Suburban realignment

[Arbitrage1980]

At the presidential level at least, it looks like it went through several stages of these suburbs being realigned to Dems

1992-1996: northeastern and california suburbs
2008: NOVA, research triangle NC, Chicago suburbs, Denver suburbs
2016-2020: Atlanta suburbs, Phoenix suburbs, further erosion in DFW and traditional GOP suburbs such as WOW counties of WI, Delaware OH, Hamilton IN, El Paso CO.

[Roll Roons]

If anything, the Boston and Bay Area suburbs flipped in 1988. Not a coincidence that those two are probably the most liberal large metro areas and that they were the first to realign from R to D.

[Arbitrage1980]

If anything, the Boston and Bay Area suburbs flipped in 1988. Not a coincidence that those two are probably the most liberal large metro areas and that they were the first to realign from R to D.

Yeah, by northeast, I should have been more specific: Philly suburbs, westchester NY, fairfield CT

[NorCalifornio]

At the presidential level at least, it looks like it went through several stages of these suburbs being realigned to Dems

1992-1996: northeastern and california suburbs
2008: NOVA, research triangle NC, Chicago suburbs, Denver suburbs
2016-2020: Atlanta suburbs, Phoenix suburbs, further erosion in DFW and traditional GOP suburbs such as WOW counties of WI, Delaware OH, Hamilton IN, El Paso CO.

Basically just Bay Area suburbs, which really started a little earlier as Roll Roons pointed out. For the most part, suburbs of LA, San Diego, and Sacramento didn't really flip until 2008, in some cases 2016-2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep in mind W did worse in Fairfax than Dole

[Arbitrage1980]

Keep in mind W did worse in Fairfax than Dole

Yup. W Bush also did worse than Dole in Philly suburbs.

Obama did better in Mahoning County OH than in Fairfax County VA?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The pattern seems to be that the more Democratic the city proper, the quicker the suburbs realigned. It would go a long way to explaining why the suburbs of uber-Democratic Boston and San Francisco realigned as early as Dukakis, while somewhere like Phoenix still has quite a few Republican suburbs.

New York is one of the weirder ones. The city proper (minus Staten) is heavily Democratic, and while Westchester follows the familiar pattern of starting realignment early and is deep blue now, Long Island and Staten Island are trending Republican if anything. I guess with NYC, some of this is ethnic, with white ethnics (especially Italians) becoming more Republican and WASPs becoming more Democratic. I wonder if a part of it is also that New York is just so big that the suburbs have their own distinct identities and are therefore more detached from the trends of the core than your average American city.

[Ragnaroni]

At the presidential level at least, it looks like it went through several stages of these suburbs being realigned to Dems

1992-1996: northeastern and california suburbs
2008: NOVA, research triangle NC, Chicago suburbs, Denver suburbs
2016-2020: Atlanta suburbs, Phoenix suburbs, further erosion in DFW and traditional GOP suburbs such as WOW counties of WI, Delaware OH, Hamilton IN, El Paso CO.

Sounds about right, how can the Republicans take the suburbs back or at least hold onto them?

[pbrower2a]

Suburbanites are typically well-educated and proud of it, especially if minorities. Any political party that delves into anti-intellectualism to the extent of ridiculing the college degrees necessary for certain work goes beyond the 'safe' level of debunking the wayward professors and creative people.

Offend any sensibility, and one loses that constituency. It's telling that one of the shared characteristics of Eisenhower and Obama voters was having an above-average education by the standards of the time. To be sure the conduct and temperament of both were much the same, but they won much the same states. 

[Arbitrage1980]

At the presidential level at least, it looks like it went through several stages of these suburbs being realigned to Dems

1992-1996: northeastern and california suburbs
2008: NOVA, research triangle NC, Chicago suburbs, Denver suburbs
2016-2020: Atlanta suburbs, Phoenix suburbs, further erosion in DFW and traditional GOP suburbs such as WOW counties of WI, Delaware OH, Hamilton IN, El Paso CO.

Sounds about right, how can the Republicans take the suburbs back or at least hold onto them?

Well, suburbs are not monolithic. We are not winning back highly educated and affluent counties like Fairfax VA, Loudoun VA, Chester PA, Westchester NY, Lake, IL, etc. But we can improve with middle income suburban voters, especially those without college degrees. First step is not nominating Trump again! Trump 2020 took a big hit with white male voters in GOP suburbs such as VA Beach VA, Forsyth GA, Hamilton IN, Delaware OH, Waukesha WI, El Paso CO, Collin TX, etc.

[pbrower2a]

Barring death or debility, those who voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 would vote for him again in a general election in 2024. He would lose to new voters about 60-40 as he did in 2020, and that means an erosion in his percentage of the vote. That's before I even look at the effects of the Capitol Putsch which I best described as incalculable until 2024,

As Suburbia ages or becomes legitimately urban it takes on the voting characteristics of the nearby Big City. Trump, to be sure, is the definitive City Slicker, but what makes city slickers obnoxious in rural areas wears on people in urban and suburban America too.   

[TodayJunior]

At the presidential level at least, it looks like it went through several stages of these suburbs being realigned to Dems

1992-1996: northeastern and california suburbs
2008: NOVA, research triangle NC, Chicago suburbs, Denver suburbs
2016-2020: Atlanta suburbs, Phoenix suburbs, further erosion in DFW and traditional GOP suburbs such as WOW counties of WI, Delaware OH, Hamilton IN, El Paso CO.

Sounds about right, how can the Republicans take the suburbs back or at least hold onto them?

They can’t. They can only minimize losses. They’re about to lose the last holdouts which I think would include all the DFW counties, OKC, Chattanooga, etc. This of course assumes MAGA's continuous grip on the party at large.