Are there any black majority precincts that voted Republican?

[Ragnaroni]

Are there any? I would love to know which ones.3

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes, one would expect there to be quite a lot of these in the rural South. In places with a small black majority where white turnout is higher than black turnout, you will get a majority-white electorate in spite of the majority-black population, and if white voters are as Republican as black voters are Democratic, then such places will vote Republican.

At the county level, you can see this in Georgia with Dooly and Early counties, both of which are (just barely) majority-black counties that voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election. At the precinct level, you can find many more examples.

On the other hand, if you're looking for majority-black precincts where a majority of black voters voted Republican, you won't find any unless you count microprecincts with single-digit vote totals.

[Ragnaroni]

Yes, one would expect there to be quite a lot of these in the rural South. In places with a small black majority where white turnout is higher than black turnout, you will get a majority-white electorate in spite of the majority-black population, and if white voters are as Republican as black voters are Democratic, then such places will vote Republican.

At the county level, you can see this in Georgia with Dooly and Early counties, both of which are (just barely) majority-black counties that voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election. At the precinct level, you can find many more examples.

On the other hand, if you're looking for majority-black precincts where a majority of black voters voted Republican, you won't find any unless you count microprecincts with single-digit vote totals.

Thanks, I was asking for the latter.

[Sol]

The big standout example of this is West Feliciana Parish Precinct 13, which is majority Black on total population but votes Republican because the vast majority of the Black population is incarcerated at Angola State Prison. Unfortunately this doesn't show up on 2020 census data because of the Census Bureau's heinous "differential privacy" data smudging, but based on Louisiana state prison data it's definitely still the case.

This points to a bigger issue, which is that this kind of granular detail is much less accurate now than it used to be. There are probably a few precincts which will appear in data as majority Black but voting Republican, but it's increasingly impossible to tell which ones of these are census data relics and which are actual examples of the phenomena Xahar discusses.

[Sol]

Yes, one would expect there to be quite a lot of these in the rural South. In places with a small black majority where white turnout is higher than black turnout, you will get a majority-white electorate in spite of the majority-black population, and if white voters are as Republican as black voters are Democratic, then such places will vote Republican.

At the county level, you can see this in Georgia with Dooly and Early counties, both of which are (just barely) majority-black counties that voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election. At the precinct level, you can find many more examples.

On the other hand, if you're looking for majority-black precincts where a majority of black voters voted Republican, you won't find any unless you count microprecincts with single-digit vote totals.

Dooly has a fairly sizable prison as well, which iirc is part of why it votes how it does.