UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

Thursday 16 February

Andrew Teale's previews

Cornwall; Long Rock, Marazion & St Erth

Lib Dem 811 (45.4%, +22.0)
Con 503 (28.1%, -8.3)
Green 244 (13.6%, +2.5)
Lab 230 (12.9%, +1.2)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Barnet; Golders Green

Con 1623 (66.8%, +1.6)
Lab 547 (22.5%, +3.0)
Rejoin EU 99 (4.1%, new)
Green 94 (3.9%, -2.3)
Lib Dem 65 (2.7%, -3.0)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Con hold

Cambridgeshire County Council; St Neots The Eatons

Lib Dem 1042 (43.5%, new)
Con 746 (31.1%, -5.3)
Ind Maslen 360 (15.0%, new)
Lab 260 (10.4%, -2.5)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from St Neots Independents who did not defend the seat

Sefton; Netherton & Orrell

Lab 1001 (82.5%, +9.3 on 2022, +7.3 on 2021, +9.8 on 2019)
Con 119 (9.8%, +2.4 on 2022, -0.7 on 2021, +4.1 on 2019)
Ind Champian 94 (7.7%, new)

Lab hold

[YL]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, though it should be remembered the overall Tory result in Barnet last year was poor.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It should also be remembered that Golders Green is anyway likely to be somewhere where the Tory vote is particularly robust.

[YL]

It should also be remembered that Golders Green is anyway likely to be somewhere where the Tory vote is particularly robust.

Lewis Baston wrote an article making that point.

[JimJamUK]

Lewis Baston wrote an article making that point.

He makes an interesting point about the difference between Orthodox and more liberal Jews when it comes to voting. It certainly makes sense when you look abroad eg; America and Israel, and I would assume the same applies here, but has there actually ever been any polling or analysis than finds a significant difference here in the UK?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's the sort of thing that is known, for want of a better way of putting it, and is one reason why attempts at political surveys of the community have always been problematic and apt to differ quite wildly. Though, as Baston hints at quite correctly, things are even more complicated than just the obvious divide between Orthodox and not.

[YL]

Thursday 23 February

Andrew Teale's previews

Aberdeen; Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone

First preferences

SNP 1455 (30.8%, -10.5)
Lab 1227 (26.0%, +8.2)
Con 1190 (25.2%, -1.0)
Lib Dem 452 (9.6%, +0.8)
Alba 178 (3.8%, new)
Green 111 (2.3%, -2.2)
Scottish Family Party 60 (1.3%, -0.1)
Ind McLean 52 (1.1%, new)

Lab gain from Con after transfers; here's a diagram from Ballot Box Scotland showing the transfers:
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1629085293683920897

Wrexham; Smithfield

Plaid Cymru 152 (38.2%, -3.1)
Lab 128 (32.2%, -2.2)
Ind Johnson 59 (14.8%, new)
Lib Dem 29 (7.3%, new)
Ind Bennett 19 (4.8%, -10.9)
Ind Prince 11 (2.8%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Plaid Cymru hold

[YL]

That Aberdeen result seems rather good for Labour and poor for the SNP.

(It's a gain from Con, but it's one of those AV by-elections in STV systems where the incumbent party was always likely to lose.)

[CumbrianLefty]

And yet Labour failed to take the much "easier" target in North Wales.

[oldtimer]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

It continues the patterm of the past 10 years of Conservatives doing really well on local council by-elections, by I never pay much electoral attention to them.
Probably because over 65's are by far the best age cohort for them, and they are mostly the only ones that vote in such elections.

[YL]

And yet Labour failed to take the much "easier" target in North Wales.

Different defending parties (could the SNP leadership situation have had an effect in Aberdeen?), inevitably different circumstances.  I wouldn't think there's much about the UK-wide position you can read into a Plaid/Labour marginal in a local election in an English speaking part of Wales; I doubt Plaid have much strength there in General Elections.

[CumbrianLefty]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

It continues the patterm of the past 10 years of Conservatives doing really well on local council by-elections, by I never pay much electoral attention to them.

They haven't been "doing really well" in most contests for a while now, do try to keep up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't think there's much about the UK-wide position you can read into a Plaid/Labour marginal in a local election in an English speaking part of Wales; I doubt Plaid have much strength there in General Elections.

You can't, as a rule, read that much into a local by-election in North Wales full stop.

[oldtimer]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

It continues the patterm of the past 10 years of Conservatives doing really well on local council by-elections, by I never pay much electoral attention to them.

They haven't been "doing really well" in most contests for a while now, do try to keep up.

Doing really well relatively to the opinion polls.

[CumbrianLefty]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

It continues the patterm of the past 10 years of Conservatives doing really well on local council by-elections, by I never pay much electoral attention to them.

They haven't been "doing really well" in most contests for a while now, do try to keep up.

Doing really well relatively to the opinion polls.

Even that's not generally true recently, the occasional outlier result aside.

[YL]

Thursday 2 March

Andrew Teale's previews

Kent County Council; Hythe West

Green 1568 (43.8%, +6.0)
Con 1081 (30.2%, -18.9)
Lab 384 (10.7%, +1.2)
Ind Meyers 306 (8.6%, new)
Ind Weatherhead 237 (6.6%, "new"; see below)
changes from 2021

NB: Ind Weatherhead is the originally Conservative councillor whose resignation caused the by-election

Green gain from Con

Oxfordshire County Council; Rose Hill & Littlemore

Lab 1169 (43.9%, -8.4)
Ind Evans 1046 (39.3%, +27.7)
Con 227 (8.5%, -9.1)
Green 120 (4.5%, -8.6)
Lib Dem 75 (2.8%, -2.6)
TUSC 23 (0.9%, new)
changes from 2021

Lab hold

Oxford; Littlemore

Lab 607 (44.9%; +0.6 on 2022, -5.8 on 2021 top)
Ind Evans 507 (37.5%; new)
Con 135 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, -13.0 on 2021 top)
Green 65 (4.8%; -1.7 on 2022, -10.6 on 2021 top)
Lib Dem 26 (1.9%; -1.5 on 2022, -8.1 on 2021 top)
TUSC 12 (0.9%; new)

Lab hold

Staffordshire County Council; Watling South

Con 858 (46.6%, -20.0)
Lab 714 (38.8%, +10.1)
Lib Dem 160 (8.7%, new)
Reform UK 110 (6.0%, new)
changes from 2021

Con hold

Tamworth; Belgrave

Con 334 (34.3%; -8.1 on 2022, -26.6 on 2021, -5.0 on 2019)
Lab 314 (32.2%; -3.5 on 2022, -1.0 on 2021, +5.2 on 2019)
Ind Taylor 251 (25.8%; new)
Reform UK 40 (4.1%; new)
Green 35 (3.6%; -2.5 on 2022, new from 2021, -2.7 on 2019)

Con hold

Newcastle upon Tyne; Byker

Lab 591 (46.9%; -18.1 on 2022, -11.1 on 2021 top, -7.8 on 2019)
Green 375 (29.7%; +15.3 on 2022, +15.1 on 2021 top, +20.1 on 2019)
Lib Dem 188 (14.9%; +9.2 on 2022, +9.6 on 2021 top, +10.8 on 2019)
Con 107 (8.5%; -6.5 on 2022, -13.7 on 2021 top, +3.4 on 2019)

Lab hold

[YL]

The Tamworth result seems a bit underwhelming for Labour, though of course it's hard to judge how things might have gone without the Independent.  (The Staffs County Council election, also in Tamworth, for which we're still waiting, doesn't have an Independent, but the areas involved don't overlap.)

Edit: the County Council result was a bit better, still not enough to gain the seat, but it is the sort of place where Con+UKIP were over 70% in 2021.

[CumbrianLefty]

The CC division is a stronger Tory area of Tamworth than the DC seat, and thus indicates there is a very good chance Labour would have won the latter but for the Independent intervention.

[YL]

One other thing: those Reform UK performances.  Surely Tamworth is the sort of area they ought to be getting decent vote shares if they are anywhere?

[YL]

Thursday 9 March

Andrew Teale's previews

Edinburgh; Murrayfield/Corstorphine

Lib Dem 4577 (56.0%, +6.2)
SNP 1086 (13.3%, -5.4)
Con 788 (9.6%, -6.3)
Lab 568 (7.0%, -0.9)
Green 417 (5.1%, -1.8)
Ind Miller 327 (4.0%, new)
Ind Gregson 295 (3.6%, new)
Scottish Family Party 90 (1.1%, +0.3)
Libertarian 20 (0.2%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lib Dem gain from SNP

Haringey; Tottenham Hale

Lab 818 (58.7%, -9.5)
Lib Dem 203 (14.6%, +6.6)
Green 192 (13.8%, -1.8)
Con 81 (5.8%, -2.5)
Ind Negusse Ghebreawariat 64 (4.6%, new)
Christian People's Alliance 35 (2.5%, new)
changes from 2022 top vote

Lab hold

Hounslow; Heston West

Lab 1104 (52.4%, -11.8)
Lib Dem 470 (22.3%, new)
Con 419 (19.9%, -0.1)
Green 65 (3.1%, -12.2)
Ind Kuleba 48 (2.3%, new)
changes from 2022 top vote

Lab hold

[YL]

As usual for a by-election in an STV system the "Lib Dem gain from SNP" message in Edinburgh is a little misleading, but it is still a good result for the former and underwhelming for the latter.  With the Lib Dem share above 50% they win on the first round, so no need for transfers; indeed in a three seat STV election on those percentages it's possible that three well balanced Lib Dem candidates might take all three seats in the ward.

[CumbrianLefty]

Scottish Libertarians with their usual score, never ceases to amuse.

[YL]

Thursday 16 March

Andrew Teale's previews

South Cambridgeshire; Cottenham

Lib Dem 864 (41.7%, -21.3)
Con 678 (32.7%, +12.4)
Lab 373 (18.0%, new)
Green 107 (5.2%, -11.5)
Ind Pilsworth 52 (2.5%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lib Dem hold

Stirling; Dunblane & Bridge of Allan

First preferences:
Con 1832 (41.0%, +11.0)
SNP 1202 (26.9%, +1.0)
Lab 600 (13.4%, +1.5)
Lib Dem 399 (8.9%, -0.5)
Green 389 (8.7%, -7.3)
Scottish Family Party 50 (1.1%, +0.4)
(changes from 2022 first preferences)

Con gain from SNP
(transfer figures don't seem to be available yet)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Surely with STV you could just redo the original election count, distributing the former incumbents preferences?