

[JimJamUK]

The list is official, 14 political parties were banned from participating in the elections, mostly right of center parties and ND splinters.

There is speculation in the press that more parties will be banned depending on the results of the 1st election in order to ensure that Mitsotakis has a majority after the 2nd elections.

Velopoulos has called for voters of the banned parties to support him as he is only one of the 3 right of center parties that haven't been banned yet, the other is the Tsimeros party, and a party of a ex-senior Judge.

Are they all (rightly or wrongly) perceived as extremist parties or are there mainstream parties the government simply didn’t want siphoning off votes?